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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4, 2026 · Bank of America Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 4
It turned at Q3 7:53, 1st and 25, on Isaac TeSlaa — 15.0 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Carolina Panthers 32–26. Biggest swing: Q3 7:53, Lions +15.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 7:53 · 1st and 25
Isaac TeSlaa
Lions
(7:53) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 18-I.TeSlaa to CAR 12 for 57 yards (29-A.Evans).
15.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Panthers won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Lions at 5 chunk plays.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Panthers won this one — +0.47 expected points per dropback, against Lions at +0.23 expected points per dropback.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Panthers won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Lions at 46% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Panthers won this one — 5 of 12 on third down, against Lions at 4 of 12 on third down.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 13.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
(7:53) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 18-I.TeSlaa to CAR 12 for 57 yards (29-A.Evans).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Tetairoa McMillan's 10-yard touchdown catch with 9:37 left in the 3rd put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Tetairoa McMillan32-yd TD catch32-yard touchdown catchfrom Bryce Young · kick no good, hit right upright+66–13Tetairoa McMillan10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Bryce Young · kick no good, wide rightLead never changed again+616–2212 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Lionscategory by categoryPanthers
Panthers ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Lions, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 68 snaps at a 78% dropback rate against Panthers’s 70 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Lions 4, Panthers 5.
Panthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs 0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CAR's pass rate over expected, +9.2 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 0.8 points clear of the next team along.
70 snaps this game, floor 20 — 5 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.1 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
DET's play-action rate turned over: 41.7% in week 3 against 20.8% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 5 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
DET's sack or hit rate turned over: 13.0% in week 3 against 26.7% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 5 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Lions3.2 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +2.5 vs their 0.7 pts, and they swing ±2.4 week to week (+1.04× that swing) · 68 snaps
Panthers9.2 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +4.3 vs their 4.8 pts, and they swing ±4.1 week to week (+1.06× that swing) · 70 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 25% to 89%
Tendencies room →Lions71.7%leaned — passed early · +14.8 vs their 56.9%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (+1.19× that swing) · 53 early downs
Panthers60.7%right on their number · −0.8 vs their 61.5%, and they swing ±1.9 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 56 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 6% to 55%
Tendencies room →Lions20.8%leaned — dropped back clean · −12.3 vs their 33.1%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−1.48× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Panthers37.8%leaned — faked the run · +12.5 vs their 25.2%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+1.70× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 7% to 60%
Fourth Down room →Lions—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Panthers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 70%
Tendencies room →Lions15.6%inside their normal wobble · −14.8 vs their 30.4%, and they swing ±15.6 week to week (−0.95× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Panthers32.1%inside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their 37.1%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (−0.53× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 33%
Tendencies room →Lions26.7%leaned — got home · +7.9 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+1.44× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Panthers5.7%leaned — stayed blocked · −7.4 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−1.19× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
CAR's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 37.8%, 12.5 points above their season mean of 25.2% and 1.7 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Carolina Panthers
49 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · DET
32/52, 412 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
12.3 expected points added · -1.8% completion over expected
Passing · CAR
29/41, 329 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
20.5 expected points added · +9.0% completion over expected
Receiving · CAR
14/16 for 192 yds, 2 TD
41% of team targets · 16.7 expected points added
Receiving · DET
6/8 for 102 yds, 0 TD
16% of team targets · 7.1 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Tetairoa McMillan banked 17.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillanWR · Alpha Receiver | 45.2 | +17.8 | 89% | — | 41% | 48% | 14/16, 192 yd, 2 TD |
| Chuba HubbardRB · Bell Cow Back | 25.9 | +11.0 | 84% | — | 5% | 2% | 20 car, 122 yd, 2 TD · 1/2, 7 yd |
| Sam LaPortaTE · Alpha Receiver | 22.4 | −2.6 | 79% | — | 25% | 24% | 8/13, 84 yd, 1 TD |
| Bryce YoungQB · Starter QB | 21.5 | +1.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 29/41, 329 yd, 2 TD · 3 car, 3 yd |
| Jared GoffQB · Starter QB | 20.5 | −5.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 32/52, 412 yd, 1 TD |
| Jahmyr GibbsRB · Bell Cow Back | 17.7 | −5.3 | 87% | — | 14% | 4% | 15 car, 46 yd, 1 TD · 4/7, 31 yd |
| Jameson WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 16.2 | +2.1 | 99% | — | 16% | 28% | 6/8, 102 yd |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Featured Receiver | 15.5 | −4.2 | 96% | — | 22% | 20% | 8/11, 75 yd |
| Isaac TeSlaaWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.5 | −0.9 | 82% | — | 16% | 22% | 4/8, 95 yd |
| John Metchie IIIWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.7 | −2.1 | 37% | — | 13% | 13% | 3/5, 37 yd |
| Darren WallerTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.6 | −5.2 | 53% | — | 15% | 16% | 3/6, 36 yd |
| Brycen TremayneWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.2 | −0.1 | 92% | — | 8% | 12% | 2/3, 32 yd |
| Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.2 | −0.7 | 51% | — | 10% | 1% | 4/4, 12 yd |
| Sione VakiRB | 2.7 | −0.4 | 17% | — | 4% | 0% | 1/2, 17 yd |
| Mitchell EvansTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | 0.0 | 61% | — | 3% | 3% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Brock WrightTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −3.1 | 35% | — | 4% | 2% | 1/2, 8 yd |
| AJ DillonRB | 1.7 | −2.5 | 15% | — | 3% | 2% | 5 car, 2 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Anthony Tyus IIIRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Feleipe FranksTE | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| David MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Ja'Seem ReedWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.2 | 13% | — | 3% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Tay MartinWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Tom KennedyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Jacob SaylorsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 6 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(7:53) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 18-I.TeSlaa to CAR 12 for 57 yards (29-A.Evans).
Q3 7:53 · Lions · 1st & 25 at DET 31 · gained 57 · +4.03 EP · +15.4% win probability
184 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 198 plays across 20 drives, manual charting on 193. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
12 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 85 yards from the CAR 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
198 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
198 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Lions3
Panthers0Lions3Panthers6Lions3Panthers7Lions6Panthers7Lions6Panthers13Lions12Panthers13Lions13Panthers13Lions13Panthers16How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, five in the box.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
Lions16Panthers16Lions16Panthers22How the play was built
Shotgun, play action, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Lions19Panthers22Lions19Panthers28Lions19Panthers29Lions19Panthers32Lions25Panthers32Lions26Panthers32Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Lions at Panthers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 32/52 | 412 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +12.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 15 | 46 | 3.1 | 1 | −0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameson Williams | 6 | 8 | 102 | 0 | 16% | +7.1 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | 4 | 8 | 95 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Campbell | 6 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Izien | 7 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chuck Clark |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 29/41 | 329 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +20.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_04_DET_CAR
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Lions closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 52.5; the game landed 58 — over by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
| 16% |
| +1.2 |
| Sam LaPorta | 8 | 13 | 84 | 1 | 25% | +8.9 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 8 | 11 | 75 | 0 | 22% | −2.0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 4 | 7 | 31 | 0 | 14% | −2.6 |
| Sione Vaki | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 4% | +1.4 |
| Brock Wright | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Tyleik Williams | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Reed | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevor Nowaske | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alim McNeill | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aidan Hutchinson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Rodriguez | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ennis Rakestraw Jr. | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 20 | 122 | 6.1 | 2 | +3.6 |
| Bryce Young | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | −2.5 |
| AJ Dillon | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 | −4.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan | 14 | 16 | 192 | 2 | 41% | +16.7 |
| John Metchie III | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 13% | +5.2 |
| Darren Waller | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 | 15% | +3.6 |
| Brycen Tremayne | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 8% | +1.7 |
| Tommy Tremble | 4 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 10% | −1.1 |
| Mitchell Evans | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.6 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 5% | +0.4 |
| AJ Dillon | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Ja'Seem Reed | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akayleb Evans | 9 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Devin Lloyd | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Okereke | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tre'von Moehrig | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Lee III | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zakee Wheatley | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Princely Umanmielen | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lathan Ransom | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nick Scott | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Jones II | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
