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live · 12s tick · as of 3:38 PM ET · 5 h ago · 1 live · 1 to play · 12 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4, 2026 · Raymond James Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 4
It turned at Q4 9:13, 1st and 3, on Kaleb Johnson — 16.3 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Green Bay Packers 17–14 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 9:13, Buccaneers +16.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 9:13 · 1st and 3
Kaleb Johnson
Buccaneers
(9:13) (Shotgun) 26-K.Johnson up the middle to TB 3 for no gain (23-T.Smith). FUMBLES (23-T.Smith), touched at TB 3, RECOVERED by TB-27-Z.McCollum at TB 4.
16.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 5 of 12 on third down, against Packers at 2 of 9 on third down.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — +0.02 expected points per carry, against Packers at -0.27 expected points per carry.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Packers at 2 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.23 expected points per dropback, against Buccaneers at -0.08 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
(9:13) (Shotgun) 26-K.Johnson up the middle to TB 3 for no gain (23-T.Smith). FUMBLES (23-T.Smith), touched at TB 3, RECOVERED by TB-27-Z.McCollum at TB 4.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Trey Smack's 58-yard field goal with 0:02 left in the 2nd put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Trey Smack58-yd field goal58-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.OrzechLead never changed again+310–75 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Packerscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Packers ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 52 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 61 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Packers 3, Buccaneers 2.
Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TB's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, was the highest of the 20 team-games charted in week 4 — 6.7 points clear of the next team along.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 5 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 27.4 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
GB's sack or hit rate turned over: 3.8% in week 3 against 19.4% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 7 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
GB's early-down pass rate turned over: 80.0% in week 3 against 52.5% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 early downs this game, floor 15 — 7 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points. · −0.9σ from their own normal
GB's pass rate over expected turned over: +11.8 pts in week 3 against +1.0 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
52 snaps this game, floor 20 — 7 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.2 points. · −0.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32 pts to 21 pts
Over Expected room →Packers1.0 ptsright on their number · −2.4 vs their 3.3 pts, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.46× that swing) · 52 snaps
Buccaneers-6.4 ptsright on their number · −0.6 vs their -5.8 pts, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 6% to 96%
Tendencies room →Packers52.5%inside their normal wobble · −8.4 vs their 60.9%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.91× that swing) · 40 early downs
Buccaneers52.2%right on their number · +1.3 vs their 50.8%, and they swing ±17.6 week to week (+0.08× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11% to 55%
Tendencies room →Packers23.3%right on their number · +3.6 vs their 19.8%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Buccaneers30.6%inside their normal wobble · +7.9 vs their 22.6%, and they swing ±12.6 week to week (+0.63× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -50% to 118%
Fourth Down room →Packers60.0%right on their number · +8.7 vs their 51.3%, and they swing ±25.1 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Buccaneers66.7%leaned — went for it · +45.0 vs their 21.7%, and they swing ±27.4 week to week (+1.64× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 70%
Tendencies room →Packers52.8%leaned — sent pressure · +17.2 vs their 35.6%, and they swing ±13.4 week to week (+1.28× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Buccaneers26.7%leaned — sat back · −15.2 vs their 41.8%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−1.78× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 29%
Tendencies room →Packers19.4%inside their normal wobble · +6.1 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.97× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Buccaneers6.7%leaned — stayed blocked · −6.2 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.4 week to week (−1.43× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
TB's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 26.7%, 15.2 points below their season mean of 41.8% and 1.8 times their own 8.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 4
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · GB
22/30, 197 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
6.9 expected points added · +5.3% completion over expected
Passing · TB
19/27, 148 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-4.3 expected points added · +1.2% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Kenny Gainwell banked 6.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucker KraftTE · Featured Receiver | 16.5 | +0.8 | 92% | — | 23% | 1% | 1 car, 3 yd · 6/7, 42 yd, 1 TD |
| Jordan LoveQB · Starter QB | 13.1 | −3.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/30, 197 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, -8 yd |
| Matthew GoldenWR · Featured Receiver | 11.7 | −2.7 | 88% | — | 23% | 41% | 1 car, 6 yd · 3/7, 21 yd, 1 TD |
| Jalon DanielsQB · Starter QB | 11.4 | −2.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/27, 148 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 8 car, 55 yd |
| Kenny GainwellRB | 10.7 | +6.2 | 43% | — | 8% | 0% | 3 car, 5 yd · 2/2, 22 yd, 1 TD |
| MarShawn LloydRB · Committee Back | 9.9 | −3.8 | 55% | — | 17% | 0% | 7 car, 13 yd · 5/5, 36 yd |
| Chris Godwin Jr.WR · Alpha Receiver | 9.1 | 0.0 | 89% | — | 27% | 16% | 6/7, 31 yd |
| Christian WatsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.7 | +3.5 | 68% | — | 10% | 11% | 3/3, 47 yd |
| Cade OttonTE · Featured Receiver | 7.7 | −1.3 | 95% | — | 23% | 23% | 4/6, 37 yd |
| Sean TuckerRB | 7.0 | +4.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Bucky IrvingRB · Committee Back | 6.1 | −1.9 | 59% | — | 0% | — | 16 car, 61 yd |
| Mark RedmanTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | +1.8 | 47% | — | 7% | 10% | 2/2, 29 yd |
| Tez JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | +1.1 | 56% | — | 8% | 15% | 1 car, 10 yd · 2/2, 17 yd |
| Chris BrooksRB | 4.5 | −2.2 | 17% | — | 3% | 1% | 4 car, 30 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Ted Hurst IIIWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.5 | +0.7 | 40% | — | 12% | 27% | 2/3, 25 yd |
| Emeka EgbukaWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | −3.7 | 94% | — | 15% | 18% | 2/4, 13 yd |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | +0.8 | 22% | — | 3% | 6% | 1/1, 19 yd |
| Kaleb JohnsonRB | 2.2 | −3.8 | 28% | — | 0% | — | 8 car, 42 yd |
| Kameron JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −1.0 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Skyy MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.8 | −2.2 | 38% | — | 7% | 0% | 1/2, -2 yd |
| Bo MeltonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.5 | 18% | — | 3% | 12% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| J. Michael SturdivantWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Bauer SharpTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left intended for 0-M.Golden INTERCEPTED by 25-J.Parrish at TB 7. 25-J.Parrish to TB 15 for 8 yards (85-T.Kraft).
Q4 4:26 · Packers · 1st & 15 at TB 26 · gained nothing · -3.89 EP · −21.0% win probability
147 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 159 plays across 19 drives, manual charting on 154. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 84 yards from the TB 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, eight in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Packers6
Buccaneers0Packers7Buccaneers0Packers7Buccaneers6Packers7Buccaneers7How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
Packers10Buccaneers7Packers16Buccaneers7Packers17Buccaneers7Packers17Buccaneers13Packers17Buccaneers14How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Seven in the box.
How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, seven in the box.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Shotgun, empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, seven in the box.
How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, eight in the box.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Packers at Buccaneers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 22/30 | 197 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +6.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaleb Johnson | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 0 | −5.9 |
| Chris Brooks | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 | +0.9 |
| MarShawn Lloyd |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 | 10% | +4.9 |
| Tucker Kraft | 6 | 7 | 42 | 1 | 23% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin Cooper | 4 | 5 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Javon Bullard | 1 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaire Franklin |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalon Daniels | 19/27 | 148 | 1 | 2 | 3 | −4.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_04_GB_TB
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Packers closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 38.5; the game landed 31 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
| 7 |
| 13 |
| 1.9 |
| 0 |
| −3.0 |
| Matthew Golden | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Tucker Kraft | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | +1.9 |
| Jordan Love | 4 | -8 | -2.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| +4.0 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | 5 | 5 | 36 | 0 | 17% | +0.3 |
| Mark Redman | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 | 7% | +1.7 |
| Matthew Golden | 3 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 23% | −1.6 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 3% | +1.9 |
| Chris Brooks | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | −0.2 |
| J. Michael Sturdivant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Bo Melton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.9 |
| Skyy Moore | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 7% | −1.2 |
| 3 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Evan Williams | 3 | 4 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Keisean Nixon | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Brandon Cisse | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier McKinney | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lukas Van Ness | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah McDuffie | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brenton Cox Jr. | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | 16 | 61 | 3.8 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Jalon Daniels | 8 | 55 | 6.9 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Tez Johnson | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Sean Tucker | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 1 | +1.8 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Otton | 4 | 6 | 37 | 0 | 23% | +1.1 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 6 | 7 | 31 | 0 | 27% | +0.7 |
| Ted Hurst III | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 12% | +3.2 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 2 | 2 | 22 | 1 | 8% | +4.1 |
| Tez Johnson | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 8% | +0.2 |
| Emeka Egbuka | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 15% | −4.3 |
| Kameron Johnson | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8% | −4.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josiah Trotter | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antoine Winfield Jr. | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tykee Smith | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob Parrish | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Zyon McCollum | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Walker | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keionte Scott | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kameron Johnson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yaya Diaby | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Anzalone | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
