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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4, 2026 · Paycor Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 4
It turned at Q4 0:56, 4th and 10, on Chase Brown — 25.0 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Jacksonville Jaguars 22–17. Biggest swing: Q4 0:56, Jaguars +25.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:56 · 4th and 10
Chase Brown
Jaguars
(:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 30-C.Brown to JAX 12 for 9 yards (25-R.Lane).
25.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Jaguars won this one — no giveaways, against Bengals at 2 giveaways.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Jaguars won this one — +0.03 expected points per carry, against Bengals at -0.31 expected points per carry.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Jaguars won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Bengals at 3 chunk plays.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Jaguars won this one — +0.19 expected points per snap, against Bengals at +0.05 expected points per snap.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
(:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 30-C.Brown to JAX 12 for 9 yards (25-R.Lane).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Cam Little's 28-yard field goal with 4:19 left in the 2nd put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Cam Little28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.MatiscikLead never changed again+36–38 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Jaguarscategory by categoryBengals
Bengals ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Jaguars, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 53 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Bengals’s 71 at 82%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 3, Bengals 4.
Bengals outgained Jaguars 437-325 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
CIN's early-down pass rate, 78.9%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 7.2 points clear of the next team along.
57 early downs this game, floor 15 — 5 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.9 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 11 pts
Over Expected room →Jaguars-6.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · −2.3 vs their -3.7 pts, and they swing ±3.3 week to week (−0.70× that swing) · 52 snaps
Bengals8.4 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +3.0 vs their 5.4 pts, and they swing ±1.8 week to week (+1.61× that swing) · 71 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 28% to 94%
Tendencies room →Jaguars46.3%leaned — ran early · −6.6 vs their 53.0%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−1.09× that swing) · 41 early downs
Bengals78.9%leaned — passed early · +18.2 vs their 60.7%, and they swing ±12.9 week to week (+1.42× that swing) · 57 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 50%
Tendencies room →Jaguars28.6%right on their number · +4.3 vs their 24.3%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (+0.42× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Bengals15.5%right on their number · −1.1 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 58 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 7% to 60%
Fourth Down room →Jaguars—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Bengals—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 62%
Tendencies room →Jaguars17.2%leaned — sat back · −15.3 vs their 32.5%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (−1.35× that swing) · 58 dropbacks
Bengals28.6%leaned — sent pressure · +11.3 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+1.57× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 37%
Tendencies room →Jaguars19.0%right on their number · +4.0 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.47× that swing) · 58 dropbacks
Bengals25.0%leaned — got home · +7.0 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+1.26× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
CIN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 8.4 pts, 3.0 points above their season mean of 5.4 pts and 1.6 times their own 1.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · CIN
39/54, 428 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
7.4 expected points added · +9.8% completion over expected
Passing · JAX
18/23, 227 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
9.3 expected points added · +12.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. banked 6.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee HigginsWR · Alpha Receiver | 26.7 | −0.1 | 79% | — | 30% | 47% | 11/16, 157 yd |
| Joe BurrowQB · Starter QB | 23.7 | −2.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 39/54, 428 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 3 car, 6 yd, 1 TD |
| Chase BrownRB · Bell Cow Back | 19.1 | −1.2 | 79% | — | 21% | 2% | 9 car, 10 yd · 11/11, 71 yd |
| Brenton StrangeTE · Alpha Receiver | 16.5 | +2.5 | 87% | — | 35% | 36% | 7/8, 95 yd |
| Dohnte MeyersWR · Rotational Receiver | 15.2 | +1.5 | 89% | — | 17% | 14% | 7/9, 82 yd |
| Trevor LawrenceQB · Starter QB | 13.1 | +1.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/23, 227 yd, 1 TD · 3 car, 0 yd |
| Mike GesickiTE · Rotational Receiver | 13.0 | +2.9 | 62% | — | 9% | 13% | 3/5, 40 yd, 1 TD |
| Bhayshul TutenRB · Bell Cow Back | 11.1 | −0.6 | 59% | — | 9% | 0% | 17 car, 73 yd · 2/2, 18 yd |
| Brian Thomas Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 9.7 | +3.3 | 62% | — | 9% | 10% | 2/2, 17 yd, 1 TD |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB | 9.5 | +6.2 | 25% | — | 0% | — | 6 car, 35 yd, 1 TD |
| Mitchell TinsleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.9 | −3.9 | 53% | — | 13% | 21% | 3/7, 49 yd |
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.3 | −0.6 | 82% | — | 17% | 22% | 3/4, 33 yd |
| Josh CameronWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.2 | +3.3 | 36% | — | 9% | 4% | 2/2, 42 yd |
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.7 | +0.9 | 20% | — | 6% | 3% | 3/3, 27 yd |
| Nate BoerkircherTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | −0.4 | 34% | — | 9% | 6% | 1/2, 15 yd |
| Parker WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −4.3 | 80% | — | 13% | 23% | 1 car, 3 yd · 1/3, 7 yd |
| Tanner HudsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −0.5 | 41% | — | 2% | 0% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Samaje PerineRB | 0.7 | −2.3 | 36% | — | 2% | 0% | 3 car, 7 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| LeQuint Allen Jr.RB | 0.0 | — | 15% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Quintin MorrisTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Travis HunterWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Ameer AbdullahRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 30-C.Brown to JAX 12 for 9 yards (25-R.Lane).
Q4 0:56 · Bengals · 4th & 10 at JAX 21 · gained 9 · -2.30 EP · −26.4% win probability
163 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 177 plays across 18 drives, manual charting on 172. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 81 yards from the CIN 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Jaguars3
Bengals0Jaguars3Bengals3Jaguars6Bengals3How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, five in the box.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
Jaguars12Bengals3Jaguars13Bengals3How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Jaguars13Bengals9Jaguars13Bengals10Jaguars16Bengals10How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
Jaguars22Bengals10Jaguars22Bengals16Jaguars22Bengals17How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, five in the box.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Shotgun, two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Jaguars at Bengals, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 18/23 | 227 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +9.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bhayshul Tuten | 17 | 73 | 4.3 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 1 | +1.2 |
| Parker Washington |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brenton Strange | 7 | 8 | 95 | 0 | 35% | +6.0 |
| Josh Cameron | 2 | 2 | 42 | 0 | 9% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayuan Lane III | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Foyesade Oluokun | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jarrian Jones |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 39/54 | 428 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +7.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_04_JAX_CIN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bengals closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 51.5; the game landed 39 — under by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 3.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.2 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| +3.7 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 17% | +2.0 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 9% | +0.8 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 2 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 9% | +2.8 |
| Nate Boerkircher | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 9% | +0.4 |
| Parker Washington | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 13% | −2.1 |
| 7 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 3 |
| Ventrell Miller | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antonio Johnson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jourdan Lewis | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Travis Hunter | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Eric Murray | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Branson Combs | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quintin Morris | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 9 | 10 | 1.1 | 0 | −2.6 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 | −2.1 |
| Joe Burrow | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 1 | +0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 11 | 16 | 157 | 0 | 30% | +7.0 |
| Dohnte Meyers | 7 | 9 | 82 | 0 | 17% | +1.0 |
| Chase Brown | 11 | 11 | 71 | 0 | 21% | −0.7 |
| Mitchell Tinsley | 3 | 7 | 49 | 0 | 13% | −3.9 |
| Mike Gesicki | 3 | 5 | 40 | 1 | 9% | +3.3 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 6% | +5.1 |
| Tanner Hudson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2% | −0.5 |
| Samaje Perine | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrett Carter | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Demetrius Knight Jr. | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Boye Mafe | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Battle | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| PJ Jules | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DJ Turner II | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| D.J. Ivey | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Russ Yeast | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Allen | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Oren Burks | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
