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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:09 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4, 2026 · Allegiant Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 4
It turned at Q4 3:35, 3rd and 5, on Tyquan Thornton — 36.0 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Kansas City Chiefs 30–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:35, Chiefs +36.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 3:35 · 3rd and 5
Tyquan Thornton
Chiefs
(3:35) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 2-T.Thornton to LV 5 for 55 yards (31-T.Stukes). KC-2-T.Thornton was injured during the play. PENALTY on LV-7-Q.Walker, Unnecessary Roughness, 3 yards, enforced at LV 5.
36.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.22 expected points per carry, against Raiders at -0.24 expected points per carry.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Chiefs won this one — no giveaways, against Raiders at 2 giveaways.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chiefs won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Raiders at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Raiders owned this one and still lost it — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chiefs at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Raidersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 15.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
(3:35) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 2-T.Thornton to LV 5 for 55 yards (31-T.Stukes). KC-2-T.Thornton was injured during the play. PENALTY on LV-7-Q.Walker, Unnecessary Roughness, 3 yards, enforced at LV 5.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Kenneth Walker III's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 3:25 left in the 4th put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Kenneth Walker III2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no goodLead never changed again+623–1911 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chiefscategory by categoryRaiders
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Raiders, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 58 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Raiders’s 76 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 5, Raiders 4.
Raiders outgained Chiefs 439-400 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
KC's pass rate over expected turned over: +5.2 pts in week 3 against −2.7 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 5 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.0 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
KC's sack or hit rate turned over: 2.4% in week 3 against 20.0% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 5 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points. · +0.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10 pts to 13 pts
Over Expected room →Chiefs-2.7 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −5.6 vs their 2.9 pts, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (−1.41× that swing) · 57 snaps
Raiders-3.7 ptsinside their normal wobble · −1.2 vs their -2.5 pts, and they swing ±2.4 week to week (−0.52× that swing) · 75 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 39% to 72%
Tendencies room →Chiefs50.0%inside their normal wobble · −3.1 vs their 53.1%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 42 early downs
Raiders58.6%inside their normal wobble · +3.2 vs their 55.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.50× that swing) · 58 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 8% to 56%
Tendencies room →Chiefs32.4%right on their number · −2.9 vs their 35.2%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Raiders26.0%inside their normal wobble · +3.1 vs their 22.9%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.59× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19% to 105%
Fourth Down room →Chiefs33.3%inside their normal wobble · −14.6 vs their 47.9%, and they swing ±21.9 week to week (−0.67× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Raiders50.0%inside their normal wobble · +15.3 vs their 34.7%, and they swing ±20.6 week to week (+0.74× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 5% to 51%
Tendencies room →Chiefs22.0%inside their normal wobble · −5.4 vs their 27.4%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.94× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Raiders38.2%leaned — sent pressure · +11.2 vs their 27.0%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+1.32× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 36%
Tendencies room →Chiefs20.0%inside their normal wobble · +5.2 vs their 14.8%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+0.67× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Raiders20.6%right on their number · +0.3 vs their 20.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+0.06× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
KC's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -2.7 pts, 5.6 points below their season mean of 2.9 pts and 1.4 times their own 4.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · LV
31/52, 365 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
9.8 expected points added · -3.0% completion over expected
Passing · KC
15/30, 225 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
1.7 expected points added · -7.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Kenneth Walker III banked 11.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker IIIRB · Bell Cow Back | 30.9 | +11.7 | 75% | — | 4% | 0% | 22 car, 177 yd, 2 TD · 1/1, 2 yd |
| Tyquan ThorntonWR · Alpha Receiver | 28.1 | +9.9 | 63% | — | 30% | 44% | 5/8, 111 yd, 2 TD |
| Kirk CousinsQB · Starter QB | 22.6 | +2.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 31/52, 365 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT |
| Brock BowersTE · Featured Receiver | 20.6 | +1.2 | 82% | — | 23% | 34% | 6/11, 86 yd, 1 TD |
| Ashton JeantyRB · Committee Back | 18.6 | +0.1 | 67% | — | 17% | 2% | 15 car, 58 yd · 6/8, 68 yd |
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 17.0 | −1.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/30, 225 yd, 2 TD · 2 car, 0 yd |
| Michael MayerTE · Featured Receiver | 16.2 | +1.1 | 88% | — | 21% | 13% | 8/10, 82 yd |
| Ian ThomasTE · Rotational Receiver | 11.2 | +6.5 | 31% | — | 4% | 6% | 2/2, 32 yd, 1 TD |
| Xavier WorthyWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.0 | −2.0 | 75% | — | 26% | 36% | 4/7, 70 yd |
| Tre TuckerWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.4 | −6.5 | 67% | — | 17% | 30% | 4/8, 44 yd |
| Cody WhiteWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.6 | +0.6 | 62% | — | 8% | 13% | 2/4, 36 yd |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | −0.3 | 68% | — | 11% | 4% | 2/3, 17 yd |
| Travis KelceTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | −2.6 | 83% | — | 15% | 4% | 2/4, 15 yd |
| Mike Washington Jr.RB | 2.7 | −4.9 | 21% | — | 4% | 0% | 9 car, 18 yd · 1/2, -1 yd |
| Emmett JohnsonRB | 2.0 | +0.4 | 27% | — | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 10 yd |
| Dareke YoungWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −0.8 | 14% | — | 4% | 3% | 1/2, 9 yd |
| Connor HeywardRB | 1.5 | −0.8 | 23% | — | 2% | 0% | 2 car, -4 yd · 1/1, 9 yd |
| Jake BriningstoolTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 13% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Jalen RoyalsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.4 | 63% | — | 7% | 8% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Cyrus AllenWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.4 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Nikko RemigioWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Malik BensonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Dylan LaubeRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:35) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 2-T.Thornton to LV 5 for 55 yards (31-T.Stukes). KC-2-T.Thornton was injured during the play. PENALTY on LV-7-Q.Walker, Unnecessary Roughness, 3 yards, enforced at LV 5.
Q4 3:35 · Chiefs · 3rd & 5 at KC 40 · gained 55 · +5.24 EP · +34.9% win probability
179 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 191 plays across 23 drives, manual charting on 186. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 84 yards from the KC 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
191 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
191 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Chiefs0
Raiders6Chiefs0Raiders7How the play was built
Shotgun, play action, a man in motion.
Six rushed the passer, two of them blitzing, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
Chiefs6Raiders7Chiefs7Raiders7Chiefs7Raiders10How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, seven in the box.
Thrown on the second read.
Chiefs10Raiders10Chiefs10Raiders13How the play was built
Under center, nobody in motion.
Six in the box.
Chiefs16Raiders13Chiefs17Raiders13How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Chiefs17Raiders16Chiefs17Raiders19How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Chiefs23Raiders19Chiefs29Raiders19Chiefs30Raiders19Chiefs30Raiders25Chiefs30Raiders27How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, five in the box.
Thrown as a checkdown.
How the play was built
Shotgun, empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Two rushed the passer, three in the box.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chiefs at Raiders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 15/30 | 225 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 22 | 177 | 8.0 | 2 | +3.7 |
| Matt Araiza | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | +3.6 |
| Patrick Mahomes |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyquan Thornton | 5 | 8 | 111 | 2 | 30% | +9.1 |
| Xavier Worthy | 4 | 7 | 70 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mansoor Delane | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nick Bolton | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drue Tranquill |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 31/52 | 365 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +9.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_04_KC_LV
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -4.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 57 — over by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.5 |
| Khyiris Tonga | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −2.0 |
| 26% |
| +3.7 |
| Noah Gray | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 11% | −0.7 |
| Travis Kelce | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 15% | −0.2 |
| Emmett Johnson | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 4% | +0.5 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | −1.5 |
| Jalen Royals | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −2.5 |
| Cyrus Allen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.9 |
| 5 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| L'Jarius Sneed | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Chamarri Conner | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| George Karlaftis | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kristian Fulton | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Cochrane | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nohl Williams | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jeffrey Bassa | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 15 | 58 | 3.9 | 0 | −2.9 |
| Mike Washington Jr. | 9 | 18 | 2.0 | 0 | −4.1 |
| Connor Heyward | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | 6 | 11 | 86 | 1 | 23% | +5.0 |
| Michael Mayer | 8 | 10 | 82 | 0 | 21% | +1.7 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 6 | 8 | 68 | 0 | 17% | −0.7 |
| Tre Tucker | 4 | 8 | 44 | 0 | 17% | −1.6 |
| Cody White | 2 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 8% | +3.7 |
| Ian Thomas | 2 | 2 | 32 | 1 | 4% | +3.6 |
| Dareke Young | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 4% | −0.2 |
| Connor Heyward | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 2% | +0.7 |
| Mike Washington Jr. | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 4% | −2.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hezekiah Masses | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Quay Walker | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nakobe Dean | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Chinn | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Stokes | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Thomas Booker | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tonka Hemingway | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Foley Fatukasi | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Butler | 0 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Maxx Crosby | 0 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
