Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders — 2026 Week 4 | Box Score, Drive Chart & Win Probability

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Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders — 2026 Week 4 | Box Score, Drive Chart & Win Probability | Dynatyze

the 2025 regular season · the rooms, read for these two clubs

Two identities, on the league scale

Last season, labelled as last season

There is no 2026 play-by-play at all yet — the plays are about 20 minutes after each final, with the 5:00 AM ET nightly sync behind it and the Monday 4:00 AM ET weekly sync as the audited pass, and no game has been played. So every rate below is drawn from the 2025 regular season, labelled that way on purpose rather than dressed up as a forecast for this one.

Pass rate over expected

The Over Expected Room →

How far a play-caller ran from the pass rate the situation asked for, in percentage points. A team above zero passes more than the down, distance and score script called for; a team below it runs more. A scramble counts as a pass, because the model's idea of a pass is the dropback.

Chiefs

+3.9

2 of 32 · 1,045 plays

most run-heavymost pass-heavy

league mean -2.3 · 32 ranked

Raiders

-1.7

15 of 32 · 939 plays

Fourth downs, went for it

The Fourth Down Room →

Share of fourth downs on which the offence ran a play instead of kicking. The denominator is every fourth down with a decision on it — go, field goal or punt.

Chiefs

26.0%

10 of 32 · 123 fourth downs

most conservativemost aggressive

league mean 23.3% · 32 ranked

Blitz sent on defence

The Tendency Room →

Share of charted dropbacks this defence sent an extra rusher on. Charting is a separate feed from the play-by-play and it begins in 2022, so an older basis season has no blitz number at all.

Chiefs

38.9%

2 of 32 · 583 charted dropbacks

least blitz sentmost blitz sent

league mean 29.4% · 32 ranked

Drives that scored

The Drive Room →

Share of this offence's possessions that ended in a touchdown or a field goal.

Chiefs

42.0%

15 of 32 · 169 possessions

fewest drives scoredmost drives scored

league mean 39.6% · 32 ranked

Raiders

26.0%

Drives allowed to score

The Drive Room →

Share of opponent possessions this defence let end in points. Lower is better, and the rank reads that way — rank 1 is the stingiest defence in the league. Every possession in football is one team's drive and another team's stop, so POOLED over the league these are the same drives counted twice. The figure printed here is the unweighted mean of the qualifying clubs' rates, which is a different average: a club that faces more drives than it runs pulls the two apart, by a few hundredths over a full season and by a few tenths early in one.

Chiefs

37.7%

12 of 32 · 167 possessions defended

2025 regular season, weeks 1 through 18

The usage each side was carrying

Chiefs

Player	G	Snap	Tgt	Car	RZ	PPR
QBPatrick Mahomes	14	97.4%	0.2%	17.6%	15	20.4
TETravis Kelce	17	81.9%	20.0%	0.1%	14	11.4
WRXavier Worthy	13	75.6%	17.1%	3.3%	6	8.5
WRRashee Rice	8	74.9%	29.0%	2.6%	22	18.8
WRJuJu Smith-Schuster	17	57.2%	8.6%	0.0%	9	4.3
WRMarquise Brown	16	53.5%	14.2%	0.0%	10	8.6
TENoah Gray	14	52.9%	8.2%	0.0%	3	2.8
RBIsiah Pacheco	13	51.7%	6.8%	36.3%	24	6.7

Raiders

Player	G	Snap	Tgt	Car	RZ	PPR
QBGeno Smith	15	96.5%	0.0%	13.9%	7	11.6
WRTre Tucker	17	94.8%	19.0%	2.6%	11	9.5
WRJakobi Meyers

Note

Shares are the mean of a player's weekly share, over the games he cleared eight snaps in — not a season total divided by a season, which would let one enormous week stand in for a role. Weeks 19 through 22 are excluded by hand: the usage table spells every row's season type REG, playoffs included, so the week bound is what keeps the postseason out.

Scores & Schedule.

The game.

Scores & Schedule.

The game.

What the market is saying

Where these two disagree

Explosive plays, 20 yards or more

Expected points a play

Two identities, on the league scale

Pass rate over expected

Fourth downs, went for it

Blitz sent on defence

Drives that scored

Drives allowed to score

Who is expected on the field

Chiefs

Raiders

The usage each side was carrying

Chiefs

Raiders

The last 6 meetings

Take it with you

Game environment

Expected points a play

Third downs converted

Sacks on the dropback

Staying on schedule

Explosive plays, 20 yards or more

Staying on schedule

Sacks on the dropback

Third downs converted