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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4, 2026 · Lumen Field
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 4
It turned at Q1 10:13, 4th and 13 — 15.9 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Seattle Seahawks 30–23. Biggest swing: Q1 10:13, Seahawks +15.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 10:13 · 4th and 13
Unnamed on the sheet
Seahawks
(10:13) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to LAC 23, Center-41-C.Stoll. 12-D.Davis MUFFS catch, touched at LAC 25, RECOVERED by SEA-57-C.O'Toole at LAC 23.
15.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Seahawks at 2 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Seahawks won this one — 2 giveaways, against Chargers at 3 giveaways.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 5 of 15 on third down, against Seahawks at 3 of 12 on third down.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — +0.09 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.02 expected points per carry.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 6.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
(10:13) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to LAC 23, Center-41-C.Stoll. 12-D.Davis MUFFS catch, touched at LAC 25, RECOVERED by SEA-57-C.O'Toole at LAC 23.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Emanuel Wilson's 23-yard touchdown catch with 10:03 left in the 1st put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Emanuel Wilson23-yd TD catch23-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam DarnoldLead never changed again+73–710 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chargerscategory by categorySeahawks
Chargers ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Seahawks, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 68 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 56 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 3, Seahawks 6.
Chargers outgained Seahawks 301-288 but lost the turnover battle 3-2. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LAC's blitz rate sent turned over: 22.6% in week 3 against 34.6% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.8 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
SEA's early-down pass rate turned over: 68.5% in week 3 against 38.6% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.5 points. · −0.9σ from their own normal
SEA's blitz rate sent turned over: 14.3% in week 3 against 24.4% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.3 points. · +0.7σ from their own normal
SEA's pass rate over expected turned over: +8.9 pts in week 3 against −8.9 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
56 snaps this game, floor 20 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points. · −0.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Chargers-14.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their -9.8 pts, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 68 snaps
Seahawks-8.9 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.6 vs their -4.3 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 56 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 16% to 85%
Tendencies room →Chargers51.0%right on their number · −0.7 vs their 51.6%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 51 early downs
Seahawks38.6%inside their normal wobble · −12.0 vs their 50.6%, and they swing ±13.5 week to week (−0.89× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 55%
Tendencies room →Chargers29.3%inside their normal wobble · +3.0 vs their 26.3%, and they swing ±3.4 week to week (+0.88× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Seahawks34.6%inside their normal wobble · +5.1 vs their 29.5%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -72% to 149%
Fourth Down room →Chargers25.0%inside their normal wobble · +12.5 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±14.4 week to week (+0.87× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Seahawks—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 38.3%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 9% to 50%
Tendencies room →Chargers34.6%leaned — sent pressure · +7.2 vs their 27.4%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+1.51× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Seahawks24.4%inside their normal wobble · +3.1 vs their 21.3%, and they swing ±4.3 week to week (+0.73× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 42%
Tendencies room →Chargers30.8%leaned — got home · +12.3 vs their 18.5%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+1.33× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Seahawks24.4%inside their normal wobble · +2.8 vs their 21.6%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
LAC's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 34.6%, 7.2 points above their season mean of 27.4% and 1.5 times their own 4.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · LAC
19/31, 189 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-8.0 expected points added · -3.9% completion over expected
Passing · SEA
13/22, 168 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-5.2 expected points added · +0.3% completion over expected
Receiving · SEA
5/6 for 76 yds, 0 TD
30% of team targets · 3.5 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Emanuel Wilson banked 8.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emanuel WilsonRB · Bell Cow Back | 27.0 | +8.3 | 60% | — | 20% | 0% | 21 car, 81 yd, 1 TD · 3/4, 39 yd, 1 TD |
| Sam DarnoldQB · Starter QB | 13.3 | +3.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 13/22, 168 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 6 yd |
| Omarion HamptonRB | 13.3 | +2.3 | 35% | — | 6% | 1% | 9 car, 45 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 8 yd |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.6 | +2.6 | 88% | — | 30% | 42% | 5/6, 76 yd |
| Rashid ShaheedWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.3 | +5.4 | 60% | — | 15% | 41% | 2 car, 33 yd, 1 TD · 1/3, 20 yd |
| Kimani VidalRB | 11.6 | +3.7 | 35% | — | 10% | 0% | 5 car, 25 yd · 2/3, 11 yd, 1 TD |
| Keaton MitchellRB · Committee Back | 11.3 | −2.1 | 37% | — | 19% | 0% | 10 car, 39 yd · 5/6, 24 yd |
| Justin HerbertQB · Starter QB | 9.6 | −8.0 | 100% | — | 3% | 4% | 19/31, 189 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 6 car, 40 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Tre HarrisWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.0 | +0.7 | 93% | — | 16% | 40% | 0/1, 0 yd · 3/5, 60 yd |
| Oronde Gadsden IITE · Alpha Receiver | 8.8 | −2.1 | 55% | — | 26% | 18% | 1 car, 2 yd · 5/8, 36 yd |
| Tory HortonWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.6 | +3.6 | 17% | — | 5% | 3% | 1/1, 6 yd, 1 TD |
| Quentin JohnstonWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.0 | +0.7 | 75% | — | 6% | 29% | 1 car, -4 yd · 1/2, 44 yd |
| George HolaniRB | 3.0 | −2.4 | 37% | — | 5% | 1% | 7 car, 18 yd · 1/1, 2 yd |
| Cooper KuppWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | −1.1 | 57% | — | 10% | 11% | 1/2, 13 yd |
| AJ BarnerTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | −2.6 | 90% | — | 15% | 11% | 1/3, 12 yd |
| Derius DavisWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 37% | — | 3% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Patrick HerbertTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ladd McConkeyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.0 | 34% | — | 6% | 9% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Eric SaubertTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 30% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Brady RussellRB | 0.0 | — | 22% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(10:13) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to LAC 23, Center-41-C.Stoll. 12-D.Davis MUFFS catch, touched at LAC 25, RECOVERED by SEA-57-C.O'Toole at LAC 23.
Q1 10:13 · Seahawks · 4th & 13 at SEA 32 · gained nothing · +5.51 EP · +16.4% win probability
173 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 187 plays across 27 drives, manual charting on 182. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 85 yards from the LAC 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
187 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
187 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Chargers3
Seahawks0Chargers3Seahawks6Chargers3Seahawks7Chargers3Seahawks13Chargers3Seahawks19Chargers3Seahawks20Chargers6Seahawks20Chargers6Seahawks26Chargers6Seahawks27Chargers12Seahawks27Chargers13Seahawks27Chargers13Seahawks30Chargers19Seahawks30Chargers20Seahawks30Chargers23Seahawks30Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chargers at Seahawks, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 19/31 | 189 | 1 | 2 | 4 | −8.0 |
| Tre Harris | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omarion Hampton | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 1 | +3.4 |
| Justin Herbert | 6 | 40 | 6.7 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Harris | 3 | 5 | 60 | 0 | 16% | +2.4 |
| Quentin Johnston | 1 | 2 | 44 | 0 | 6% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Mack | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Akheem Mesidor | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tuli Tuipulotu |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 13/22 | 168 | 2 | 1 | 3 | −5.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_04_LAC_SEA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Seahawks closed -7 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 53 — over by 10.5.
Conditions and crew
| Keaton Mitchell | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Kimani Vidal | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Quentin Johnston | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 | −1.2 |
| +3.1 |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 5 | 8 | 36 | 0 | 26% | −4.9 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 5 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 19% | +3.7 |
| Kimani Vidal | 2 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 10% | +1.3 |
| Omarion Hampton | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6% | +3.0 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.1 |
| Justin Herbert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Ladd McConkey | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −6.2 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.2 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.5 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Del'Shawn Phillips | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Teair Tart | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Molden | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daiyan Henley | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Dye | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Hart | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Justin Eboigbe | 0 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 21 | 81 | 3.9 | 1 | +0.2 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 2 | 33 | 16.5 | 1 | +3.1 |
| George Holani | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 | −4.0 |
| Sam Darnold | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 | −2.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 5 | 6 | 76 | 0 | 30% | +3.5 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 3 | 4 | 39 | 1 | 20% | −2.9 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 15% | −1.0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 10% | +0.3 |
| AJ Barner | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 15% | −1.0 |
| Tory Horton | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 5% | +1.6 |
| George Holani | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernest Jones | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Devon Witherspoon | 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Emmanwori | 8 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rodney Thomas | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Love | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Drake Thomas | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Uchenna Nwosu | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Jobe | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeMarcus Lawrence | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Morris | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
