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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:40 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4, 2026 · Lincoln Financial Field
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 4
It turned at Q2 11:02, 4th and 24, on Jake Elliott — 13.4 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Los Angeles Rams 24–20. Biggest swing: Q2 11:02, Eagles +13.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 11:02 · 4th and 24
Jake Elliott
Eagles
(11:02) 4-J.Elliott 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann.
13.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Rams won this one — 7 of 16 on third down, against Eagles at 0 of 12 on third down.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Rams won this one — +0.14 expected points per carry, against Eagles at -0.38 expected points per carry.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Rams won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Eagles at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Rams at 2 giveaways.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 11.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
(11:02) 4-J.Elliott 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Kyren Williams's 7-yard rushing touchdown with 1:17 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ramscategory by categoryEagles
Rams ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 76 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Eagles’s 58 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Rams 5, Eagles 4.
Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.29.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
PHI's blitz rate sent, 9.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 1.6 points clear of the next team along.
54 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.9 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 24 pts
Over Expected room →Rams4.9 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.9 vs their 0.1 pts, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 76 snaps
Eagles-6.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their -1.6 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 58 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 30% to 87%
Tendencies room →Rams69.0%inside their normal wobble · +7.0 vs their 62.0%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (+0.74× that swing) · 58 early downs
Eagles47.6%inside their normal wobble · −10.5 vs their 58.1%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 42 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 5% to 45%
Tendencies room →Rams16.7%leaned — dropped back clean · −8.2 vs their 24.8%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−1.05× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
Eagles21.9%leaned — faked the run · +3.7 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±3.5 week to week (+1.05× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16% to 99%
Fourth Down room →Rams33.3%right on their number · −8.3 vs their 41.7%, and they swing ±22.6 week to week (−0.37× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Eagles60.0%no read · no ruler yet — only 3 games of theirs this season
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11% to 74%
Tendencies room →Rams50.0%leaned — sent pressure · +18.6 vs their 31.4%, and they swing ±16.6 week to week (+1.12× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Eagles9.3%leaned — sat back · −16.3 vs their 25.6%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (−1.65× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 32%
Tendencies room →Rams18.8%inside their normal wobble · +6.5 vs their 12.3%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+0.82× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Eagles9.3%right on their number · −0.9 vs their 10.1%, and they swing ±3.7 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
PHI's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 9.3%, 16.3 points below their season mean of 25.6% and 1.7 times their own 9.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Philadelphia Eagles
47 dressed · 8 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 8
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · LA
32/51, 317 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
1.1 expected points added · -2.5% completion over expected
Passing · PHI
12/27, 93 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
-8.2 expected points added · -18.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Puka Nacua banked 6.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren WilliamsRB · Bell Cow Back | 36.7 | +6.1 | 83% | — | 26% | 10% | 16 car, 80 yd, 2 TD · 10/13, 67 yd |
| Puka NacuaWR · Featured Receiver | 27.7 | +6.7 | 90% | — | 24% | 30% | 1 car, 2 yd, 1 TD · 9/12, 125 yd |
| Darius CooperWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.3 | +2.5 | 90% | — | 28% | 48% | 3/7, 33 yd, 2 TD |
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 13.5 | −3.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 12/27, 93 yd, 2 TD · 5 car, 18 yd |
| Tyler HigbeeTE · Rotational Receiver | 11.7 | +2.1 | 65% | — | 12% | 14% | 5/6, 67 yd |
| Matthew StaffordQB · Starter QB | 9.7 | −8.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 32/51, 317 yd, 2 INT · 3 car, 10 yd |
| Davante AdamsWR · Featured Receiver | 7.2 | −8.1 | 95% | — | 18% | 30% | 4/9, 32 yd |
| Makai LemonWR · Featured Receiver | 5.7 | −3.2 | 74% | — | 24% | 15% | 3/6, 27 yd |
| Tank BigsbyRB · Committee Back | 5.5 | −4.5 | 48% | — | 4% | 0% | 14 car, 55 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Dontayvion WicksWR · Featured Receiver | 4.8 | −2.4 | 92% | — | 20% | 23% | 3/5, 18 yd |
| Zach ErtzTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | −2.9 | 21% | — | 16% | 15% | 2/4, 13 yd |
| Blake CorumRB | 3.1 | −2.0 | 15% | — | 4% | 1% | 5 car, 14 yd · 1/2, 7 yd |
| Will ShipleyRB | 2.3 | −2.5 | 48% | — | 4% | 0% | 6 car, 23 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Saquon BarkleyRB | 2.0 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tutu AtwellWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.5 | 23% | — | 2% | 1% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Konata MumpfieldWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −2.8 | 27% | — | 6% | 11% | 1/3, 7 yd |
| Jordan WhittingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −1.2 | 50% | — | 4% | 1% | 1/2, 4 yd |
| Alex BachmanWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Dean ConnorsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Davis AllenTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.7 | 48% | — | 4% | 2% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Johnny MundtTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 80% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Britain CoveyWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| E.J. JenkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 20% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:17) 23-K.Williams left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 1:17 · Rams · 2nd & goal at PHI 7 · gained 7 · +3.08 EP · +16.2% win probability
177 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 187 plays across 27 drives, manual charting on 182. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 98 yards from the LA 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
187 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
187 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Under center, two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, eight in the box.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Rams0
Eagles3How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Rams3Eagles3How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Rams3Eagles6Rams3Eagles12Rams3Eagles13Rams9Eagles13Rams10Eagles13How the play was built
Shotgun, empty backfield, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
Rams10Eagles19Rams10Eagles20Rams16Eagles20Rams17Eagles20How the play was built
Under center, nobody in motion.
Six in the box.
Rams23Eagles20Rams24Eagles20How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Rams at Eagles, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 32/51 | 317 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 16 | 80 | 5.0 | 2 | +3.6 |
| Blake Corum | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Matthew Stafford |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 9 | 12 | 125 | 0 | 24% | +3.7 |
| Kyren Williams | 10 | 13 | 67 | 0 | 26% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Landman | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Young | 4 | 2 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamren Kinchens |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 12/27 | 93 | 2 | 0 | 4 | −8.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_04_LA_PHI
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Rams closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 4.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 44 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
| 3 |
| 10 |
| 3.3 |
| 0 |
| −2.1 |
| Puka Nacua | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 | +0.9 |
| +3.2 |
| Tyler Higbee | 5 | 6 | 67 | 0 | 12% | +5.1 |
| Davante Adams | 4 | 9 | 32 | 0 | 18% | −0.2 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2% | +0.6 |
| Blake Corum | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Konata Mumpfield | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 6% | −6.3 |
| Jordan Whittington | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 4% | −0.9 |
| Davis Allen | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.9 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.5 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Quentin Lake | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Omar Speights | 5 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kam Curl | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyler Davis | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Wallace | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wesley Bailey | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trent McDuffie | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 14 | 55 | 3.9 | 0 | −2.7 |
| Will Shipley | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Jalen Hurts | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 | −4.7 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Cooper | 3 | 7 | 33 | 2 | 28% | −0.8 |
| Makai Lemon | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 24% | +1.6 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 20% | +0.1 |
| Zach Ertz | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 16% | −1.5 |
| Saquon Barkley | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| Tank Bigsby | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.8 |
| Will Shipley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Trotter Jr. | 10 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jihaad Campbell | 9 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Riq Woolen | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cooper DeJean | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Quinyon Mitchell | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Smael Mondon Jr. | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Mukuba | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Michael Carter II | 0 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Jordan Davis | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kelee Ringo | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
