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DYNATYZE
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2026 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4, 2026 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
DolphinsMiami10
BY 5final margin
VikingsMinnesota15
Miami Dolphins 10 at Minnesota Vikings 15. Final.
Vikings -10 no coverU 38.5 ✓
The verdict · 2026 Week 4
Minnesota Vikings 15, Dolphins 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 0:15, 1st and 10, on Ollie Gordon II — 8.6 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
Dome
Vikings closed -10, won by 5 — but didn't cover.
Minnesota Vikings 15–10. Biggest swing: Q3 0:15, Dolphins +8.6% win probability on one snap.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 0:15 · 1st and 10
Ollie Gordon II
Dolphins
(:15) 0-O.Gordon left guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Malik WillisVikingsQ2 5:50(5:50) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete short left to 5-J.Wright. Minnesota challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis sacked at MIA 39 for -9 yards (15-D.Turner). FUMBLES (15-D.Turner), RECOVERED by MIN-51-B.Cashman at 50.
6.4pts
Ollie Gordon IIDolphinsQ3 14:08(14:08) (Shotgun) 0-O.Gordon left tackle pushed ob at MIN 11 for 53 yards (7-B.Murphy; 22-H.Smith).
6.1pts
What separated them
Red zone
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Vikings at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Vikings won this one — 8 of 17 on third down, against Dolphins at 2 of 9 on third down.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Vikings won this one — -0.02 expected points per dropback, against Dolphins at -0.53 expected points per dropback.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — +0.18 expected points per carry, against Vikings at -0.09 expected points per carry.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Drawn from the officially scored play-by-play, which lands usually within two hours of the final, or the next morning when its release runs late.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Dolphins150 of 161 plays carry both curves
(:15) 0-O.Gordon left guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −8.6 for VikingsExpected points −1.81 for VikingsThe model had Dolphins 15 points higher than the market did.play 120
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 0:15MIN +9% win prob(:15) 0-O.Gordon left guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 5:50MIA +6% win prob(5:50) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete short left to 5-J.Wright. Minnesota challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis sacked at MIA 39 for -9 yards (15-D.Turner). FUMBLES (15-D.Turner), RECOVERED by MIN-51-B.Cashman at 50.
3rd · 14:08MIN +6% win prob(14:08) (Shotgun) 0-O.Gordon left tackle pushed ob at MIN 11 for 53 yards (7-B.Murphy; 22-H.Smith).
4th · 10:08MIN +5% win prob(10:08) 33-A.Jones up the middle to MIA 27 for 3 yards (9-J.Uche; 20-J.Brooks).
4th · 4:22MIN +4% win prob(4:22) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 3-J.Addison to MIA 40 for 27 yards (3-C.Johnson; 8-J.Brents).
1st · 14:52MIA +4% win prob(14:52) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at MIN 40 for -8 yards (92-Z.Sieler).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Will Reichard's 47-yard field goal with 7:57 left in the 1st put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:57Will Reichard·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap A.DePaolaLead never changed again+30–3
2nd7:13Will Reichard·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap A.DePaola+30–6
2nd0:04Will Reichard·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap A.DePaola+30–9
3rd11:58Riley Patterson·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap T.Addington+33–9
3rd6:38Will Reichard·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap A.DePaola+33–12
3rd0:15Ollie Gordon II·12-yd TD run12-yard rushing touchdown+710–12
4th6:43Will Reichard·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap A.DePaola+310–15
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Dolphinscategory by categoryVikings
Dolphins3–6Vikings
198Total yards341
5.4Yards per play4.9
35%Success rate39%
22%Third-down rate47%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
3Explosive plays6
7First downs19
2Sacks taken4
1Turnovers0
The read
Vikings ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Dolphins, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.20Dolphins: −0.20 expected points added per play
−0.05Vikings: −0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.53Dolphins: −0.53 expected points added per play
−0.02Vikings: −0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.18Dolphins: +0.18 expected points added per play
−0.09Vikings: −0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 37 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Vikings’s 69 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 2, Vikings 3.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 9 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.6 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.91× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Vikings20.0%
right on their number · −2.8 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 20 dropbacks
NoteMIN's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 23.3%, 7.1 points below their season mean of 30.3% and 1.1 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
O.Gordon left+11% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(14:08) (Shotgun) 0-O.Gordon left tackle pushed ob at MIN 11 for 53 yards (7-B.Murphy; 22-H.Smith).
Q3 14:08 · Dolphins · 3rd & 5 at MIA 36 · gained 53 · +4.68 EP · +11.0% win probability
148 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 161 plays across 19 drives, manual charting on 156. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 74 yards from the MIN 19 for a end of half. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
161 of 161 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
161
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
37%
Yards
534
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 48 to the Dolphins 48
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 10 to the Dolphins 27
Dolphins0Vikings3
Field goal8 plays, from the Dolphins 38 to the Dolphins 25
Punt12 plays, from the Dolphins 18 to the Vikings 48
The period ended6 plays, from the Vikings 21 to the Vikings 31
2nd quarter49 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 26 to the Dolphins 32
Dolphins0Vikings6
Field goal13 plays, from the Vikings 18 to the Dolphins 32
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Dolphins 28 to the Dolphins 48
Punt4 plays, from midfield to the Dolphins 48
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 28 to the Dolphins 31
Dolphins0Vikings9
Field goal13 plays, from the Vikings 24 to the Dolphins 15
3rd quarter38 plays
How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Six in the box.
Dolphins3Vikings9
Field goal8 plays, from the Dolphins 31 to the Vikings 9
Dolphins3Vikings12
Field goal13 plays, from the Vikings 35 to the Dolphins 22
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 33 to the Dolphins 41
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 26 to the Vikings 35
Dolphins9Vikings12
Dolphins10Vikings12
Touchdown5 plays, from the Dolphins 45 to the Vikings 12
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter37 plays
Dolphins10Vikings15
Field goal14 plays, from the Vikings 37 to the Dolphins 11
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 18 to the Dolphins 20
The period ended17 plays, from the Vikings 19 to the Dolphins 2
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
