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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:40 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4, 2026 · Highmark Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 4
It turned at Q4 1:14, 2nd and 6, on Craig Woodson — 28.0 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New England Patriots 29–26 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:14, Patriots +28.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:14 · 2nd and 6
Craig Woodson
Patriots
(1:14) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left intended for 5-J.Palmer INTERCEPTED by 4-C.Woodson at NE 19. 4-C.Woodson to NE 19 for no gain (5-J.Palmer).
28.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Patriots won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bills at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Patriots won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Bills at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bills owned this one and still lost it — +0.15 expected points per carry, against Patriots at -0.07 expected points per carry.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.37 expected points per dropback, against Bills at +0.07 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 12.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
(1:14) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left intended for 5-J.Palmer INTERCEPTED by 4-C.Woodson at NE 19. 4-C.Woodson to NE 19 for no gain (5-J.Palmer).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Efton Chism III's 23-yard touchdown catch with 1:55 left in the 4th put New England Patriots ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Efton Chism III23-yd TD catch23-yard touchdown catchfrom Drake Maye · two-point goodLead never changed again+829–269 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categoryBills
Patriots ahead 4–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — first downs.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.37 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 72 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Bills’s 55 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 4, Bills 5.
Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs 0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
BUF's early-down pass rate turned over: 41.7% in week 3 against 61.0% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
NE's pass rate over expected turned over: −7.6 pts in week 3 against +3.9 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
71 snaps this game, floor 20 — 7 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.8 points. · +0.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots3.9 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.8 vs their 0.1 pts, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+0.79× that swing) · 71 snaps
Bills-2.9 ptsright on their number · −0.8 vs their -2.1 pts, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 54 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 30% to 74%
Tendencies room →Patriots55.2%right on their number · +0.3 vs their 54.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.04× that swing) · 58 early downs
Bills61.0%leaned — passed early · +8.6 vs their 52.4%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+1.00× that swing) · 41 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 48%
Tendencies room →Patriots32.6%leaned — faked the run · +12.4 vs their 20.2%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+1.44× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Bills22.2%inside their normal wobble · −5.5 vs their 27.7%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 7% to 60%
Fourth Down room →Patriots50.0%no read · no ruler yet — only 3 games of theirs this season
Bills25.0%no read · no ruler yet — only 1 game of theirs this season
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 8% to 71%
Tendencies room →Patriots25.0%leaned — sat back · −14.4 vs their 39.4%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (−1.16× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Bills37.2%right on their number · +2.2 vs their 35.0%, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (+0.48× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 32%
Tendencies room →Patriots11.1%leaned — stayed blocked · −5.8 vs their 16.9%, and they swing ±3.6 week to week (−1.60× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Bills14.0%right on their number · −2.9 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
NE's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 11.1%, 5.8 points below their season mean of 16.9% and 1.6 times their own 3.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · NE
22/37, 269 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
11.0 expected points added · +1.1% completion over expected
Passing · BUF
23/33, 253 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
4.8 expected points added · +10.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Keon Coleman banked 8.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake MayeQB · Starter QB | 26.2 | +1.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/37, 269 yd, 3 TD, 1 INT · 8 car, 54 yd |
| Romeo DoubsWR · Alpha Receiver | 23.8 | +6.0 | 64% | — | 25% | 33% | 6/9, 58 yd, 2 TD |
| Keon ColemanWR · Featured Receiver | 23.6 | +8.2 | 78% | — | 23% | 34% | 6/7, 116 yd, 1 TD |
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 18.5 | −1.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/33, 253 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 5 car, 4 yd, 1 TD |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Committee Back | 18.4 | +2.8 | 66% | — | 14% | 0% | 13 car, 47 yd, 1 TD · 3/5, 27 yd |
| James CookRB · Bell Cow Back | 16.3 | +6.2 | 59% | — | 7% | 0% | 12 car, 75 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 8 yd |
| Khalil ShakirWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.2 | +1.3 | 76% | — | 27% | 11% | 7/8, 82 yd |
| Efton Chism IIIWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.2 | +5.2 | 45% | — | 11% | 13% | 2/4, 42 yd, 1 TD |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 11.2 | +2.7 | 64% | — | 14% | 10% | 5/5, 62 yd |
| Mack HollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.3 | +0.9 | 41% | — | 11% | 29% | 3/4, 53 yd |
| TreVeyon HendersonRB · Committee Back | 4.2 | −5.2 | 37% | — | 6% | 0% | 14 car, 42 yd · 0/2, 0 yd |
| DeMario DouglasWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | −2.5 | 46% | — | 8% | 9% | 2/3, 15 yd |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | +0.3 | 61% | — | 7% | 1% | 2/2, 13 yd |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 3.2 | −0.5 | 32% | — | 7% | 0% | 1 car, 3 yd · 2/2, 9 yd |
| DJ MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | −1.2 | 39% | — | 7% | 7% | 1 car, 6 yd · 1/2, 11 yd |
| Eli RaridonTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | −3.6 | 58% | — | 6% | 4% | 1/2, 12 yd |
| Dalton KincaidTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −1.6 | 59% | — | 7% | 8% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Ray DavisRB | 1.7 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Josh PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −7.4 | 59% | — | 13% | 42% | 1/4, 3 yd |
| Keleki LatuTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Greg DortchWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Corey KinerRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Cameron LatuTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kyle WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.0 | 25% | — | 6% | 5% | 0/2, 0 yd |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:14) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left intended for 5-J.Palmer INTERCEPTED by 4-C.Woodson at NE 19. 4-C.Woodson to NE 19 for no gain (5-J.Palmer).
Q4 1:14 · Bills · 2nd & 6 at BUF 40 · gained nothing · -1.73 EP · −27.0% win probability
162 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 172 plays across 23 drives, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 97 yards from the NE 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Patriots6
Bills0Patriots7Bills0Patriots7Bills6Patriots7Bills7How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, seven in the box.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Patriots13Bills7Patriots14Bills7Patriots14Bills13Patriots14Bills14How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
Patriots14Bills17Patriots20Bills17Patriots21Bills17How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Patriots21Bills20How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, six in the box.
Thrown on the second read.
How the play was built
Shotgun, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, seven in the box.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
Patriots21Bills26How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, six in the box.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
Patriots27Bills26How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
Patriots29Bills26How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, it should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Bills, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 22/37 | 269 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +11.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 8 | 54 | 6.8 | 0 | +4.8 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 13 | 47 | 3.6 | 1 | −0.2 |
| TreVeyon Henderson |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 5 | 5 | 62 | 0 | 14% | +4.2 |
| Romeo Doubs | 6 | 9 | 58 | 2 | 25% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Spillane | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Elliss | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Jones |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 23/33 | 253 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +4.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_04_NE_BUF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 55 — over by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 14 |
| 42 |
| 3.0 |
| 0 |
| −1.9 |
| +5.7 |
| Mack Hollins | 3 | 4 | 53 | 0 | 11% | +4.0 |
| Efton Chism III | 2 | 4 | 42 | 1 | 11% | +4.3 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 14% | −0.0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 8% | +0.1 |
| Eli Raridon | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 6% | +0.7 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.1 |
| Kyle Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.3 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Carlton Davis III | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Muasau | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Ponder | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Erick Hunter | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Craig Woodson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Cory Durden | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charles Woods | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Cook | 12 | 75 | 6.3 | 1 | +3.7 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Josh Allen | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 1 | −0.1 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Ray Davis | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keon Coleman | 6 | 7 | 116 | 1 | 23% | +8.9 |
| Khalil Shakir | 7 | 8 | 82 | 0 | 27% | +0.5 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 7% | +0.6 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 7% | +1.4 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 7% | +1.9 |
| James Cook | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 7% | −0.5 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7% | −1.4 |
| Ray Davis | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 13% | −5.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrel Bernard | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Bishop | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dorian Williams | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| TJ Parker | 2 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Davison Igbinosun | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Greg Rousseau | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| DeWayne Carter | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bradley Chubb | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Gardner-Johnson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maxwell Hairston | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
