New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills — 2026 Week 4 | Box Score, Drive Chart & Win Probability

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New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills — 2026 Week 4 | Box Score, Drive Chart & Win Probability | Dynatyze

the 2025 regular season · the rooms, read for these two clubs

Two identities, on the league scale

Last season, labelled as last season

There is no 2026 play-by-play at all yet — the plays are about 20 minutes after each final, with the 5:00 AM ET nightly sync behind it and the Monday 4:00 AM ET weekly sync as the audited pass, and no game has been played. So every rate below is drawn from the 2025 regular season, labelled that way on purpose rather than dressed up as a forecast for this one.

Pass rate over expected

The Over Expected Room →

How far a play-caller ran from the pass rate the situation asked for, in percentage points. A team above zero passes more than the down, distance and score script called for; a team below it runs more. A scramble counts as a pass, because the model's idea of a pass is the dropback.

Patriots

+2.4

4 of 32 · 1,014 plays

most run-heavymost pass-heavy

league mean -2.3 · 32 ranked

Bills

-3.5

19 of 32 · 1,056 plays

Fourth downs, went for it

The Fourth Down Room →

Share of fourth downs on which the offence ran a play instead of kicking. The denominator is every fourth down with a decision on it — go, field goal or punt.

Patriots

24.5%

14 of 32 · 102 fourth downs

most conservativemost aggressive

league mean 23.3% · 32 ranked

Blitz sent on defence

The Tendency Room →

Share of charted dropbacks this defence sent an extra rusher on. Charting is a separate feed from the play-by-play and it begins in 2022, so an older basis season has no blitz number at all.

Patriots

27.4%

19 of 32 · 591 charted dropbacks

least blitz sentmost blitz sent

league mean 29.4% · 32 ranked

Drives that scored

The Drive Room →

Share of this offence's possessions that ended in a touchdown or a field goal.

Patriots

46.0%

5 of 32 · 174 possessions

fewest drives scoredmost drives scored

league mean 39.6% · 32 ranked

Bills

44.8%

Drives allowed to score

The Drive Room →

Share of opponent possessions this defence let end in points. Lower is better, and the rank reads that way — rank 1 is the stingiest defence in the league. Every possession in football is one team's drive and another team's stop, so POOLED over the league these are the same drives counted twice. The figure printed here is the unweighted mean of the qualifying clubs' rates, which is a different average: a club that faces more drives than it runs pulls the two apart, by a few hundredths over a full season and by a few tenths early in one.

Patriots

32.0%

4 of 32 · 172 possessions defended

2025 regular season, weeks 1 through 18

The usage each side was carrying

Patriots

Player	G	Snap	Tgt	Car	RZ	PPR
QBDrake Maye	17	95.8%	0.1%	21.2%	22	20.7
TEHunter Henry	17	79.4%	17.4%	0.0%	22	10.5
WRMack Hollins	14	68.4%	16.2%	0.2%	5	8.1
WRKayshon Boutte	14	67.5%	12.0%	0.0%	4	8.9
RBRhamondre Stevenson	14	59.4%	9.8%	32.0%	33	12.8
WRStefon Diggs	17	53.8%	21.9%	0.0%	12	12.4
TEAustin Hooper	13	51.8%	7.1%	0.0%	5	4.6
RBTreVeyon Henderson	17	45.9%	8.4%	36.5%	40	12.1

Bills

Player	G	Snap	Tgt	Car	RZ	PPR
QBJosh Allen	16	97.9%	0.0%	22.8%	33	22.8
WRKeon Coleman	12	66.0%	16.7%	0.0%	12	8.5
TEDawson Knox

Note

Shares are the mean of a player's weekly share, over the games he cleared eight snaps in — not a season total divided by a season, which would let one enormous week stand in for a role. Weeks 19 through 22 are excluded by hand: the usage table spells every row's season type REG, playoffs included, so the week bound is what keeps the postseason out.

Scores & Schedule.

The game.

Scores & Schedule.

The game.

What the market is saying

Where these two disagree

Third downs converted

Staying on schedule

Two identities, on the league scale

Pass rate over expected

Fourth downs, went for it

Blitz sent on defence

Drives that scored

Drives allowed to score

Who is expected on the field

Patriots

Bills

The usage each side was carrying

Patriots

Bills

The last 6 meetings

Take it with you

Game environment

Expected points a play

Explosive plays, 20 yards or more

Sacks on the dropback

Staying on schedule

Expected points a play

Third downs converted

Explosive plays, 20 yards or more

Sacks on the dropback