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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:10 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 4 · Soldier Field
ScheduledThe market read · numbers on file today, not the close
The market read · numbers on file today, not the close
Bears are laid −8.5, and the book has the two of them scoring 45.5 points between them.
Spread
CHI −8.5
the number, from the home side
Total
45.5
points, both clubs
2025 regular season · share of snaps
NYJ implied
18.5
spread and total, solved
CHI implied
27.0
spread and total, solved
No-vig two-way, normalised in probability space rather than by averaging prices — the two American numbers are converted to implied probability and divided by their sum. The implied team totals above are arithmetic on the spread and the total, not a projection of anybody's score.
Note
the 2025 regular season · offence against defence, ranked in both directions
The widest disagreement on this board is the quarterback staying upright, with the Bears holding the ball. The Bears offence ranked 3 of 32 among offences at keeping the quarterback off the ground; the Jets defence ranked 30 of 32 among defences at getting him on it. That is 87 percentile points, a mismatch, and it runs the Bears’ way.
The single summary of whether a snap helped: how much a play changed its team's expected points, averaged over every run and pass. An offence wants it high, so the defence facing it wants the number it gives up low. Sacks are in the denominator, because a sack is a play that happened.
Jets offence
−0.127
29 of 32 · 1,009 plays
When the Bears have the ball
Caleb Williamsagainst
the Jets
projected starter · chart of Tue, Sep 8, 2026
The only line on this board whose two sides are different verbs: the offence's number is sacks taken and it wants it low, the defence's is sacks made and it wants it high. The denominator is dropbacks, not pass attempts, because a sack is a failed dropback and dividing by completed attempts would flatter the worst protections in football.
Note
the 2025 regular season · the rooms, read for these two clubs
Last season, labelled as last season
There is no 2026 play-by-play at all yet — the plays are about 20 minutes after each final, with the 5:00 AM ET nightly sync behind it and the Monday 4:00 AM ET weekly sync as the audited pass, and no game has been played. So every rate below is drawn from the 2025 regular season, labelled that way on purpose rather than dressed up as a forecast for this one.
How far a play-caller ran from the pass rate the situation asked for, in percentage points. A team above zero passes more than the down, distance and score script called for; a team below it runs more. A scramble counts as a pass, because the model's idea of a pass is the dropback.
Jets
-8.8
31 of 32 · 1,001 plays
Bears
-3.9
22 of 32 · 1,090 plays
Share of fourth downs on which the offence ran a play instead of kicking. The denominator is every fourth down with a decision on it — go, field goal or punt.
Jets
29.5%
5 of 32 · 139 fourth downs
Share of charted dropbacks this defence sent an extra rusher on. Charting is a separate feed from the play-by-play and it begins in 2022, so an older basis season has no blitz number at all.
Jets
29.4%
15 of 32 · 579 charted dropbacks
Share of this offence's possessions that ended in a touchdown or a field goal.
Jets
29.8%
29 of 32 · 181 possessions
Bears
43.7%
Share of opponent possessions this defence let end in points. Lower is better, and the rank reads that way — rank 1 is the stingiest defence in the league. Every possession in football is one team's drive and another team's stop, so POOLED over the league these are the same drives counted twice. The figure printed here is the unweighted mean of the qualifying clubs' rates, which is a different average: a club that faces more drives than it runs pulls the two apart, by a few hundredths over a full season and by a few tenths early in one.
Jets
48.9%
30 of 32 · 186 possessions defended
Projected starters · 2026 depth charts
Offence
Defence
Special teams
Offence
Defence
Note
2025 regular season, weeks 1 through 18
| Player | G | Snap | Tgt | Car | RZ | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QBBrady Cook | 5 | 98.0% | 0.0% | 10.0% | — | 5.7 |
| QBJustin Fields | 9 | 89.8% | 0.4% | 27.1% | 14 | 15.9 |
| WRGarrett Wilson | 7 | 87.0% | 35.4% | 0.0% | 5 | 14.2 |
| WRJosh Reynolds | 5 | 84.2% | 15.7% | 0.0% | 2 | 4.6 |
| TEMason Taylor | 13 | 81.1% | 17.2% | 0.0% | 9 | 6.8 |
| QBTyrod Taylor | 5 | 78.4% | 0.0% | 22.4% | 3 | 12.2 |
| WRAdonai Mitchell | 8 | 76.1% | 24.2% | 0.4% | 8 | 8.2 |
| WRJohn Metchie III | 9 | 76.1% | 17.2% | 1.1% | 5 | 7.3 |
| Player | G | Snap | Tgt | Car | RZ | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QBCaleb Williams | 17 | 99.1% | 0.3% | 15.8% | 21 | 18.7 |
| WRRome Odunze | 12 | 88.1% | 23.6% | 0.0% | 13 | 12.2 |
| WRDJ Moore |
Note
Head to head · every meeting on record
Finals only, both home orderings folded together, newest first. Kickoff for this one is Sun, Oct 4, 2026.
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
The market number, who both clubs have been, and the one question this matchup asks.
/football/games/2026_04_NYJ_CHI
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Conditions and crew
Bears defence
+0.018
19 of 32 · 1,022 plays
Week to week Jets's offence held its middle half of weeks between −0.295 and +0.009 over 17 weeks — 1.3 times the league's whole season spread, about as wide as the league itself. Bears's defence held its own between −0.177 and +0.215 — 1.7 times the league's whole season spread, wider than the league itself.
Jets offence
34.9%
27 of 32 · 229 third downs
Bears defence
40.8%
19 of 32 · 191 third downs
Jets offence
9.8%
30 of 32 · 613 dropbacks
Bears defence
5.9%
22 of 32 · 597 dropbacks
Jets offence
41.6%
25 of 32 · 731 early downs
Bears defence
47.8%
28 of 32 · 803 early downs
Jets offence
3.9%
31 of 32 · 1,009 plays
Bears defence
7.2%
31 of 32 · 1,022 plays
Bears offence
3.7%
3 of 32 · 644 dropbacks
Jets defence
4.5%
30 of 32 · 579 dropbacks
Week to week Bears's offence held its middle half of weeks between 2.4% and 5.0% over 17 weeks — 0.6 times the league's whole season spread, tighter than the league itself — a habit rather than an average of different afternoons. Jets's defence held its own between 2.8% and 5.6% — 0.6 times the league's whole season spread, tighter than the league itself — a habit rather than an average of different afternoons.
Bears offence
+0.079
8 of 32 · 1,096 plays
Jets defence
+0.147
31 of 32 · 1,053 plays
Bears offence
6.5%
7 of 32 · 1,096 plays
Jets defence
6.8%
28 of 32 · 1,053 plays
Bears offence
45.6%
11 of 32 · 833 early downs
Jets defence
46.2%
23 of 32 · 821 early downs
Bears offence
42.5%
11 of 32 · 228 third downs
Jets defence
38.9%
12 of 32 · 208 third downs
Bears
23.0%
19 of 32 · 126 fourth downs
Bears
29.5%
14 of 32 · 597 charted dropbacks
9 of 32 · 183 possessions
Bears
39.2%
15 of 32 · 181 possessions defended
Special teams
| 17 |
| 84.8% |
| 16.1% |
| 3.0% |
| 13 |
| 10.1 |
| TECole Kmet | 16 | 71.4% | 9.6% | 0.0% | 7 | 4.9 |
| TEColston Loveland | 15 | 68.1% | 17.0% | 0.2% | 16 | 10.7 |
| WROlamide Zaccheaus | 14 | 59.6% | 14.7% | 1.0% | 13 | 6.1 |
| RBD'Andre Swift | 16 | 57.9% | 9.4% | 48.0% | 41 | 14.3 |
| RBKyle Monangai | 17 | 40.9% | 5.7% | 32.1% | 41 | 8.6 |
