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connecting · reading the slate
Game Center
2026 Week 4 · Thu, Oct 1, 2026 · Huntington Bank Field
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 4
It turned at Q4 0:15, 4th and 8, on Andre Szmyt — 21.2 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Cleveland Browns 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:15, Browns +21.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:15 · 4th and 8
Andre Szmyt
Browns
(:15) 25-A.Szmyt 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
21.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — +0.11 expected points per carry, against Browns at -0.23 expected points per carry.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Browns won this one — +0.30 expected points per dropback, against Steelers at +0.05 expected points per dropback.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Browns at 5 chunk plays.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Browns won this one — 4 of 10 on third down, against Steelers at 4 of 13 on third down.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
(:15) 25-A.Szmyt 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Andre Szmyt's 56-yard field goal with 0:15 left in the 4th put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Darnell Washington21-yd TD catch21-yard touchdown catchfrom Aaron Rodgers · two-point no good+616–21
Andre Szmyt56-yd field goal56-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.SunaharaLead never changed again+324–279 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Steelerscategory by categoryBrowns
Browns ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 66 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Browns’s 60 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 4, Browns 3.
Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs 0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
PIT's early-down pass rate turned over: 61.4% in week 3 against 66.7% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 2.1 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Steelers0.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · −3.5 vs their 4.3 pts, and they swing ±4.4 week to week (−0.80× that swing) · 64 snaps
Browns4.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.2 vs their -0.4 pts, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+0.89× that swing) · 60 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 47% to 70%
Tendencies room →Steelers66.7%leaned — passed early · +3.5 vs their 63.2%, and they swing ±2.1 week to week (+1.61× that swing) · 51 early downs
Browns56.0%right on their number · −1.9 vs their 57.9%, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 0% to 34%
Tendencies room →Steelers13.0%inside their normal wobble · −4.1 vs their 17.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Browns13.5%inside their normal wobble · −5.5 vs their 19.0%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−0.95× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 7% to 62%
Fourth Down room →Steelers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 35.4%.
Browns—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 55%
Tendencies room →Steelers32.4%inside their normal wobble · +6.1 vs their 26.3%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (+0.54× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Browns34.8%leaned — sent pressure · +11.7 vs their 23.1%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+1.50× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 32%
Tendencies room →Steelers13.5%right on their number · −2.1 vs their 15.7%, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (−0.40× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Browns21.7%inside their normal wobble · +3.5 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
PIT's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 3.5 points above their season mean of 63.2% and 1.6 times their own 2.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · PIT
22/40, 299 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
2.4 expected points added · -6.4% completion over expected
Passing · CLE
24/33, 268 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
9.2 expected points added · +3.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jaleel McLaughlin banked 8.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 22.0 | +3.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/40, 299 yd, 3 TD, 2 INT |
| Quinshon JudkinsRB · Bell Cow Back | 21.6 | −2.9 | 66% | — | 21% | 0% | 17 car, 53 yd, 1 TD · 6/7, 43 yd |
| DK MetcalfWR · Featured Receiver | 16.5 | +3.5 | 97% | — | 23% | 38% | 5/9, 115 yd |
| Roman WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 16.4 | +6.9 | 31% | — | 15% | 29% | 3/6, 74 yd, 1 TD |
| Jaylen WarrenRB · Bell Cow Back | 15.6 | −1.1 | 97% | — | 15% | 1% | 17 car, 93 yd · 3/6, 33 yd |
| Deshaun WatsonQB · Starter QB | 12.9 | −3.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/33, 268 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 7 car, 22 yd |
| Denzel BostonWR · Featured Receiver | 12.9 | +1.0 | 95% | — | 21% | 63% | 4/7, 89 yd |
| Harold Fannin Jr.TE · Rotational Receiver | 11.7 | +2.2 | 89% | — | 15% | 12% | 3/5, 27 yd, 1 TD |
| Darnell WashingtonTE · Rotational Receiver | 11.7 | +1.5 | 71% | — | 13% | 10% | 3/5, 27 yd, 1 TD |
| KC ConcepcionWR · Featured Receiver | 11.4 | −0.5 | 92% | — | 24% | 25% | 5/8, 64 yd |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.7 | +2.0 | 75% | — | 13% | 9% | 3/5, 17 yd, 1 TD |
| Jaleel McLaughlinRB | 8.8 | +8.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.6 | +1.9 | 38% | — | 9% | 9% | 3/3, 36 yd |
| Raheim SandersRB | 3.6 | −0.1 | 34% | — | 6% | 0% | 2 car, 9 yd · 2/2, 7 yd |
| Michael PittmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | −2.3 | 72% | — | 10% | 10% | 2/4, 15 yd |
| Germie BernardWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | +0.4 | 40% | — | 5% | 2% | 2/2, 11 yd |
| Ben SkowronekWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −1.4 | 11% | — | 5% | 1% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Isaiah BondWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | +0.4 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Blake WhiteheartTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 34% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Malachi CorleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 22% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Kaden WetjenWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Lew Nichols IIIRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Travis HomerRB | -0.1 | −1.1 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:15) 25-A.Szmyt 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Q4 0:15 · Browns · 4th & 8 at PIT 38 · gained nothing · +1.66 EP · +21.8% win probability
172 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 186 plays across 25 drives, manual charting on 181. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 80 yards from the PIT 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Shotgun, empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, five in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Steelers6
Browns0Steelers7Browns0How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Six in the box.
Steelers7Browns6Steelers7Browns7How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, seven in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Steelers7Browns13Steelers7Browns14Steelers7Browns20Steelers7Browns21Steelers10Browns21Steelers16Browns21Steelers16Browns24Steelers22Browns24How the play was built
Under center, a quarterback sneak, nobody in motion.
Six in the box.
Steelers24Browns24Steelers24Browns27Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Steelers at Browns, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 22/40 | 299 | 3 | 2 | 5 | +2.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 17 | 93 | 5.5 | 0 | +1.7 |
| Travis Homer | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 5 | 9 | 115 | 0 | 23% | +5.6 |
| Roman Wilson | 3 | 6 | 74 | 1 | 15% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payton Wilson | 7 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaquan Brisker | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Spears-Jennings |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 24/33 | 268 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +9.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_04_PIT_CLE
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Steelers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 38.5; the game landed 51 — over by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| +5.5 |
| Jaylen Warren | 3 | 6 | 33 | 0 | 15% | −0.2 |
| Darnell Washington | 3 | 5 | 27 | 1 | 13% | +0.4 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 5 | 17 | 1 | 13% | +0.4 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 10% | −0.3 |
| Germie Bernard | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 5% | +0.4 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 5% | −0.2 |
| 6 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| Cameron Heyward | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Queen | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yahya Black | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Watt | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Asante Samuel Jr. | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Keeanu Benton | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Holcomb | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 17 | 53 | 3.1 | 1 | −2.1 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 1 | 28 | 28.0 | 1 | +2.9 |
| Deshaun Watson | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 | −3.8 |
| Raheim Sanders | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denzel Boston | 4 | 7 | 89 | 0 | 21% | +1.5 |
| KC Concepcion | 5 | 8 | 64 | 0 | 24% | +2.5 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 6 | 7 | 43 | 0 | 21% | +2.8 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 9% | +2.1 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 3 | 5 | 27 | 1 | 15% | +3.3 |
| Raheim Sanders | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 6% | −0.1 |
| Isaiah Bond | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | −0.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Schwesinger | 2 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyson Campbell | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Grant Delpit | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Ronnie Hickman Jr. | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Adin Huntington | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Emmanuel McNeil-Warren | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Quincy Williams | 0 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Denzel Ward | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Myles Harden | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maliek Collins | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
