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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:42 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4, 2026 · M&T Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 4
It turned at Q1 14:18, 1st and 10, on Trenton Simpson — 12.9 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Baltimore Ravens 24–18. Biggest swing: Q1 14:18, Ravens +12.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:18 · 1st and 10
Trenton Simpson
Ravens
(14:18) 1-C.Ward pass short middle intended for 20-T.Pollard INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Simpson [15-M.Green] at BAL 39. 32-T.Simpson pushed ob at TEN 37 for 24 yards (51-A.Schlottmann).
12.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Ravens won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Titans at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Ravens won this one — no giveaways, against Titans at 2 giveaways.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.39 expected points per dropback, against Titans at -0.11 expected points per dropback.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.17 expected points per snap, against Titans at -0.14 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
(14:18) 1-C.Ward pass short middle intended for 20-T.Pollard INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Simpson [15-M.Green] at BAL 39. 32-T.Simpson pushed ob at TEN 37 for 24 yards (51-A.Schlottmann).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Zay Flowers's 19-yard touchdown catch with 12:22 left in the 2nd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Zay Flowers19-yd TD catch19-yard touchdown catchfrom Lamar JacksonLead never changed again+77–147 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Titanscategory by categoryRavens
Ravens ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 59 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Ravens’s 59 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Titans 4, Ravens 3.
Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BAL's blitz rate sent turned over: 45.7% in week 3 against 10.8% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.2 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
BAL's play-action rate turned over: 36.4% in week 3 against 18.2% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
BAL's pass rate over expected turned over: −20.4 pts in week 3 against +0.3 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points. · +0.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Titans-3.9 ptsright on their number · +2.3 vs their -6.2 pts, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 58 snaps
Ravens0.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.1 vs their -4.8 pts, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.60× that swing) · 59 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 87%
Tendencies room →Titans58.7%right on their number · +2.2 vs their 56.5%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 46 early downs
Ravens54.2%right on their number · +4.3 vs their 49.9%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (+0.41× that swing) · 48 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 50%
Tendencies room →Titans16.2%inside their normal wobble · −7.1 vs their 23.4%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.94× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Ravens18.2%leaned — dropped back clean · −10.3 vs their 28.5%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−1.25× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31% to 78%
Fourth Down room →Titans33.3%leaned — went for it · +18.8 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±17.2 week to week (+1.09× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Ravens33.3%right on their number · +3.3 vs their 30.0%, and they swing ±18.3 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 62%
Tendencies room →Titans24.2%right on their number · +1.2 vs their 23.0%, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Ravens10.8%leaned — sat back · −19.7 vs their 30.5%, and they swing ±12.2 week to week (−1.61× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 34%
Tendencies room →Titans12.1%right on their number · −1.5 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Ravens16.2%right on their number · −1.7 vs their 17.9%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.27× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
BAL's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 10.8%, 19.7 points below their season mean of 30.5% and 1.6 times their own 12.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 4
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · BAL
15/20, 222 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
11.8 expected points added · +11.3% completion over expected
Passing · TEN
Cam WardQB
20/31, 222 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
0.4 expected points added · +6.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Zay Flowers banked 9.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay FlowersWR · Alpha Receiver | 25.8 | +9.4 | 73% | — | 34% | 38% | 8/10, 118 yd, 1 TD |
| Carnell TateWR · Alpha Receiver | 21.5 | +4.1 | 84% | — | 43% | 73% | 9/12, 145 yd |
| Lamar JacksonQB · Starter QB | 18.9 | +6.5 | 52% | — | 0% | — | 15/20, 222 yd, 2 TD · 2 car, 20 yd |
| Derrick HenryRB · Bell Cow Back | 15.9 | −3.3 | 62% | — | 7% | 0% | 23 car, 73 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 6 yd |
| Cam WardQB · Starter QB | 15.6 | +2.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/31, 222 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 27 yd |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Featured Receiver | 13.7 | +0.1 | 58% | — | 21% | 20% | 5/6, 27 yd, 1 TD |
| Tony PollardRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.0 | −6.0 | 53% | — | 14% | 0% | 16 car, 48 yd, 1 TD · 2/4, 2 yd |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.0 | +2.8 | 67% | — | 18% | 17% | 1 car, 1 yd · 3/5, 19 yd, 1 TD |
| Rashod BatemanWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.6 | +2.9 | 47% | — | 7% | 13% | 2/2, 46 yd |
| Matthew HibnerTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | +1.8 | 58% | — | 7% | 9% | 2/2, 34 yd |
| Justice HillRB · Receiving Back | 4.5 | 0.0 | 38% | — | 10% | 0% | 1 car, 3 yd · 2/3, 22 yd |
| Tyler HuntleyQB · Starter QB | 4.1 | +0.6 | 48% | — | 0% | — | 8/9, 63 yd · 4 car, 16 yd |
| Gunnar HelmTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +1.6 | 72% | — | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Elic AyomanorWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | +1.2 | 62% | — | 4% | 9% | 1/1, 22 yd |
| Devontez WalkerWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −0.7 | 69% | — | 7% | 18% | 1/2, 19 yd |
| Chimere DikeWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | +1.2 | 12% | — | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 15 yd |
| Elijah SarrattWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | −0.8 | 36% | — | 7% | 10% | 1/2, 13 yd |
| Calvin RidleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | −0.4 | 47% | — | 7% | 5% | 1/2, 13 yd |
| Tyjae SpearsRB | 1.6 | −0.3 | 36% | — | 4% | 0% | 2 car, 7 yd · 1/1, -1 yd |
| Daniel BellingerTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −0.2 | 52% | — | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Nicholas SingletonRB | 0.2 | −1.3 | 12% | — | 0% | — | 3 car, 2 yd |
| Josh CuevasTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 28% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Durham SmytheTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 28% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| LaJohntay WesterWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Julius ChestnutRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(14:18) 1-C.Ward pass short middle intended for 20-T.Pollard INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Simpson [15-M.Green] at BAL 39. 32-T.Simpson pushed ob at TEN 37 for 24 yards (51-A.Schlottmann).
Q1 14:18 · Titans · 1st & 10 at BAL 43 · gained nothing · -6.71 EP · −17.9% win probability
159 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 175 plays across 23 drives, manual charting on 170. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 98 yards from the BAL 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Under center, two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, seven in the box.
Thrown as a checkdown, dropped.
Titans0
Ravens6Titans0Ravens7Titans6Ravens7Titans7Ravens7Titans7Ravens13Titans7Ravens14Titans7Ravens20Titans7Ravens21Titans7Ravens24Titans10Ravens24Titans16Ravens24Titans18Ravens24Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Titans at Ravens, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 20/31 | 222 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +0.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 16 | 48 | 3.0 | 1 | −2.0 |
| Cam Ward | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Tyjae Spears |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carnell Tate | 9 | 12 | 145 | 0 | 43% | +6.7 |
| Elic Ayomanor | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 4% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Barton | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Hill Jr. | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Winston Jr. |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 15/20 | 222 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +11.8 |
| Tyler Huntley | 8/9 | 63 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_04_TEN_BAL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -11.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 42 — under by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
| 2 |
| 7 |
| 3.5 |
| 0 |
| −0.2 |
| Nicholas Singleton | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| +1.9 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 3 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 18% | −0.1 |
| Chimere Dike | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 4% | +1.0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 7% | +0.3 |
| Gunnar Helm | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | +0.7 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14% | −8.4 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Tyjae Spears | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 4% | −1.3 |
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Amani Hooker | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alontae Taylor | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cedric Gray | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Harris | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeffery Simmons | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jermaine Johnson II | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Franklin-Myers | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| +0.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 23 | 73 | 3.2 | 1 | −3.3 |
| Lamar Jackson | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Tyler Huntley | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 8 | 10 | 118 | 1 | 34% | +4.3 |
| Rashod Bateman | 2 | 2 | 46 | 0 | 7% | +4.1 |
| Matthew Hibner | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 7% | +2.5 |
| Mark Andrews | 5 | 6 | 27 | 1 | 21% | +1.8 |
| Justice Hill | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 10% | +0.4 |
| Devontez Walker | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 7% | +1.7 |
| Elijah Sarratt | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 7% | +0.3 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trenton Simpson | 2 | 7 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kyle Hamilton | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Malaki Starks | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chidobe Awuzie | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Roquan Smith | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chandler Rivers | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nnamdi Madubuike | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylinn Hawkins | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tavius Robinson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Jenkins | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
