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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:42 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 11, 2026 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 5
It turned at OT 2:11, 1st and 10, on Kyle Hamilton — 50.5 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Baltimore Ravens 30–23. Biggest swing: OT 2:11, Ravens +50.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · OT 2:11 · 1st and 10
Kyle Hamilton
Ravens
(2:11) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 14-K.Hamilton at BAL 40. 14-K.Hamilton to BAL 42 for 2 yards (5-D.London).
50.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.25 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.24 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Falcons at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Ravens won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Falcons at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — +0.11 expected points per dropback, against Ravens at -0.14 expected points per dropback.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
(2:11) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 14-K.Hamilton at BAL 40. 14-K.Hamilton to BAL 42 for 2 yards (5-D.London).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Tyler Huntley's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 3:01 left in overtime put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Derrick Henry18-yd TD catch18-yard touchdown catchfrom Tyler Huntley · two-point no good+615–1711 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ravenscategory by categoryFalcons
Ravens ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 72 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Falcons’s 64 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 4, Falcons 3.
Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
ATL's blitz rate sent, 46.2%, is past their previous high of 27.5% in week 4 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.3 points. · +1.9σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Ravens-5.0 ptsright on their number · −0.2 vs their -4.8 pts, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 70 snaps
Falcons-1.7 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.9 vs their -7.7 pts, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.92× that swing) · 64 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 8% to 86%
Tendencies room →Ravens51.8%right on their number · +1.9 vs their 49.9%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 56 early downs
Falcons50.0%right on their number · +2.6 vs their 47.4%, and they swing ±15.3 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 52%
Tendencies room →Ravens17.9%leaned — dropped back clean · −10.5 vs their 28.5%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−1.28× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Falcons30.0%inside their normal wobble · +7.0 vs their 23.0%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (+0.62× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17% to 77%
Fourth Down room →Ravens0.0%leaned — took the kick · −30.0 vs their 30.0%, and they swing ±18.3 week to week (−1.64× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Falcons20.0%no read · no ruler yet — only 2 games of theirs this season
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 62%
Tendencies room →Ravens35.0%right on their number · +4.5 vs their 30.5%, and they swing ±12.2 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Falcons46.2%leaned — sent pressure · +19.5 vs their 26.6%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (+1.90× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 34%
Tendencies room →Ravens15.0%right on their number · −2.9 vs their 17.9%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Falcons17.9%right on their number · −0.1 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±3.3 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
ATL's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 46.2%, 19.5 points above their season mean of 26.6% and 1.9 times their own 10.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · ATL
19/32, 240 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
7.6 expected points added · -5.0% completion over expected
Passing · BAL
24/32, 201 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
3.4 expected points added · +6.4% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Tyler Huntley banked 5.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler HuntleyQB · Starter QB | 24.0 | +5.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/32, 201 yd, 2 TD · 6 car, 20 yd, 1 TD |
| Derrick HenryRB · Bell Cow Back | 21.0 | +0.8 | 55% | — | 6% | 0% | 24 car, 102 yd · 1/2, 18 yd, 1 TD |
| Drake LondonWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.8 | −0.1 | 98% | — | 32% | 51% | 7/11, 118 yd |
| Bijan RobinsonRB · Bell Cow Back | 15.8 | −7.1 | 81% | — | 21% | 1% | 17 car, 86 yd · 4/7, 32 yd |
| Kyle PittsTE · Rotational Receiver | 15.2 | +2.5 | 67% | — | 18% | 11% | 5/6, 42 yd, 1 TD |
| Zay FlowersWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.6 | +1.2 | 82% | — | 29% | 28% | 1 car, 13 yd · 8/9, 53 yd |
| Michael Penix Jr.QB · Starter QB | 14.4 | −5.3 | 95% | — | 0% | — | 19/32, 240 yd, 1 TD · 2 car, 8 yd |
| Rashod BatemanWR · Featured Receiver | 11.2 | +2.2 | 80% | — | 19% | 40% | 5/6, 62 yd |
| Justice HillRB · Receiving Back | 9.8 | +2.5 | 46% | — | 13% | 6% | 4 car, 73 yd · 2/4, 5 yd |
| Devontez WalkerWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.9 | +4.7 | 59% | — | 6% | 5% | 2/2, 9 yd, 1 TD |
| Jahan DotsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.4 | −2.8 | 66% | — | 12% | 31% | 2/4, 54 yd |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Featured Receiver | 4.8 | −8.4 | 72% | — | 19% | 18% | 4/6, 28 yd |
| Josh CuevasTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | +1.9 | 25% | — | 6% | 3% | 2/2, 26 yd |
| Zachariah BranchWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +1.1 | 19% | — | 6% | 0% | 2/2, 15 yd |
| Charlie WoernerTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | −0.9 | 66% | — | 6% | 5% | 1/2, 13 yd |
| Brian RobinsonRB | 1.6 | −2.9 | 22% | — | 3% | 1% | 7 car, 16 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 33% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Nick MuseTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Rasheen AliRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| LaJohntay WesterWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Tua TagovailoaQB | -0.6 | −1.8 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:11) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 14-K.Hamilton at BAL 40. 14-K.Hamilton to BAL 42 for 2 yards (5-D.London).
OT 2:11 · Falcons · 1st & 10 at ATL 48 · gained nothing · -2.66 EP · −50.5% win probability
175 snaps placed · 19 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 194 plays across 21 drives, manual charting on 188. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 78 yards from the ATL 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
194 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
194 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Shotgun, a run-pass option, a man in motion.
Six in the box.
Ravens3
Falcons0How the play was built
Shotgun, empty backfield, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Ravens3Falcons6Ravens3Falcons7Ravens6Falcons7Ravens6Falcons13Ravens6Falcons14Ravens9Falcons14Ravens9Falcons17How the play was built
Under center, two in the backfield, a screen, play action, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, seven in the box.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Ravens15Falcons17How the play was built
Under center, two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Seven rushed the passer, three of them blitzing, nine in the box.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, dropped.
Ravens15Falcons20Ravens15Falcons23Ravens21Falcons23How the play was built
Shotgun, two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Seven in the box.
Ravens23Falcons23How the play was built
Under center, two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Seven in the box.
How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, seven in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Six rushed the passer, two of them blitzing, seven in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Under center, nobody in motion.
Seven in the box.
Ravens29Falcons23Ravens30Falcons23How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Shotgun, empty backfield, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, seven in the box.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Ravens at Falcons, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | 24/32 | 201 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +3.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 24 | 102 | 4.3 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Justice Hill | 4 | 73 | 18.3 | 0 | +4.1 |
| Tyler Huntley |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashod Bateman | 5 | 6 | 62 | 0 | 19% | +5.0 |
| Zay Flowers | 8 | 9 | 53 | 0 | 29% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaki Starks | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roquan Smith | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trenton Simpson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. | 19/32 | 240 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +7.6 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2/3 | 34 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_05_BAL_ATL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Falcons closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 53 — over by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
| 6 |
| 20 |
| 3.3 |
| 1 |
| +1.6 |
| Zay Flowers | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 | +1.1 |
| +1.9 |
| Mark Andrews | 4 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 19% | −9.3 |
| Josh Cuevas | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 6% | +1.5 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 6% | +2.0 |
| Devontez Walker | 2 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 6% | +2.3 |
| Justice Hill | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 13% | −2.7 |
| 5 |
| 2 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Kyle Hamilton | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tavius Robinson | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marlon Humphrey | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasheen Ali | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ethan Burke | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylinn Hawkins | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Jones | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| −1.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 17 | 86 | 5.1 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Brian Robinson | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 | −4.0 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 7 | 11 | 118 | 0 | 32% | +7.5 |
| Jahan Dotson | 2 | 4 | 54 | 0 | 12% | +1.3 |
| Kyle Pitts | 5 | 6 | 42 | 1 | 18% | +5.7 |
| Bijan Robinson | 4 | 7 | 32 | 0 | 21% | −2.7 |
| Zachariah Branch | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 6% | +1.4 |
| Charlie Woerner | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 6% | −2.1 |
| Brian Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Jake Matthews | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Divine Deablo | 4 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Watts | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kendal Daniels | 7 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jessie Bates | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Hughes | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| LaCale London | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Harrison | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Sydney Brown | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Thomas | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Gervon Dexter Sr. | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
