For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
polling · 300s tick · as of 5:30 PM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 5 · SoFi Stadium
ScheduledThe market read · numbers on file today, not the close
The market read · numbers on file today, not the close
Rams are laid −3, and the book has the two of them scoring 53.5 points between them.
Spread
LA −3
the number, from the home side
Total
53.5
points, both clubs
2025 regular season · share of snaps
BUF implied
25.3
spread and total, solved
LA implied
28.3
spread and total, solved
No-vig two-way, normalised in probability space rather than by averaging prices — the two American numbers are converted to implied probability and divided by their sum. The implied team totals above are arithmetic on the spread and the total, not a projection of anybody's score.
Note
the 2025 regular season · offence against defence, ranked in both directions
The widest disagreement on this board is hitting the chunk play, with the Bills holding the ball. The Bills offence ranked 5 of 32 among offences at breaking off twenty yards or more; the Rams defence ranked 17 of 32 among defences at keeping the ball in front of it. That is 39 percentile points, a clear edge, and it runs the Bills’ way.
Share of plays from scrimmage that gained twenty yards or more. The chunk play is how a drive happens without a drive happening, and it is the one dimension where a single snap can settle an afternoon.
Bills offence
7.2%
5 of 32 · 1,065 plays
Rams defence
When the Rams have the ball
Matthew Staffordagainst
the Bills
projected starter · chart of Wed, Sep 9, 2026
The only line on this board whose two sides are different verbs: the offence's number is sacks taken and it wants it low, the defence's is sacks made and it wants it high. The denominator is dropbacks, not pass attempts, because a sack is a failed dropback and dividing by completed attempts would flatter the worst protections in football.
Note
the 2025 regular season · the rooms, read for these two clubs
Last season, labelled as last season
There is no 2026 play-by-play at all yet — the plays are about 20 minutes after each final, with the 5:00 AM ET nightly sync behind it and the Monday 4:00 AM ET weekly sync as the audited pass, and no game has been played. So every rate below is drawn from the 2025 regular season, labelled that way on purpose rather than dressed up as a forecast for this one.
How far a play-caller ran from the pass rate the situation asked for, in percentage points. A team above zero passes more than the down, distance and score script called for; a team below it runs more. A scramble counts as a pass, because the model's idea of a pass is the dropback.
Bills
-3.5
19 of 32 · 1,056 plays
Rams
+3.0
3 of 32 · 1,056 plays
Share of fourth downs on which the offence ran a play instead of kicking. The denominator is every fourth down with a decision on it — go, field goal or punt.
Bills
31.7%
2 of 32 · 101 fourth downs
Share of charted dropbacks this defence sent an extra rusher on. Charting is a separate feed from the play-by-play and it begins in 2022, so an older basis season has no blitz number at all.
Bills
30.7%
11 of 32 · 535 charted dropbacks
Share of this offence's possessions that ended in a touchdown or a field goal.
Bills
44.8%
7 of 32 · 174 possessions
Rams
47.0%
Share of opponent possessions this defence let end in points. Lower is better, and the rank reads that way — rank 1 is the stingiest defence in the league. Every possession in football is one team's drive and another team's stop, so POOLED over the league these are the same drives counted twice. The figure printed here is the unweighted mean of the qualifying clubs' rates, which is a different average: a club that faces more drives than it runs pulls the two apart, by a few hundredths over a full season and by a few tenths early in one.
Bills
37.3%
11 of 32 · 177 possessions defended
Projected starters · 2026 depth charts
Offence
Defence
Special teams
Offence
Defence
Note
2025 regular season, weeks 1 through 18
| Player | G | Snap | Tgt | Car | RZ | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QBJosh Allen | 16 | 97.9% | 0.0% | 22.8% | 33 | 22.8 |
| WRKeon Coleman | 12 | 66.0% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 12 | 8.5 |
| TEDawson Knox | 15 | 62.2% | 11.3% | 0.0% | 12 | 6.2 |
| RBJames Cook | 16 | 60.6% | 8.7% | 61.5% | 59 | 18.8 |
| WRKhalil Shakir | 16 | 59.8% | 21.1% | 0.2% | 15 | 10.4 |
| WRJosh Palmer | 11 | 51.7% | 10.5% | 0.0% | 6 | 4.0 |
| TEJackson Hawes | 13 | 46.2% | 5.7% | 0.0% | 3 | 4.1 |
| WRTyrell Shavers | 11 | 41.6% | 7.7% | 0.0% | — | 4.1 |
| Player | G | Snap | Tgt | Car | RZ | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QBMatthew Stafford | 17 | 98.5% | 0.0% | 6.2% | 7 | 20.6 |
| WRDavante Adams | 14 | 71.4% | 25.1% | 0.0% | 32 | 15.9 |
| RBKyren Williams |
Note
Head to head · every meeting on record
Finals only, both home orderings folded together, newest first. Kickoff for this one is Mon, Oct 12, 2026.
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
The market number, who both clubs have been, and the one question this matchup asks.
/football/games/2026_05_BUF_LA
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Conditions and crew
5.6%
17 of 32 · 1,068 plays
Week to week Bills's offence held its middle half of weeks between 5.3% and 9.1% over 17 weeks — 1.3 times the league's whole season spread, about as wide as the league itself. Rams's defence held its own between 3.5% and 8.1% — 1.9 times the league's whole season spread, wider than the league itself.
Bills offence
48.6%
2 of 32 · 819 early downs
Rams defence
42.2%
13 of 32 · 796 early downs
Bills offence
6.7%
19 of 32 · 593 dropbacks
Rams defence
7.1%
9 of 32 · 662 dropbacks
Bills offence
+0.136
3 of 32 · 1,065 plays
Rams defence
−0.061
9 of 32 · 1,068 plays
Bills offence
46.3%
3 of 32 · 205 third downs
Rams defence
36.4%
6 of 32 · 225 third downs
Rams offence
3.7%
2 of 32 · 624 dropbacks
Bills defence
6.7%
14 of 32 · 535 dropbacks
Week to week Rams's offence held its middle half of weeks between 2.1% and 6.7% over 17 weeks — 1.0 times the league's whole season spread, about as wide as the league itself. Bills's defence held its own between 2.9% and 9.1% — 1.4 times the league's whole season spread, wider than the league itself.
Rams offence
+0.145
2 of 32 · 1,056 plays
Bills defence
−0.016
13 of 32 · 950 plays
Rams offence
8.0%
2 of 32 · 1,056 plays
Bills defence
5.4%
12 of 32 · 950 plays
Rams offence
40.4%
16 of 32 · 188 third downs
Bills defence
42.4%
24 of 32 · 203 third downs
Rams offence
53.1%
1 of 32 · 838 early downs
Bills defence
41.6%
8 of 32 · 722 early downs
Rams
28.6%
6 of 32 · 105 fourth downs
Rams
24.8%
24 of 32 · 662 charted dropbacks
4 of 32 · 181 possessions
Rams
34.7%
7 of 32 · 176 possessions defended
Special teams
| 17 |
| 68.3% |
| 8.1% |
| 57.3% |
| 63 |
| 15.5 |
| WRPuka Nacua | 16 | 68.3% | 30.1% | 2.2% | 18 | 23.4 |
| TEColby Parkinson | 14 | 62.4% | 11.7% | 0.0% | 22 | 9.3 |
| TETyler Higbee | 10 | 55.5% | 11.0% | 0.0% | 8 | 7.1 |
| TEDavis Allen | 15 | 51.7% | 6.3% | 0.0% | 7 | 4.2 |
| WRJordan Whittington | 13 | 48.8% | 5.6% | 0.8% | 2 | 2.8 |
