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polling · 300s tick · as of 5:30 PM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 5 · Lambeau Field
ScheduledThe market read · numbers on file today, not the close
The market read · numbers on file today, not the close
Packers are laid −3, and the book has the two of them scoring 49.5 points between them.
Spread
GB −3
the number, from the home side
Total
49.5
points, both clubs
2025 regular season · share of snaps
CHI implied
23.3
spread and total, solved
GB implied
26.3
spread and total, solved
No-vig two-way, normalised in probability space rather than by averaging prices — the two American numbers are converted to implied probability and divided by their sum. The implied team totals above are arithmetic on the spread and the total, not a projection of anybody's score.
Note
the 2025 regular season · offence against defence, ranked in both directions
The widest disagreement on this board is hitting the chunk play, with the Packers holding the ball. The Packers offence ranked 8 of 32 among offences at breaking off twenty yards or more; the Bears defence ranked 31 of 32 among defences at keeping the ball in front of it. That is 74 percentile points, a mismatch, and it runs the Packers’ way.
When the Bears have the ball
Caleb Williamsagainst
the Packers
projected starter · chart of Wed, Sep 9, 2026
The only line on this board whose two sides are different verbs: the offence's number is sacks taken and it wants it low, the defence's is sacks made and it wants it high. The denominator is dropbacks, not pass attempts, because a sack is a failed dropback and dividing by completed attempts would flatter the worst protections in football.
Bears offence
3.7%
When the Packers have the ball
Jordan Loveagainst
the Bears
projected starter · chart of Wed, Sep 9, 2026
Share of plays from scrimmage that gained twenty yards or more. The chunk play is how a drive happens without a drive happening, and it is the one dimension where a single snap can settle an afternoon.
Note
the 2025 regular season · the rooms, read for these two clubs
Last season, labelled as last season
There is no 2026 play-by-play at all yet — the plays are about 20 minutes after each final, with the 5:00 AM ET nightly sync behind it and the Monday 4:00 AM ET weekly sync as the audited pass, and no game has been played. So every rate below is drawn from the 2025 regular season, labelled that way on purpose rather than dressed up as a forecast for this one.
How far a play-caller ran from the pass rate the situation asked for, in percentage points. A team above zero passes more than the down, distance and score script called for; a team below it runs more. A scramble counts as a pass, because the model's idea of a pass is the dropback.
Bears
-3.9
22 of 32 · 1,090 plays
Packers
-4.4
24 of 32 · 991 plays
Share of fourth downs on which the offence ran a play instead of kicking. The denominator is every fourth down with a decision on it — go, field goal or punt.
Bears
23.0%
19 of 32 · 126 fourth downs
Share of charted dropbacks this defence sent an extra rusher on. Charting is a separate feed from the play-by-play and it begins in 2022, so an older basis season has no blitz number at all.
Bears
29.5%
14 of 32 · 597 charted dropbacks
Share of this offence's possessions that ended in a touchdown or a field goal.
Bears
43.7%
9 of 32 · 183 possessions
Packers
43.4%
Share of opponent possessions this defence let end in points. Lower is better, and the rank reads that way — rank 1 is the stingiest defence in the league. Every possession in football is one team's drive and another team's stop, so POOLED over the league these are the same drives counted twice. The figure printed here is the unweighted mean of the qualifying clubs' rates, which is a different average: a club that faces more drives than it runs pulls the two apart, by a few hundredths over a full season and by a few tenths early in one.
Bears
39.2%
15 of 32 · 181 possessions defended
Projected starters · 2026 depth charts
Offence
Defence
Special teams
Offence
Defence
Note
2025 regular season, weeks 1 through 18
| Player | G | Snap | Tgt | Car | RZ | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QBCaleb Williams | 17 | 99.1% | 0.3% | 15.8% | 21 | 18.7 |
| WRRome Odunze | 12 | 88.1% | 23.6% | 0.0% | 13 | 12.2 |
| WRDJ Moore | 17 | 84.8% | 16.1% | 3.0% | 13 | 10.1 |
| TECole Kmet | 16 | 71.4% | 9.6% | 0.0% | 7 | 4.9 |
| TEColston Loveland | 15 | 68.1% | 17.0% | 0.2% | 16 | 10.7 |
| WROlamide Zaccheaus | 14 | 59.6% | 14.7% | 1.0% | 13 | 6.1 |
| RBD'Andre Swift | 16 | 57.9% | 9.4% | 48.0% | 41 | 14.3 |
| RBKyle Monangai | 17 | 40.9% | 5.7% | 32.1% | 41 | 8.6 |
| Player | G | Snap | Tgt | Car | RZ | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QBJordan Love | 15 | 94.3% | 0.0% | 11.0% | 6 | 15.7 |
| TETucker Kraft | 8 | 86.0% | 19.0% | 0.5% | 12 | 14.7 |
| WRRomeo Doubs |
Note
Head to head · every meeting on record
Finals only, both home orderings folded together, newest first. Kickoff for this one is Sun, Oct 11, 2026.
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
The market number, who both clubs have been, and the one question this matchup asks.
/football/games/2026_05_CHI_GB
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
3 of 32 · 644 dropbacks
Packers defence
5.9%
21 of 32 · 613 dropbacks
Week to week Bears's offence held its middle half of weeks between 2.4% and 5.0% over 17 weeks — 0.6 times the league's whole season spread, tighter than the league itself — a habit rather than an average of different afternoons. Packers's defence held its own between 2.4% and 7.7% — 1.2 times the league's whole season spread, about as wide as the league itself.
Bears offence
+0.079
8 of 32 · 1,096 plays
Packers defence
+0.034
22 of 32 · 1,057 plays
Bears offence
45.6%
11 of 32 · 833 early downs
Packers defence
44.8%
20 of 32 · 799 early downs
Bears offence
42.5%
11 of 32 · 228 third downs
Packers defence
40.6%
17 of 32 · 217 third downs
Bears offence
6.5%
7 of 32 · 1,096 plays
Packers defence
4.6%
6 of 32 · 1,057 plays
Packers offence
6.4%
8 of 32 · 993 plays
Bears defence
7.2%
31 of 32 · 1,022 plays
Week to week Packers's offence held its middle half of weeks between 4.6% and 9.5% over 17 weeks — 1.6 times the league's whole season spread, wider than the league itself. Bears's defence held its own between 5.1% and 8.6% — 1.5 times the league's whole season spread, wider than the league itself.
Packers offence
46.4%
6 of 32 · 760 early downs
Bears defence
47.8%
28 of 32 · 803 early downs
Packers offence
48.5%
2 of 32 · 206 third downs
Bears defence
40.8%
19 of 32 · 191 third downs
Packers offence
+0.115
4 of 32 · 993 plays
Bears defence
+0.018
19 of 32 · 1,022 plays
Packers offence
5.2%
12 of 32 · 554 dropbacks
Bears defence
5.9%
22 of 32 · 597 dropbacks
Packers
24.5%
15 of 32 · 102 fourth downs
Packers
23.8%
28 of 32 · 613 charted dropbacks
10 of 32 · 166 possessions
Packers
42.8%
24 of 32 · 159 possessions defended
Special teams
| 16 |
| 77.6% |
| 18.9% |
| 0.0% |
| 18 |
| 10.3 |
| WRChristian Watson | 10 | 67.7% | 20.3% | 0.3% | 7 | 13.2 |
| RBJosh Jacobs | 15 | 59.1% | 10.2% | 56.6% | 58 | 15.8 |
| WRMatthew Golden | 13 | 56.6% | 13.0% | 2.3% | 4 | 5.4 |
| WRJayden Reed | 5 | 53.0% | 17.1% | 2.0% | 4 | 9.7 |
| TEJosh Whyle | 6 | 51.2% | 5.1% | 0.0% | 1 | 2.4 |
