For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 11, 2026 · Hard Rock Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 5
It turned at Q2 7:03, 2nd and 6, on Chase Brown — 9.4 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Cincinnati Bengals 31–24. Biggest swing: Q2 7:03, Dolphins +9.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 7:03 · 2nd and 6
Chase Brown
Dolphins
(7:03) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 30-C.Brown to MIA 7 for 3 yards (3-C.Johnson). FUMBLES (3-C.Johnson), RECOVERED by MIA-44-C.Robinson at MIA 7. 44-C.Robinson to MIA 18 for 11 yards (1-J.Chase). FUMBLES (1-J.Chase), recovered by MIA-9-J.Uche at MIA 23.
9.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — 12 chunk plays, against Bengals at 4 chunk plays.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Bengals won this one — 1 giveaway, against Dolphins at 3 giveaways.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bengals won this one — +0.29 expected points per dropback, against Dolphins at -0.15 expected points per dropback.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bengals won this one — 56% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Dolphins at 47% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 12.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 34 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
(7:03) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 30-C.Brown to MIA 7 for 3 yards (3-C.Johnson). FUMBLES (3-C.Johnson), RECOVERED by MIA-44-C.Robinson at MIA 7. 44-C.Robinson to MIA 18 for 11 yards (1-J.Chase). FUMBLES (1-J
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Samaje Perine's 6-yard touchdown catch with 11:56 left in the 2nd put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Samaje Perine6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe BurrowLead never changed again+714–7
Kevin Coleman Jr.3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Malik Willis · two-point good+828–189 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Bengalscategory by categoryDolphins
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Bengals, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 61 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 64 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 6, Dolphins 4.
Dolphins outgained Bengals 333-309 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
MIA's pass rate over expected, −19.5 pts, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 5 — 1.7 points clear of the next team along.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 5 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
CIN's early-down pass rate turned over: 78.9% in week 4 against 47.9% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 5 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.9 points. · −1.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 12 pts
Over Expected room →Bengals5.3 ptsright on their number · −0.1 vs their 5.4 pts, and they swing ±1.8 week to week (−0.03× that swing) · 61 snaps
Dolphins-19.5 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −8.4 vs their -11.1 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−1.09× that swing) · 63 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 25% to 94%
Tendencies room →Bengals47.9%inside their normal wobble · −12.8 vs their 60.7%, and they swing ±12.9 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 48 early downs
Dolphins46.9%inside their normal wobble · −5.5 vs their 52.5%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (−0.53× that swing) · 49 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 46%
Tendencies room →Bengals15.2%right on their number · −1.5 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Dolphins20.6%inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 25.4%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 7% to 60%
Fourth Down room →Bengals—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Dolphins—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11% to 67%
Tendencies room →Bengals14.7%right on their number · −2.6 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Dolphins21.2%right on their number · −6.9 vs their 28.1%, and they swing ±15.2 week to week (−0.46× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 33%
Tendencies room →Bengals14.7%inside their normal wobble · −3.3 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Dolphins12.1%right on their number · −0.9 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.15× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
MIA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -19.5 pts, 8.4 points below their season mean of -11.1 pts and 1.1 times their own 7.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · CIN
23/32, 190 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
13.9 expected points added · +8.2% completion over expected
Passing · MIA
15/27, 137 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-11.4 expected points added · -1.8% completion over expected
Receiving · MIA
6/8 for 43 yds, 0 TD
31% of team targets · 0.9 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Samaje Perine banked 4.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe BurrowQB · Starter QB | 24.6 | +2.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/32, 190 yd, 4 TD · 4 car, 10 yd |
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.7 | −1.1 | 89% | — | 32% | 56% | 6/10, 77 yd, 1 TD |
| Malik WillisQB · Starter QB | 18.9 | −7.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/27, 137 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 8 car, 74 yd, 1 TD |
| Samaje PerineRB · Committee Back | 15.8 | +4.7 | 51% | — | 6% | 0% | 14 car, 68 yd · 2/2, 10 yd, 1 TD |
| Ollie Gordon IIRB · Committee Back | 14.8 | −5.8 | 65% | — | 0% | — | 18 car, 88 yd, 1 TD |
| Malik WashingtonWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.1 | −0.7 | 80% | — | 31% | 35% | 1 car, 18 yd · 6/8, 43 yd |
| Kevin Coleman Jr.WR · Alpha Receiver | 12.0 | −0.3 | 64% | — | 27% | 30% | 3/7, 30 yd, 1 TD |
| Tanner HudsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.4 | +2.9 | 29% | — | 10% | 4% | 3/3, 14 yd, 1 TD |
| Greg DulcichTE · Featured Receiver | 9.7 | +0.5 | 74% | — | 19% | 12% | 4/5, 37 yd |
| Mike GesickiTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.4 | +1.4 | 45% | — | 6% | 9% | 1/2, 4 yd, 1 TD |
| Chase BrownRB · Committee Back | 7.0 | −8.6 | 60% | — | 13% | 0% | 13 car, 39 yd · 3/4, 21 yd |
| Erick AllTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.5 | +1.1 | 52% | — | 10% | 5% | 3/3, 25 yd |
| Tee HigginsWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | −2.5 | 69% | — | 13% | 23% | 2/4, 22 yd |
| Dohnte MeyersWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | +0.3 | 29% | — | 6% | 4% | 2/2, 12 yd |
| Jalen TolbertWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | −1.6 | 23% | — | 8% | 10% | 1/2, 22 yd |
| Chris BellWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | −1.8 | 71% | — | 8% | 14% | 1 car, 26 yd · 0/2, 0 yd |
| Drew SampleTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −0.1 | 52% | — | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Will KacmarekTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −1.2 | 38% | — | 8% | 0% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Jaylen WrightRB | 1.1 | −1.9 | 14% | — | 0% | — | 6 car, 11 yd |
| Tahj BrooksRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Seydou TraoreTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
47-R.Patterson kicks 56 yards from MIA 35 to CIN 9. 81-D.Meyers to MIA 10 for 81 yards (32-J.Simpson).
Q1 15:00 · Bengals · Kickoff at MIA 35 · gained nothing · +4.23 EP · +15.3% win probability
158 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 172 plays across 20 drives, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 80 yards from the MIA 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Bengals6
Dolphins0Bengals7Dolphins0Bengals7Dolphins6Bengals7Dolphins7Bengals13Dolphins7Bengals14Dolphins7How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown as a checkdown.
Bengals20Dolphins7Bengals21Dolphins7Bengals21Dolphins10Bengals27Dolphins10Bengals28Dolphins10Bengals28Dolphins16Bengals28Dolphins18Bengals31Dolphins18Bengals31Dolphins24Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bengals at Dolphins, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 23/32 | 190 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +13.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samaje Perine | 14 | 68 | 4.9 | 0 | +2.1 |
| Chase Brown | 13 | 39 | 3.0 | 0 | −3.2 |
| Joe Burrow |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 6 | 10 | 77 | 1 | 32% | +2.3 |
| Erick All | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 10% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrett Carter | 5 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demetrius Knight Jr. | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Battle |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Willis | 15/27 | 137 | 1 | 2 | 3 | −11.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_05_CIN_MIA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bengals closed -7 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 55 — over by 10.5.
Conditions and crew
| 4 |
| 10 |
| 2.5 |
| 0 |
| −0.2 |
| +2.1 |
| Tee Higgins | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 13% | +0.4 |
| Chase Brown | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 13% | −4.6 |
| Tanner Hudson | 3 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 10% | +2.5 |
| Dohnte Meyers | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 6% | +1.3 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 6% | +3.1 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 6% | +1.7 |
| 5 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| Bryan Cook | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Allen | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Daxton Hill | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dexter Lawrence | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tedarrell Slaton | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Ivey | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Oren Burks | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 18 | 88 | 4.9 | 1 | +3.0 |
| Malik Willis | 8 | 74 | 9.3 | 1 | +4.3 |
| Chris Bell | 1 | 26 | 26.0 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Malik Washington | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 | +1.6 |
| Jaylen Wright | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Washington | 6 | 8 | 43 | 0 | 31% | +0.9 |
| Greg Dulcich | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 19% | +1.3 |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. | 3 | 7 | 30 | 1 | 27% | −2.6 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 8% | +0.9 |
| Will Kacmarek | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8% | −1.2 |
| Chris Bell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −1.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Rodriguez | 4 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Willie Gay Jr. | 1 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordyn Brooks | 1 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dante Trader Jr. | 1 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Julius Brents | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Chris Johnson | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jackson Woodard | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Marshall Jr. | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Taaffe | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylin Simpson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
