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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 11, 2026 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 5
It turned at Q4 4:20, 1st and 10, on Geno Smith — 33.9 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
New York Jets 17–12. Biggest swing: Q4 4:20, Browns +33.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 4:20 · 1st and 10
Geno Smith
Browns
(4:20) 7-G.Smith sacked at CLE 48 for -9 yards (49-C.Schwesinger). FUMBLES (49-C.Schwesinger) [49-C.Schwesinger], RECOVERED by CLE-98-A.Huntington at NYJ 48. 98-A.Huntington to NYJ 43 for 5 yards (66-J.Tippmann; 70-A.Membou).
33.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Jets won this one — +0.05 expected points per carry, against Browns at -0.42 expected points per carry.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Jets won this one — 39% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Browns at 25% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Jets won this one — 8 of 17 on third down, against Browns at 4 of 16 on third down.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Jets won this one — -0.18 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.30 expected points per snap.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
(4:20) 7-G.Smith sacked at CLE 48 for -9 yards (49-C.Schwesinger). FUMBLES (49-C.Schwesinger) [49-C.Schwesinger], RECOVERED by CLE-98-A.Huntington at NYJ 48. 98-A.Huntington to NYJ 43 for 5 yards (66-J.Tippmann; 70-A.Mem
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Braelon Allen's 22-yard rushing touchdown with 3:07 left in the 4th put New York Jets ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Denzel Boston29-yd TD catch29-yard touchdown catchfrom Deshaun Watson · kick no good, hit right upright+612–106 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Brownscategory by categoryJets
Jets ahead 6–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 65 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Jets’s 64 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Browns 2, Jets 4.
Jets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.30.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
NYJ's sack or hit rate, 29.5%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 5 — 3.8 points clear of the next team along.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points. · +1.9σ from their own normal
CLE's play-action rate, 11.4%, is past their previous low of 13.5% in week 4 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.7 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Browns-3.0 ptsright on their number · −2.6 vs their -0.4 pts, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 65 snaps
Jets-6.2 ptsright on their number · −2.4 vs their -3.8 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.42× that swing) · 64 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 27% to 78%
Tendencies room →Browns61.7%inside their normal wobble · +3.8 vs their 57.9%, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (+0.95× that swing) · 47 early downs
Jets48.9%right on their number · −3.8 vs their 52.7%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−0.37× that swing) · 47 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 0% to 43%
Tendencies room →Browns11.4%leaned — dropped back clean · −7.6 vs their 19.0%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−1.33× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Jets17.1%inside their normal wobble · −4.3 vs their 21.4%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.52× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -57% to 110%
Fourth Down room →Browns—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Jets0.0%inside their normal wobble · −26.7 vs their 26.7%, and they swing ±32.7 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 60%
Tendencies room →Browns28.6%inside their normal wobble · +5.4 vs their 23.1%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+0.70× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Jets43.2%inside their normal wobble · +6.1 vs their 37.1%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+0.69× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 35%
Tendencies room →Browns22.9%inside their normal wobble · +4.6 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+0.90× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Jets29.5%leaned — got home · +14.8 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+1.85× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
NYJ's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 29.5%, 14.8 points above their season mean of 14.7% and 1.9 times their own 8.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
New York Jets
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · NYJ
17/30, 182 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-11.3 expected points added · -9.0% completion over expected
Passing · CLE
15/33, 155 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-12.5 expected points added · -15.6% completion over expected
Receiving · NYJ
7/11 for 104 yds, 1 TD
38% of team targets · 6.3 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Garrett Wilson banked 5.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett WilsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 23.4 | +5.4 | 93% | — | 38% | 54% | 7/11, 104 yd, 1 TD |
| Braelon AllenRB · Bell Cow Back | 18.6 | +1.1 | 86% | — | 14% | 0% | 24 car, 116 yd, 1 TD · 1/4, 0 yd |
| Denzel BostonWR · Featured Receiver | 13.6 | +2.9 | 91% | — | 22% | 31% | 3/7, 46 yd, 1 TD |
| Deshaun WatsonQB · Starter QB | 12.2 | −3.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/33, 155 yd, 1 TD · 6 car, 40 yd |
| Isaiah BondWR · Featured Receiver | 10.4 | −0.3 | 72% | — | 22% | 37% | 3/7, 74 yd |
| Geno SmithQB · Starter QB | 10.0 | −1.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/30, 182 yd, 1 TD · 5 car, 7 yd |
| Quinshon JudkinsRB · Committee Back | 8.0 | −4.8 | 53% | — | 13% | 0% | 14 car, 44 yd · 3/4, 6 yd |
| Mason TaylorTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | +1.7 | 59% | — | 10% | 7% | 3/3, 24 yd |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Featured Receiver | 4.9 | −4.8 | 81% | — | 22% | 21% | 3/7, 19 yd |
| Tim PatrickWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | −0.1 | 93% | — | 10% | 18% | 2/3, 26 yd |
| Isaiah WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −1.9 | 61% | — | 7% | 25% | 1 car, 3 yd · 1/2, 16 yd |
| Isaiah DavisRB | 2.7 | −0.7 | 14% | — | 7% | 0% | 2 car, 8 yd · 1/2, 9 yd |
| Raheim SandersRB | 2.3 | −0.3 | 29% | — | 3% | 0% | 3 car, 12 yd · 1/1, 1 yd |
| KC ConcepcionWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.3 | 16% | — | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Harold Fannin Jr.TE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −4.5 | 93% | — | 13% | 11% | 1/4, 4 yd |
| Kenyon SadiqTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.3 | −4.0 | 19% | — | 10% | 5% | 2/3, 3 yd |
| Jaleel McLaughlinRB | 0.0 | −1.4 | 21% | — | 3% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Michael BurtonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Malachi CorleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 24% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Kene NwangwuRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Jelani WoodsTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 36% | — | 3% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Malik McClainWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:20) 7-G.Smith sacked at CLE 48 for -9 yards (49-C.Schwesinger). FUMBLES (49-C.Schwesinger) [49-C.Schwesinger], RECOVERED by CLE-98-A.Huntington at NYJ 48. 98-A.Huntington to NYJ 43 for 5 yards (66-J.Tippmann; 70-A.Membou).
Q4 4:20 · Jets · 1st & 10 at CLE 39 · lost 13 · -5.84 EP · −36.6% win probability
173 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 184 plays across 26 drives, manual charting on 179. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 86 yards from the CLE 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Browns0
Jets6Browns0Jets7Browns3Jets7How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, six in the box.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
Browns6Jets7How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the second read.
Browns6Jets10How the play was built
Shotgun, two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, six in the box.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Three rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Browns12Jets10How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Under center, two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, eight in the box.
From outside the pocket.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Seven in the box.
Browns12Jets16Browns12Jets17Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Browns at Jets, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 15/33 | 155 | 1 | 0 | 8 | −12.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinshon Judkins | 14 | 44 | 3.1 | 0 | −2.7 |
| Deshaun Watson | 6 | 40 | 6.7 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Raheim Sanders |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Bond | 3 | 7 | 74 | 0 | 22% | +3.7 |
| Denzel Boston | 3 | 7 | 46 | 1 | 22% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Williams | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Carson Schwesinger | 5 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Denzel Ward |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 17/30 | 182 | 1 | 0 | 4 | −11.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_05_CLE_NYJ
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Jets closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Total closed 38.5; the game landed 29 — under by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
| 3 |
| 12 |
| 4.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.1 |
| Corey Bojorquez | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −4.1 |
| +2.9 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 3 | 7 | 19 | 0 | 22% | −1.4 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 3 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 13% | −1.9 |
| KC Concepcion | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | +1.8 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 13% | −3.6 |
| Raheim Sanders | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3% | −1.1 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Adin Huntington | 1 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyson Campbell | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Harden | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Williams | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grant Delpit | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sam Kamara | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jared Verse | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Braelon Allen | 24 | 116 | 4.8 | 1 | +0.9 |
| Isaiah Davis | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Geno Smith | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Isaiah Williams | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 7 | 11 | 104 | 1 | 38% | +6.3 |
| Tim Patrick | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 10% | +1.5 |
| Mason Taylor | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 10% | +1.5 |
| Isaiah Williams | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 7% | −0.9 |
| Isaiah Davis | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 7% | −1.0 |
| Kenyon Sadiq | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 10% | −6.2 |
| Braelon Allen | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14% | −2.7 |
| Jelani Woods | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dane Belton | 3 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Bailey | 5 | 2 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarvis Brownlee Jr. | 5 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Darrell Jackson Jr. | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Will McDonald IV | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demario Davis | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamien Sherwood | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brandon Stephens | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jowon Briggs | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
