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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:42 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 11, 2026 · SoFi Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 5
It turned at Q4 8:06, 2nd and 10, on Justin Herbert — 21.0 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Denver Broncos 23–17. Biggest swing: Q4 8:06, Broncos +21.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 8:06 · 2nd and 10
Justin Herbert
Broncos
(8:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 24 for -8 yards (99-Z.Allen). FUMBLES (99-Z.Allen) [99-Z.Allen], RECOVERED by DEN-51-Q.Robinson at LAC 23.
21.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 14 on third down, against Broncos at 1 of 12 on third down.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Broncos won this one — 1 giveaway, against Chargers at 3 giveaways.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 5 chunk plays, against Broncos at 3 chunk plays.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Broncos won this one — 33% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chargers at 27% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 12.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
(8:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 24 for -8 yards (99-Z.Allen). FUMBLES (99-Z.Allen) [99-Z.Allen], RECOVERED by DEN-51-Q.Robinson at LAC 23.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Wil Lutz's 19-yard field goal with 5:10 left in the 4th put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Wil Lutz19-yd field goal19-yard field goalholder J.Crawshaw · snap M.FraboniLead never changed again+320–178 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Broncoscategory by categoryChargers
Broncos ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Chargers, in third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 57 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Chargers’s 62 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 5, Chargers 2.
Chargers outgained Broncos 237-224 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DEN's pass rate over expected, −7.0 pts, is past their previous low of −4.5 pts in week 4 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 3.1 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
LAC's play-action rate, 22.6%, is past their previous low of 23.7% in week 3 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 3.4 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
LAC's sack or hit rate turned over: 30.8% in week 4 against 10.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points. · −0.9σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 10 pts
Over Expected room →Broncos-7.0 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −3.9 vs their -3.1 pts, and they swing ±3.1 week to week (−1.27× that swing) · 57 snaps
Chargers-17.8 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −8.0 vs their -9.8 pts, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 62 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 28% to 75%
Tendencies room →Broncos45.5%inside their normal wobble · −7.7 vs their 53.2%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.95× that swing) · 44 early downs
Chargers41.3%leaned — ran early · −10.3 vs their 51.6%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−1.13× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 35%
Tendencies room →Broncos20.7%right on their number · −1.1 vs their 21.8%, and they swing ±3.2 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Chargers22.6%leaned — dropped back clean · −3.7 vs their 26.3%, and they swing ±3.4 week to week (−1.09× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26% to 62%
Fourth Down room →Broncos25.0%leaned — went for it · +15.0 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±13.7 week to week (+1.10× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Chargers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 12.5%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 12% to 60%
Tendencies room →Broncos29.0%inside their normal wobble · −7.2 vs their 36.2%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−0.76× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Chargers31.0%inside their normal wobble · +3.6 vs their 27.4%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 42%
Tendencies room →Broncos19.4%right on their number · −0.6 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.11× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Chargers10.3%inside their normal wobble · −8.1 vs their 18.5%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.88× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
DEN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -7.0 pts, 3.9 points below their season mean of -3.1 pts and 1.3 times their own 3.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · DEN
Bo NixQB
16/27, 123 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-6.5 expected points added · -0.2% completion over expected
Passing · LAC
14/24, 121 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-10.3 expected points added · -6.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Kimani Vidal banked 5.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. DobbinsRB · Bell Cow Back | 15.4 | +0.3 | 52% | — | 9% | 0% | 18 car, 68 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 6 yd |
| Kimani VidalRB | 12.6 | +5.9 | 42% | — | 10% | 0% | 8 car, 57 yd, 1 TD · 1/2, -1 yd |
| Justin HerbertQB · Starter QB | 10.2 | −2.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 14/24, 121 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 6 car, 54 yd |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.8 | +3.5 | 81% | — | 14% | 23% | 2/3, 18 yd, 1 TD |
| Evan EngramTE · Featured Receiver | 9.5 | +2.4 | 48% | — | 18% | 31% | 4/4, 55 yd |
| Bo NixQB · Starter QB | 7.9 | −7.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/27, 123 yd, 1 TD · 4 car, 10 yd |
| Hayden RucciTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.7 | +3.9 | 18% | — | 5% | 5% | 1/1, 7 yd, 1 TD |
| Keaton MitchellRB · Receiving Back | 5.9 | −2.9 | 34% | — | 19% | 0% | 6 car, 11 yd · 3/4, 18 yd |
| Omarion HamptonRB · Committee Back | 4.9 | −3.3 | 30% | — | 5% | 1% | 14 car, 33 yd · 1/1, 6 yd |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Featured Receiver | 4.8 | −3.6 | 65% | — | 23% | 22% | 1 car, 9 yd · 2/5, 19 yd |
| Charlie KolarTE · Featured Receiver | 4.7 | −1.7 | 76% | — | 19% | 22% | 3/4, 37 yd |
| Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | −0.5 | 75% | — | 14% | 20% | 2/3, 22 yd |
| Troy FranklinWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | +0.7 | 63% | — | 9% | 12% | 2/2, 16 yd |
| Tre HarrisWR · Featured Receiver | 3.6 | −2.6 | 45% | — | 19% | 21% | 2/4, 16 yd |
| Marvin Mims Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −0.8 | 19% | — | 9% | 0% | 1 car, 3 yd · 2/2, 6 yd |
| Theo Wease Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | +0.8 | 64% | — | 5% | 8% | 1/1, 16 yd |
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −0.9 | 23% | — | 9% | 10% | 1/2, 8 yd |
| Tyler BadieRB | 1.1 | −1.0 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| RJ HarveyRB | 0.7 | −4.5 | 37% | — | 5% | 14% | 3 car, 7 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Adam PrenticeRB | 0.3 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Derius DavisWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 15% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Oronde Gadsden IITE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.3 | 58% | — | 5% | 31% | 0/1, 0 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(8:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 24 for -8 yards (99-Z.Allen). FUMBLES (99-Z.Allen) [99-Z.Allen], RECOVERED by DEN-51-Q.Robinson at LAC 23.
Q4 8:06 · Chargers · 2nd & 10 at LAC 32 · lost 9 · -5.81 EP · −20.6% win probability
163 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 177 plays across 26 drives, manual charting on 172. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 73 yards from the LAC 27 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Broncos6
Chargers0Broncos7Chargers0Broncos7Chargers3Broncos10Chargers3How the play was built
Shotgun, empty backfield, a man in motion.
Seven in the box.
Broncos10Chargers9Broncos10Chargers10How the play was built
Under center, play action, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, seven in the box.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
How the play was built
Under center, two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Seven in the box.
Broncos10Chargers16Broncos10Chargers17How the play was built
Shotgun, play action, nobody in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Broncos16Chargers17Broncos17Chargers17How the play was built
Shotgun, play action, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Broncos20Chargers17Broncos23Chargers17How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, three in the box.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Broncos at Chargers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 16/27 | 123 | 1 | 0 | 1 | −6.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 18 | 68 | 3.8 | 1 | −2.9 |
| Bo Nix | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 | −4.0 |
| Jaylen Waddle |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 4 | 4 | 55 | 0 | 18% | +1.6 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 23% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Strnad | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Alex Singleton | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahdae Barron |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 14/24 | 121 | 1 | 1 | 5 | −10.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_05_DEN_LAC
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Broncos closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 40 — under by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1 |
| 9 |
| 9.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.9 |
| RJ Harvey | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Tyler Badie | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Adam Prentice | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.0 |
| +0.5 |
| Courtland Sutton | 2 | 3 | 18 | 1 | 14% | +0.7 |
| Troy Franklin | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 9% | −0.5 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 9% | +1.6 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 9% | −1.0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 9% | −1.1 |
| RJ Harvey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.8 |
| Tyler Badie | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 | 5% | −1.4 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Ja'Quan McMillian | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Que Robinson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nik Bonitto | 3 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Jones | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jones | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Dondrea Tillman | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eyioma Uwazurike | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kimani Vidal | 8 | 57 | 7.1 | 1 | +0.3 |
| Justin Herbert | 6 | 54 | 9.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Omarion Hampton | 14 | 33 | 2.4 | 0 | −6.1 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 | −2.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Kolar | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 19% | −1.3 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 14% | −2.5 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 19% | +0.6 |
| Tre Harris | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 19% | −0.5 |
| Theo Wease Jr. | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 5% | +3.0 |
| Hayden Rucci | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 5% | +1.7 |
| Omarion Hampton | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 5% | +0.2 |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.9 |
| Kimani Vidal | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 10% | −1.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akheem Mesidor | 4 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Molden | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daiyan Henley | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Deane Leonard | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tarheeb Still | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tony Jefferson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tuli Tuipulotu | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cam Hart | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Justin Eboigbe | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamaree Caldwell | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
