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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:40 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 11, 2026 · Acrisure Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 5
It turned at Q1 8:57, 1st and 10, on Jaylen Warren — 14.4 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Pittsburgh Steelers 34–22. Biggest swing: Q1 8:57, Steelers +14.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 8:57 · 1st and 10
Jaylen Warren
Steelers
(8:57) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Warren for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-G.Stewart].
14.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.43 expected points per carry, against Colts at +0.02 expected points per carry.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Steelers won this one — +0.24 expected points per snap, against Colts at +0.00 expected points per snap.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Steelers at 5 chunk plays.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Steelers won this one — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Colts at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
(8:57) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Warren for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-G.Stewart].
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jaylen Warren's 80-yard touchdown catch with 8:57 left in the 1st put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Jaylen Warren80-yd TD catch80-yard touchdown catchfrom Aaron RodgersLead never changed again+73–712 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Coltscategory by categorySteelers
Steelers ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 69 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Steelers’s 52 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Colts 3, Steelers 4.
Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs 0.00.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PIT's sack or hit rate, 6.7%, is past their previous low of 13.5% in week 4 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
PIT's play-action rate, 9.1%, is past their previous low of 13.0% in week 4 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
IND's pass rate over expected, +2.1 pts, is past their previous high of +0.8 pts in week 3 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
69 snaps this game, floor 20 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.6 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
PIT's early-down pass rate turned over: 66.7% in week 4 against 61.5% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 early downs this game, floor 15 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 2.1 points. · −0.8σ from their own normal
IND's sack or hit rate turned over: 24.4% in week 4 against 6.1% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points. · −0.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Colts2.1 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +5.1 vs their -3.0 pts, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (+1.12× that swing) · 69 snaps
Steelers5.1 ptsright on their number · +0.8 vs their 4.3 pts, and they swing ±4.4 week to week (+0.19× that swing) · 52 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 40% to 72%
Tendencies room →Colts61.2%inside their normal wobble · +5.3 vs their 55.9%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.86× that swing) · 49 early downs
Steelers61.5%inside their normal wobble · −1.7 vs their 63.2%, and they swing ±2.1 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 39 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 57%
Tendencies room →Colts26.7%right on their number · −2.9 vs their 29.5%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−0.26× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Steelers9.1%leaned — dropped back clean · −8.1 vs their 17.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−1.21× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 90%
Fourth Down room →Colts50.0%right on their number · +6.0 vs their 44.0%, and they swing ±17.9 week to week (+0.34× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
Steelers50.0%leaned — went for it · +14.6 vs their 35.4%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (+1.39× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 55%
Tendencies room →Colts18.2%right on their number · −3.6 vs their 21.8%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.40× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Steelers22.2%right on their number · −4.1 vs their 26.3%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (−0.37× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 33%
Tendencies room →Colts6.1%inside their normal wobble · −6.0 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Steelers6.7%leaned — stayed blocked · −9.0 vs their 15.7%, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (−1.67× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
PIT's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 6.7%, 9.0 points below their season mean of 15.7% and 1.7 times their own 5.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Indianapolis Colts
49 dressed · 4 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 4
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Pittsburgh Steelers
49 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · IND
24/44, 267 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-0.1 expected points added · -4.4% completion over expected
Passing · PIT
22/31, 235 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
4.3 expected points added · +2.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jaylen Warren banked 21.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen WarrenRB · Bell Cow Back | 36.8 | +21.8 | 87% | — | 20% | 0% | 15 car, 101 yd, 1 TD · 6/6, 87 yd, 1 TD |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 22.0 | +8.3 | 97% | — | 0% | — | 22/31, 235 yd, 3 TD · 1 car, 6 yd |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Featured Receiver | 21.5 | +4.2 | 68% | — | 23% | 49% | 1 car, 1 yd · 5/7, 44 yd, 2 TD |
| Tyler WarrenTE · Featured Receiver | 21.4 | +1.2 | 94% | — | 21% | 18% | 1 car, 1 yd, 1 TD · 7/9, 83 yd |
| Germie BernardWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.4 | −0.5 | 92% | — | 30% | 36% | 1 car, 4 yd · 6/9, 80 yd |
| Jonathan TaylorRB · Bell Cow Back | 11.2 | −10.6 | 73% | — | 9% | 0% | 15 car, 45 yd · 3/4, 37 yd |
| Daniel JonesQB · Starter QB | 11.1 | −13.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/44, 267 yd · 3 car, 4 yd |
| Keenan AllenWR · Featured Receiver | 9.5 | −5.1 | 45% | — | 21% | 13% | 5/9, 45 yd |
| Josh DownsWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.7 | −1.4 | 85% | — | 14% | 20% | 3/6, 47 yd |
| Laquon TreadwellWR · Featured Receiver | 5.4 | −9.5 | 80% | — | 19% | 26% | 2/8, 34 yd |
| DK MetcalfWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.3 | −1.4 | 92% | — | 13% | 10% | 1 car, 11 yd · 3/4, 12 yd |
| Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | +0.6 | 42% | — | 5% | 1% | 2/2, 14 yd |
| Darnell WashingtonTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | −1.4 | 63% | — | 10% | 11% | 2/3, 12 yd |
| Seth McGowanRB | 2.9 | −0.7 | 27% | — | 2% | 0% | 5 car, 16 yd · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Andrew OgletreeTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −0.1 | 27% | — | 2% | 0% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Lew Nichols IIIRB | 0.6 | +0.2 | 13% | — | 0% | — | 1 car, 6 yd |
| Anthony GouldWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Deion BurksWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.4 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.1 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Roman WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 33% | — | 3% | 9% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Kaden WetjenWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Riley NowakowskiRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Mason RudolphQB | -0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(8:57) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Warren for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-G.Stewart].
Q1 8:57 · Steelers · 1st & 10 at PIT 20 · gained 80 · +5.70 EP · +20.2% win probability
164 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 176 plays across 20 drives, manual charting on 171. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
12 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 80 yards from the PIT 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Colts3
Steelers0How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, seven in the box.
Colts3Steelers6Colts3Steelers7Colts6Steelers7Colts6Steelers13Colts6Steelers14How the play was built
Under center, two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Eight in the box.
Colts12Steelers14Colts13Steelers14Colts13Steelers17How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, eight in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Colts16Steelers17How the play was built
Under center, nobody in motion.
Seven in the box.
Colts16Steelers23Colts16Steelers24Colts19Steelers24Colts22Steelers24Colts22Steelers30Colts22Steelers31Colts22Steelers34Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Colts at Steelers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 24/44 | 267 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −0.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 15 | 45 | 3.0 | 0 | −2.8 |
| Seth McGowan | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Daniel Jones |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Warren | 7 | 9 | 83 | 0 | 21% | +4.5 |
| Josh Downs | 3 | 6 | 47 | 0 | 14% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akeem Davis-Gaither | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Walley | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Haulcy |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 22/31 | 235 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +4.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_05_IND_PIT
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Steelers closed -3 and covered, winning by 12.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 56 — over by 14.5.
Conditions and crew
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 1.3 |
| 0 |
| +1.2 |
| Tyler Warren | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | +2.8 |
| −1.9 |
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 9 | 45 | 0 | 21% | +0.4 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 9% | +1.7 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 2 | 8 | 34 | 0 | 19% | −1.3 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 5% | +1.2 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2% | −0.0 |
| Seth McGowan | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2% | −0.5 |
| Deion Burks | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.8 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.5 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| DeForest Buckner | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Ajiake | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grover Stewart | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charvarius Ward | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| CJ Allen | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Camryn Bynum | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sauce Gardner | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 15 | 101 | 6.7 | 1 | +5.1 |
| DK Metcalf | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Lew Nichols III | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Germie Bernard | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | +2.2 |
| Mason Rudolph | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 6 | 6 | 87 | 1 | 20% | +3.1 |
| Germie Bernard | 6 | 9 | 80 | 0 | 30% | +1.9 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 5 | 7 | 44 | 2 | 23% | +3.6 |
| DK Metcalf | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 13% | −0.7 |
| Darnell Washington | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 10% | −0.3 |
| Roman Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Ramsey | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Payton Wilson | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaquan Brisker | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Daylen Everette | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Asante Samuel Jr. | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Jack Sawyer | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sebastian Joseph-Day | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keeanu Benton | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cameron Heyward | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandin Echols | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
