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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 11, 2026 · Caesars Superdome
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 5
It turned at Q3 2:49, 3rd and 15, on Myles Price — 31.7 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Minnesota Vikings 23–13. Biggest swing: Q3 2:49, Saints +31.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 2:49 · 3rd and 15
Myles Price
Saints
(2:49) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 4-M.Price to NO 12 for 7 yards (22-M.Emerson; 20-P.Werner). FUMBLES (22-M.Emerson), RECOVERED by NO-7-J.Sanker at NO 13. 7-J.Sanker for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
31.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Vikings won this one — 10 of 16 on third down, against Saints at 2 of 10 on third down.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Vikings won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Saints at 0 chunk plays.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Vikings at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.08 expected points per dropback, against Saints at -0.46 expected points per dropback.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
(2:49) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 4-M.Price to NO 12 for 7 yards (22-M.Emerson; 20-P.Werner). FUMBLES (22-M.Emerson), RECOVERED by NO-7-J.Sanker at NO 13. 7-J.Sanker for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Aaron Jones's 8-yard rushing touchdown with 14:12 left in the 4th put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Jonas Sanker87-yd defense TD87-yard touchdownthe defense scored it · kick no good, wide left+613–137 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Vikingscategory by categorySaints
Vikings ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.46 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 64 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Saints’s 43 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 4, Saints 1.
Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.35.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NO's play-action rate, 3.8%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 5 — 5.2 points clear of the next team along.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.1 points. · −1.9σ from their own normal
MIN's play-action rate, 39.5%, is past their previous high of 33.3% in week 2 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 5 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
NO's pass rate over expected, −11.6 pts, is past their previous low of +0.1 pts in week 2 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
43 snaps this game, floor 20 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
MIN's blitz rate sent, 57.7%, is past their previous low of 63.0% in week 3 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 5 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
MIN's sack or hit rate, 15.4%, is past their previous low of 20.0% in week 4 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 5 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 13 pts
Over Expected room →Vikings0.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.0 vs their -4.0 pts, and they swing ±4.1 week to week (+0.97× that swing) · 64 snaps
Saints-11.6 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −8.9 vs their -2.7 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−1.44× that swing) · 43 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 25% to 90%
Tendencies room →Vikings50.0%inside their normal wobble · +4.2 vs their 45.8%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.56× that swing) · 48 early downs
Saints50.0%inside their normal wobble · −7.3 vs their 57.3%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 30 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 48%
Tendencies room →Vikings39.5%leaned — faked the run · +9.2 vs their 30.3%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+1.45× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Saints3.8%leaned — dropped back clean · −11.7 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−1.90× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 94%
Fourth Down room →Vikings—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Saints66.7%leaned — went for it · +24.2 vs their 42.5%, and they swing ±20.3 week to week (+1.19× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 96%
Tendencies room →Vikings57.7%leaned — sat back · −11.7 vs their 69.4%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−1.27× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Saints36.8%right on their number · +0.5 vs their 36.4%, and they swing ±13.8 week to week (+0.04× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 40%
Tendencies room →Vikings15.4%leaned — stayed blocked · −7.4 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−1.17× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Saints7.9%inside their normal wobble · −4.6 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NO's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 3.8%, 11.7 points below their season mean of 15.5% and 1.9 times their own 6.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
New Orleans Saints
49 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIN
24/30, 229 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
8.9 expected points added · +11.8% completion over expected
Passing · NO
16/25, 96 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-11.9 expected points added · -8.0% completion over expected
Receiving · MIN
6/7 for 79 yds, 1 TD
24% of team targets · 5.5 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Justin Jefferson banked 5.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin JeffersonWR · Featured Receiver | 18.8 | +5.4 | 89% | — | 24% | 44% | 1 car, -11 yd · 6/7, 79 yd, 1 TD |
| Aaron JonesRB · Bell Cow Back | 18.7 | +1.5 | 87% | — | 10% | 0% | 25 car, 113 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 4 yd |
| Kyler MurrayQB · Starter QB | 18.3 | −0.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/30, 229 yd, 1 TD · 10 car, 51 yd |
| Kendre MillerRB · Committee Back | 9.0 | −1.2 | 31% | — | 0% | — | 10 car, 30 yd, 1 TD |
| Chris OlaveWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.6 | −1.4 | 91% | — | 25% | 55% | 4/6, 46 yd |
| Gavin BartholomewTE · Featured Receiver | 8.3 | −2.1 | 62% | — | 21% | 12% | 5/6, 33 yd |
| Devaughn VeleWR · Alpha Receiver | 6.6 | −1.8 | 96% | — | 25% | 27% | 4/6, 26 yd |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Featured Receiver | 5.6 | −0.7 | 64% | — | 21% | 2% | 4/5, 16 yd |
| Tai FeltonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | −1.0 | 66% | — | 10% | 18% | 2/3, 27 yd |
| Jeshaun JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | +2.2 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Myles PriceWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | −2.6 | 20% | — | 14% | 0% | 3/4, 20 yd |
| CJ DonaldsonRB | 3.0 | −0.4 | 42% | — | 4% | 3% | 4 car, 13 yd · 1/1, 7 yd |
| Alvin KamaraRB | 2.6 | −1.0 | 27% | — | 8% | 0% | 3 car, 12 yd · 2/2, -6 yd |
| DeeJay DallasRB | 2.1 | +0.5 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ben YurosekTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | +0.5 | 55% | — | 3% | 3% | 1/1, 10 yd |
| T.J. HockensonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.4 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Noah FantTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.2 | 67% | — | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Demond ClaiborneRB | 1.6 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.1 | 69% | — | 3% | 11% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Oscar DelpTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 38% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Bryce LanceWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.8 | 42% | — | 13% | 18% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Barion BrownWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Tyler ShoughQB · Starter QB | -0.2 | −6.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/25, 96 yd, 2 INT |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:49) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 4-M.Price to NO 12 for 7 yards (22-M.Emerson; 20-P.Werner). FUMBLES (22-M.Emerson), RECOVERED by NO-7-J.Sanker at NO 13. 7-J.Sanker for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 2:49 · Vikings · 3rd & 15 at NO 19 · gained 6 · -10.06 EP · −36.9% win probability
143 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 155 plays across 19 drives, manual charting on 150. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 70 yards from the MIN 30 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
155 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
155 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Vikings3
Saints0How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Six in the box.
Vikings3Saints6Vikings3Saints7Vikings6Saints7How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Vikings12Saints7Vikings13Saints7How the play was built
Shotgun, a screen, a run-pass option, play action, nobody in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, five in the box.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Vikings13Saints13How the play was built
Under center, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
How the play was built
Under center, two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Seven in the box.
Vikings19Saints13Vikings20Saints13Vikings23Saints13Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Vikings at Saints, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 24/30 | 229 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +8.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 25 | 113 | 4.5 | 1 | −7.8 |
| Kyler Murray | 10 | 51 | 5.1 | 0 | +2.2 |
| Justin Jefferson |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 6 | 7 | 79 | 1 | 24% | +5.5 |
| Gavin Bartholomew | 5 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Cashman | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Metellus | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Theo Jackson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | 16/25 | 96 | 0 | 2 | 1 | −11.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_05_MIN_NO
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Vikings closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 36 — under by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| -11 |
| -11.0 |
| 0 |
| −1.7 |
| 21% |
| +1.6 |
| Jeshaun Jones | 1 | 1 | 32 | 0 | 3% | +2.1 |
| Tai Felton | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 10% | +0.8 |
| Myles Price | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 14% | −9.9 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | +2.7 |
| Ben Yurosek | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3% | +1.3 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | +0.6 |
| Demond Claiborne | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 10% | −1.7 |
| Jauan Jennings | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jalen Redmond | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Levi Drake Rodriguez | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Murphy | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Andrew Van Ginkel | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Pierre | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Caleb Banks | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kendre Miller | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 1 | −0.3 |
| CJ Donaldson | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 | −2.4 |
| Alvin Kamara | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 | 25% | +3.0 |
| Devaughn Vele | 4 | 6 | 26 | 0 | 25% | +0.3 |
| Juwan Johnson | 4 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 21% | −2.7 |
| CJ Donaldson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | +0.1 |
| Noah Fant | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | +0.1 |
| Bryce Lance | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13% | −7.0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 2 | 2 | -6 | 0 | 8% | −2.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Werner | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Reid | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Stutsman | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonas Sanker | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Colby Wooden | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carl Granderson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Blackmon | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kool-Aid McKinstry | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quincy Riley | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Jordan | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
