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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:40 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 11, 2026 · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 5
It turned at Q4 0:01, 1st and 10, on Cam Little — 44.7 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Jacksonville Jaguars 19–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:01, Jaguars +44.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:01 · 1st and 10
Cam Little
Jaguars
(:01) 39-C.Little 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-52-D.Hamilton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
44.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Jaguars won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Eagles at 1 chunk play.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Jaguars at 0 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Jaguars won this one — -0.29 expected points per carry, against Eagles at -0.61 expected points per carry.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Jaguars won this one — +0.06 expected points per snap, against Eagles at -0.20 expected points per snap.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 11.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
(:01) 39-C.Little 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-52-D.Hamilton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Cam Little's 57-yard field goal with 0:01 left in the 4th put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Parker Washington27-yd TD catch27-yard touchdown catchfrom Trevor Lawrence · kick no good, wide left+614–16Cam Little57-yd field goal57-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap D.HamiltonLead never changed again+317–197 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Eaglescategory by categoryJaguars
Jaguars ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Eagles, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.61 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 59 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 68 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 2, Jaguars 5.
Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PHI's sack or hit rate, 15.9%, is past their previous high of 12.5% in week 2 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 3.7 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
PHI's blitz rate sent turned over: 9.3% in week 4 against 34.1% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.9 points. · +0.9σ from their own normal
JAX's blitz rate sent turned over: 17.2% in week 4 against 40.5% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.3 points. · +0.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Eagles4.5 ptsinside their normal wobble · +6.1 vs their -1.6 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.78× that swing) · 59 snaps
Jaguars-4.5 ptsright on their number · −0.8 vs their -3.7 pts, and they swing ±3.3 week to week (−0.24× that swing) · 68 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 30% to 86%
Tendencies room →Eagles66.7%inside their normal wobble · +8.6 vs their 58.1%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (+0.79× that swing) · 42 early downs
Jaguars56.3%inside their normal wobble · +3.3 vs their 53.0%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.54× that swing) · 48 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 50%
Tendencies room →Eagles21.4%inside their normal wobble · +3.2 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±3.5 week to week (+0.92× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Jaguars18.2%inside their normal wobble · −6.1 vs their 24.3%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 7% to 71%
Fourth Down room →Eagles66.7%no read · no ruler yet — only 3 games of theirs this season
Jaguars66.7%no read · no ruler yet — only 2 games of theirs this season
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 62%
Tendencies room →Eagles34.1%inside their normal wobble · +8.5 vs their 25.6%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (+0.86× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Jaguars40.5%inside their normal wobble · +7.9 vs their 32.5%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (+0.70× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 37%
Tendencies room →Eagles15.9%leaned — got home · +5.8 vs their 10.1%, and they swing ±3.7 week to week (+1.57× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Jaguars11.9%right on their number · −3.1 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
PHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 15.9%, 5.8 points above their season mean of 10.1% and 1.6 times their own 3.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · JAX
24/39, 331 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
10.2 expected points added · -3.3% completion over expected
Passing · PHI
21/40, 220 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-0.6 expected points added · -11.1% completion over expected
Receiving · JAX
6/9 for 124 yds, 2 TD
24% of team targets · 10.0 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Parker Washington banked 16.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker WashingtonWR · Featured Receiver | 30.4 | +16.7 | 82% | — | 24% | 33% | 6/9, 124 yd, 2 TD |
| Trevor LawrenceQB · Starter QB | 21.7 | −0.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/39, 331 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 25 yd |
| Darius CooperWR · Rotational Receiver | 15.1 | +10.7 | 85% | — | 8% | 17% | 2/3, 71 yd, 1 TD |
| Brenton StrangeTE · Featured Receiver | 13.8 | +0.9 | 81% | — | 21% | 24% | 7/8, 68 yd |
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 13.0 | +1.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/40, 220 yd, 1 TD · 2 car, 2 yd |
| Bhayshul TutenRB · Bell Cow Back | 11.6 | −6.8 | 68% | — | 8% | 0% | 22 car, 72 yd · 2/3, 24 yd |
| Dontayvion WicksWR · Featured Receiver | 11.3 | −0.6 | 84% | — | 22% | 47% | 5/8, 63 yd |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Featured Receiver | 9.8 | −3.0 | 69% | — | 24% | 16% | 6/9, 38 yd |
| Makai LemonWR · Featured Receiver | 9.3 | 0.0 | 81% | — | 19% | 10% | 5/7, 43 yd |
| Will ShipleyRB | 8.3 | +0.3 | 21% | — | 5% | 1% | 5 car, 6 yd, 1 TD · 1/2, 7 yd |
| Josh CameronWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.3 | −2.8 | 31% | — | 16% | 6% | 3/6, 43 yd |
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.7 | −0.1 | 85% | — | 8% | 13% | 2/3, 37 yd |
| Nate BoerkircherTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | +1.0 | 49% | — | 5% | 6% | 2/2, 20 yd |
| Dameon PierceRB · Bell Cow Back | 3.2 | −8.7 | 77% | — | 14% | 0% | 11 car, 14 yd · 2/5, -2 yd |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB | 2.1 | −3.3 | 12% | — | 3% | 1% | 2 car, 5 yd · 1/1, 6 yd |
| Travis HunterWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.4 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Brian Thomas Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −7.2 | 51% | — | 8% | 16% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| LeQuint Allen Jr.RB | 0.0 | −2.5 | 18% | — | 5% | 2% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Ameer AbdullahRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Quintin MorrisTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Johnny MundtTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.2 | 32% | — | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Britain CoveyWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Carson SteeleRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Zach ErtzTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.7 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:01) 39-C.Little 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-52-D.Hamilton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Q4 0:01 · Jaguars · 1st & 10 at PHI 39 · gained nothing · +1.55 EP · +50.4% win probability
171 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 188 plays across 23 drives, manual charting on 183. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 76 yards from the JAX 8 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
188 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
188 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Seven in the box.
How the play was built
Under center, play action, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
Eagles0
Jaguars6Eagles0Jaguars7Eagles6Jaguars7Eagles7Jaguars7How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Eagles13Jaguars7Eagles14Jaguars7Eagles14Jaguars10How the play was built
Shotgun, two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Eagles14Jaguars16How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, five in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Seven in the box.
Eagles17Jaguars16Eagles17Jaguars19Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Eagles at Jaguars, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 21/40 | 220 | 1 | 0 | 1 | −0.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dameon Pierce | 11 | 14 | 1.3 | 0 | −6.5 |
| Will Shipley | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 1 | −2.7 |
| Jalen Hurts |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Cooper | 2 | 3 | 71 | 1 | 8% | +6.4 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 5 | 8 | 63 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Baun | 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cooper DeJean | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Carter II |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 24/39 | 331 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +10.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_05_PHI_JAX
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Jaguars closed -7.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 36 — under by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| −2.1 |
| 22% |
| +3.7 |
| Makai Lemon | 5 | 7 | 43 | 0 | 19% | +0.1 |
| Dallas Goedert | 6 | 9 | 38 | 0 | 24% | −0.4 |
| Will Shipley | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 5% | −0.5 |
| Zach Ertz | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −2.2 |
| Johnny Mundt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Dameon Pierce | 2 | 5 | -2 | 0 | 14% | −4.5 |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Riq Woolen | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jalen Carter | 3 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Quinyon Mitchell | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jihaad Campbell | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore II | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arnold Ebiketie | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalyx Hunt | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 22 | 72 | 3.3 | 0 | −5.4 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Washington | 6 | 9 | 124 | 2 | 24% | +10.0 |
| Brenton Strange | 7 | 8 | 68 | 0 | 21% | +4.9 |
| Josh Cameron | 3 | 6 | 43 | 0 | 16% | +1.1 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 8% | −0.5 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 8% | +1.2 |
| Nate Boerkircher | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 5% | +1.3 |
| Travis Hunter | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +1.1 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.0 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −2.4 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −2.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foyesade Oluokun | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Hunter | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Antonio Johnson | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Hines-Allen | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rayuan Lane III | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jourdan Lewis | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ventrell Miller | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jarrian Jones | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Travon Walker | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Dennis Gardeck | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
