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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:40 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 11, 2026 · Lumen Field
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 5
It turned at Q3 7:24, 3rd and 7, on Nehemiah Pritchett — 20.1 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
San Francisco 49ers 32–29 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 7:24, Seahawks +20.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 7:24 · 3rd and 7
Nehemiah Pritchett
Seahawks
(7:24) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left intended for 4-J.Cowing INTERCEPTED by 28-N.Pritchett at SF 43. 28-N.Pritchett pushed ob at SF 23 for 20 yards (75-C.Colby).
20.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
49ers won this one — 2 giveaways, against Seahawks at 5 giveaways.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
49ers won this one — -0.15 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.60 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
49ers won this one — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Seahawks at 30% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — -0.12 expected points per snap, against Seahawks at -0.43 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
(7:24) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left intended for 4-J.Cowing INTERCEPTED by 28-N.Pritchett at SF 43. 28-N.Pritchett pushed ob at SF 23 for 20 yards (75-C.Colby).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Eddy Pineiro's 44-yard field goal with 2:00 left in the 4th put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Eddy Pineiro44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap J.WeeksLead never changed again+332–2912 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
49erscategory by categorySeahawks
49ers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.60 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 55 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 60 at 58%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 3, Seahawks 3.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.43.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
SF's sack or hit rate turned over: 4.5% in week 4 against 22.9% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points. · +0.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →49ers2.3 ptsright on their number · −0.6 vs their 2.9 pts, and they swing ±2.2 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 54 snaps
Seahawks-5.5 ptsright on their number · −1.2 vs their -4.3 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 60 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 16% to 85%
Tendencies room →49ers57.1%leaned — passed early · +4.2 vs their 53.0%, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (+1.03× that swing) · 42 early downs
Seahawks48.9%right on their number · −1.7 vs their 50.6%, and they swing ±13.5 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 47 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16% to 63%
Tendencies room →49ers28.6%right on their number · +5.1 vs their 23.5%, and they swing ±15.4 week to week (+0.33× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Seahawks25.7%right on their number · −3.8 vs their 29.5%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -72% to 149%
Fourth Down room →49ers0.0%inside their normal wobble · −25.0 vs their 25.0%, and they swing ±28.9 week to week (−0.87× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Seahawks0.0%inside their normal wobble · −38.3 vs their 38.3%, and they swing ±43.3 week to week (−0.88× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 61%
Tendencies room →49ers28.6%right on their number · −3.2 vs their 31.8%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Seahawks20.0%right on their number · −1.3 vs their 21.3%, and they swing ±4.3 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 39%
Tendencies room →49ers22.9%inside their normal wobble · +5.8 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Seahawks25.7%inside their normal wobble · +4.2 vs their 21.6%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+0.85× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
SF's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 57.1%, 4.2 points above their season mean of 53.0% and 1.0 times their own 4.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · SEA
18/29, 195 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-12.0 expected points added · +0.1% completion over expected
Passing · SF
19/29, 189 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-2.0 expected points added · +5.4% completion over expected
Receiving · SEA
5/8 for 102 yds, 1 TD
30% of team targets · 2.2 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba banked 9.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike EvansWR · Alpha Receiver | 26.3 | +5.6 | 63% | — | 37% | 71% | 7/10, 113 yd, 1 TD |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Alpha Receiver | 22.8 | +9.9 | 84% | — | 30% | 53% | 1 car, 16 yd · 5/8, 102 yd, 1 TD |
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Committee Back | 17.3 | +7.8 | 82% | — | 11% | 0% | 11 car, 68 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 15 yd |
| Brock PurdyQB · Starter QB | 16.2 | −1.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/29, 189 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 5 car, 6 yd |
| Emanuel WilsonRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.2 | −2.2 | 59% | — | 7% | 0% | 20 car, 61 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 11 yd |
| Sam DarnoldQB · Starter QB | 8.3 | −2.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/29, 195 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 1 car, 5 yd |
| Brandin CooksWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.7 | +2.4 | 40% | — | 7% | 10% | 1/2, 7 yd, 1 TD |
| George KittleTE · Featured Receiver | 7.4 | −3.9 | 92% | — | 22% | 13% | 5/6, 24 yd |
| George HolaniRB · Receiving Back | 5.1 | −2.9 | 41% | — | 15% | 1% | 4 car, 7 yd · 4/4, 24 yd |
| AJ BarnerTE · Featured Receiver | 5.0 | −0.9 | 95% | — | 19% | 4% | 3/5, 20 yd |
| Rashid ShaheedWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.3 | −3.9 | 46% | — | 15% | 22% | 2/4, 23 yd |
| Cooper KuppWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | −2.1 | 81% | — | 11% | 12% | 2/3, 15 yd |
| Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | −3.0 | 43% | — | 11% | 0% | 2 car, 4 yd · 2/3, 21 yd |
| Jacob CowingWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −1.0 | 43% | — | 7% | 5% | 1/2, 9 yd |
| Kaelon BlackRB | 1.6 | −0.8 | 18% | — | 0% | — | 6 car, 16 yd |
| Brady RussellRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Velus Jones Jr.RB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Elijah ArroyoTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.0 | 32% | — | 4% | 10% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Eric SaubertTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 35% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Jordan JamesRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Luke FarrellTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.9 | 60% | — | 4% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Brayden WillisTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 22% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:18) 36-G.Holani left guard to SEA 0 for -4 yards (93-G.Halton). FUMBLES (93-G.Halton), touched at SEA 0, RECOVERED by SF-93-G.Halton at SEA -4. TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 0:18 · Seahawks · 1st & 10 at SEA 4 · lost 4 · -6.94 EP · −30.1% win probability
158 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 169 plays across 28 drives, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 84 yards from the SF 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
49ers6
Seahawks049ers7Seahawks049ers7Seahawks649ers7Seahawks749ers7Seahawks10How the play was built
Under center, nobody in motion.
Seven in the box.
49ers13Seahawks1049ers14Seahawks1049ers14Seahawks13How the play was built
Under center, three in the backfield, a man in motion.
Seven in the box.
49ers20Seahawks1349ers21Seahawks1349ers21Seahawks16How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Six rushed the passer, two of them blitzing, seven in the box.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, seven in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
49ers21Seahawks2249ers21Seahawks23How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Six in the box.
49ers21Seahawks26How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, five in the box.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Under center, play action, nobody in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, seven in the box.
From outside the pocket, thrown away, the sack was on the quarterback.
How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Three rushed the passer, five in the box.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
49ers27Seahawks2649ers29Seahawks2649ers29Seahawks2949ers32Seahawks29How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: 49ers at Seahawks, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 19/29 | 189 | 2 | 1 | 3 | −2.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 11 | 68 | 6.2 | 1 | +4.0 |
| Kaelon Black | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Brock Purdy |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 7 | 10 | 113 | 1 | 37% | +10.4 |
| George Kittle | 5 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 22% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Warner | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaden Dugger | 7 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ji'Ayir Brown |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 18/29 | 195 | 1 | 2 | 5 | −12.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_05_SF_SEA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Seahawks closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 61 — over by 14.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 5 |
| 6 |
| 1.2 |
| 0 |
| −1.0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | −5.6 |
| −2.4 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 11% | +0.7 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 11% | +0.2 |
| Jacob Cowing | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 7% | −3.4 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 7% | +1.3 |
| Luke Farrell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.7 |
| 6 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Malik Mustapha | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Keion White | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sebastian Valdez | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gracen Halton | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dre Greenlaw | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deommodore Lenoir | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Osa Odighizuwa | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 20 | 61 | 3.0 | 1 | −8.3 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 | +1.1 |
| George Holani | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 | −7.8 |
| Sam Darnold | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +1.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 5 | 8 | 102 | 1 | 30% | +2.2 |
| George Holani | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 15% | −0.9 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 15% | −0.9 |
| AJ Barner | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 19% | +0.1 |
| Cooper Kupp | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 11% | +0.9 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 7% | +0.6 |
| Elijah Arroyo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −5.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernest Jones | 5 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Julian Love | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Drake Thomas | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Murphy II | 4 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Jobe | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ty Okada | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devon Witherspoon | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nick Emmanwori | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Uchenna Nwosu | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Avery Smith | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
