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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 5 · Thu, Oct 8, 2026 · AT&T Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 5
It turned at Q4 1:22, 2nd and 1, on Alex Anzalone — 24.4 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24–16. Biggest swing: Q4 1:22, Buccaneers +24.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:22 · 2nd and 1
Alex Anzalone
Buccaneers
(1:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle intended for 87-J.Ferguson INTERCEPTED by 34-A.Anzalone at TB 12. 34-A.Anzalone to TB 12 for no gain.
24.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Buccaneers won this one — no giveaways, against Cowboys at 3 giveaways.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Buccaneers won this one — +0.16 expected points per snap, against Cowboys at -0.05 expected points per snap.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.22 expected points per dropback, against Cowboys at -0.08 expected points per dropback.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Buccaneers won this one — 7 of 13 on third down, against Cowboys at 4 of 10 on third down.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 13.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
(1:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle intended for 87-J.Ferguson INTERCEPTED by 34-A.Anzalone at TB 12. 34-A.Anzalone to TB 12 for no gain.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Emeka Egbuka's 14-yard rushing touchdown with 14:04 left in the 3rd put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
George Pickens18-yd TD catch18-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescott · two-point no good+624–167 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Buccaneerscategory by categoryCowboys
Buccaneers ahead 8–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Cowboys, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 63 snaps at a 49% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 56 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 4, Cowboys 2.
Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TB's early-down pass rate, 40.8%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 5 — 0.5 points clear of the next team along.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.1 points. · −1.8σ from their own normal
DAL's sack or hit rate, 3.2%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 5 — 0.2 points clear of the next team along.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
DAL's early-down pass rate, 75.0%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 5 — 4.7 points clear of the next team along.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.9 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
DAL's blitz rate sent, 29.0%, is past their previous high of 27.3% in week 1 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 1.3 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -12 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Buccaneers-5.8 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −3.8 vs their -2.0 pts, and they swing ±3.5 week to week (−1.08× that swing) · 63 snaps
Cowboys3.8 ptsright on their number · −0.6 vs their 4.3 pts, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 55 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 33% to 88%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers40.8%leaned — ran early · −15.9 vs their 56.7%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (−1.75× that swing) · 49 early downs
Cowboys75.0%leaned — passed early · +8.3 vs their 66.7%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+1.05× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 55%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers32.3%inside their normal wobble · +9.6 vs their 22.6%, and they swing ±12.6 week to week (+0.77× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Cowboys16.3%inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 21.0%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -60% to 101%
Fourth Down room →Buccaneers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 20.8%.
Cowboys—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 64%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers39.5%right on their number · −2.3 vs their 41.8%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.27× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Cowboys29.0%leaned — sent pressure · +1.3 vs their 27.8%, and they swing ±1.3 week to week (+1.00× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 28%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers9.3%inside their normal wobble · −3.1 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−0.68× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Cowboys3.2%leaned — stayed blocked · −8.5 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−1.36× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
TB's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 40.8%, 15.9 points below their season mean of 56.7% and 1.8 times their own 9.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · DAL
24/42, 316 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-3.3 expected points added · -10.0% completion over expected
Passing · TB
19/25, 189 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
5.9 expected points added · +2.8% completion over expected
Receiving · DAL
9/13 for 130 yds, 1 TD
31% of team targets · 6.4 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Bucky Irving banked 10.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky IrvingRB · Committee Back | 31.5 | +10.7 | 54% | — | 12% | 1% | 21 car, 165 yd, 1 TD · 2/3, 10 yd, 1 TD |
| George PickensWR · Alpha Receiver | 28.0 | +1.8 | 88% | — | 31% | 36% | 9/13, 130 yd, 1 TD |
| Emeka EgbukaWR · Alpha Receiver | 17.2 | −1.7 | 89% | — | 36% | 65% | 1 car, 14 yd, 1 TD · 6/9, 38 yd |
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Bell Cow Back | 14.2 | +0.1 | 85% | — | 7% | 1% | 12 car, 45 yd, 1 TD · 2/3, 17 yd |
| Jalon DanielsQB · Starter QB | 13.9 | −2.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/25, 189 yd, 1 TD · 7 car, 23 yd |
| Dak PrescottQB · Starter QB | 12.6 | −8.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/42, 316 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT |
| Ryan FlournoyWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.0 | +4.4 | 68% | — | 10% | 14% | 3/4, 90 yd |
| Tez JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.4 | +5.5 | 39% | — | 4% | 30% | 1/1, 64 yd |
| Chris Godwin Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 7.0 | +2.2 | 88% | — | 12% | 5% | 1 car, 3 yd · 3/3, 37 yd |
| Kenny GainwellRB · Receiving Back | 5.8 | −2.3 | 36% | — | 16% | 0% | 4 car, 18 yd · 3/4, 10 yd |
| Cade OttonTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.5 | −1.1 | 92% | — | 16% | 22% | 3/4, 25 yd |
| Jake FergusonTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | −4.6 | 83% | — | 14% | 8% | 3/6, 19 yd |
| KaVontae TurpinWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | −1.7 | 40% | — | 10% | 8% | 2/4, 22 yd |
| Jonathan MingoWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −4.6 | 20% | — | 10% | 18% | 2/4, 20 yd |
| CeeDee LambWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −5.1 | 57% | — | 12% | 16% | 2/5, 9 yd |
| Luke SchoonmakerTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Sean TuckerRB | 1.8 | −2.9 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Payne DurhamTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.1 | 38% | — | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Hunter LuepkeRB | 0.5 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Brevyn Spann-FordTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.9 | 33% | — | 5% | 0% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Kameron JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Bauer SharpTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle intended for 87-J.Ferguson INTERCEPTED by 34-A.Anzalone at TB 12. 34-A.Anzalone to TB 12 for no gain.
Q4 1:22 · Cowboys · 2nd & 1 at TB 24 · gained nothing · -4.38 EP · −16.5% win probability
161 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 172 plays across 20 drives, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 99 yards from the DAL 1 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Buccaneers0
Cowboys6Buccaneers0Cowboys7Buccaneers6Cowboys7Buccaneers7Cowboys7Buccaneers7Cowboys10How the play was built
Under center, a man in motion.
Seven in the box.
Buccaneers13Cowboys10Buccaneers14Cowboys10How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, seven in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Buccaneers20Cowboys10Buccaneers21Cowboys10Buccaneers24Cowboys10Buccaneers24Cowboys16How the play was built
Shotgun, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Buccaneers at Cowboys, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalon Daniels | 19/25 | 189 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +5.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 21 | 165 | 7.9 | 1 | +6.3 |
| Jalon Daniels | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Kenny Gainwell |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tez Johnson | 1 | 1 | 64 | 0 | 4% | +5.4 |
| Emeka Egbuka | 6 | 9 | 38 | 0 | 36% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Parrish | 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Keionte Scott | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Josiah Trotter |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 24/42 | 316 | 1 | 2 | 0 | −3.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_05_TB_DAL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Cowboys closed -9.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 40 — under by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
| 4 |
| 18 |
| 4.5 |
| 0 |
| −0.5 |
| Sean Tucker | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 | −4.2 |
| Emeka Egbuka | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 1 | +2.0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| +0.5 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 12% | +0.9 |
| Cade Otton | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 16% | +2.0 |
| Bucky Irving | 2 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 12% | +1.3 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 16% | −2.5 |
| Payne Durham | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | +0.1 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Alex Anzalone | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Ifeatu Melifonwu | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tykee Smith | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Rozeboom | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Vita Vea | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yaya Diaby | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Bauer Sharp | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 12 | 45 | 3.8 | 1 | −0.1 |
| Hunter Luepke | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 9 | 13 | 130 | 1 | 31% | +6.4 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 3 | 4 | 90 | 0 | 10% | −0.4 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 10% | +0.3 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 10% | +0.7 |
| Jake Ferguson | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 14% | −7.1 |
| Javonte Williams | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 7% | +0.2 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 2% | +0.4 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 12% | −2.8 |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dee Winters | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaishawn Barham | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donovan Ezeiruaku | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashan Gary | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reddy Steward | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Hooker | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DaRon Bland | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Caleb Downs | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ameer Speed | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Otito Ogbonnia | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
