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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 2026 · SoFi Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 6
It turned at Q4 0:03, 4th and 6, on Chad Ryland — 50.5 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Arizona Cardinals 18–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, Cardinals +50.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:03 · 4th and 6
Chad Ryland
Cardinals
(:03) 38-C.Ryland 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
50.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Rams owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Cardinals at 0 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Cardinals won this one — +0.06 expected points per dropback, against Rams at -0.18 expected points per dropback.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cardinals won this one — -0.02 expected points per snap, against Rams at -0.16 expected points per snap.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Rams owned this one and still lost it — 4 of 10 on third down, against Cardinals at 5 of 15 on third down.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 19.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 34 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
(:03) 38-C.Ryland 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
Win probability — this number changed
The win probability on this page changed: it was ESPN's model's and it is now the league play-by-play model's. The two models are fitted differently and do not produce the same number on the same play.
How the points landed
Chad Ryland's 43-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Blake Corum15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Stafford · two-point no good+66–9
Chad Ryland43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap C.KreiterLead never changed again+318–169 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Cardinalscategory by categoryRams
Cardinals ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Rams, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 70 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Rams’s 57 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 5, Rams 4.
Cardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LA's blitz rate sent, 14.3%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 4.1 points clear of the next team along.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 16.6 points. · −1.0σ from their own normal
ARI's blitz rate sent, 40.5%, is past their previous high of 33.3% in week 5 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
ARI's early-down pass rate, 43.6%, is past their previous low of 51.8% in week 1 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
55 early downs this game, floor 15 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
ARI's pass rate over expected, −8.9 pts, is past their previous low of −3.6 pts in week 4 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
70 snaps this game, floor 20 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
ARI's play-action rate turned over: 22.6% in week 5 against 11.4% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.3 points. · −1.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 24 pts
Over Expected room →Cardinals-8.9 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −8.5 vs their -0.4 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−1.47× that swing) · 70 snaps
Rams-5.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.2 vs their 0.1 pts, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (−0.54× that swing) · 56 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 34% to 87%
Tendencies room →Cardinals43.6%leaned — ran early · −12.7 vs their 56.3%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−1.51× that swing) · 55 early downs
Rams65.9%right on their number · +3.9 vs their 62.0%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (+0.41× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 45%
Tendencies room →Cardinals11.4%inside their normal wobble · −4.2 vs their 15.7%, and they swing ±4.3 week to week (−0.99× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Rams24.3%right on their number · −0.5 vs their 24.8%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16% to 99%
Fourth Down room →Cardinals—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Rams33.3%right on their number · −8.3 vs their 41.7%, and they swing ±22.6 week to week (−0.37× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11% to 74%
Tendencies room →Cardinals40.5%leaned — sent pressure · +12.5 vs their 28.1%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+1.56× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Rams14.3%leaned — sat back · −17.1 vs their 31.4%, and they swing ±16.6 week to week (−1.03× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 32%
Tendencies room →Cardinals21.6%leaned — got home · +6.5 vs their 15.1%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+1.32× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Rams14.3%right on their number · +2.0 vs their 12.3%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+0.25× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
ARI's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 40.5%, 12.5 points above their season mean of 28.1% and 1.6 times their own 8.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · LA
25/33, 222 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
-2.6 expected points added · +4.2% completion over expected
Passing · ARI
24/35, 218 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
2.0 expected points added · +0.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Blake Corum banked 5.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew StaffordQB · Starter QB | 16.9 | +2.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/33, 222 yd, 2 TD |
| Colby ParkinsonTE · Featured Receiver | 14.1 | +1.1 | 62% | — | 19% | 15% | 5/6, 31 yd, 1 TD |
| Puka NacuaWR · Featured Receiver | 14.0 | +2.3 | 90% | — | 22% | 39% | 6/7, 80 yd |
| Blake CorumRB · Committee Back | 14.0 | +5.8 | 28% | — | 6% | 0% | 9 car, 42 yd · 2/2, 18 yd, 1 TD |
| Trey McBrideTE · Alpha Receiver | 12.3 | −2.7 | 97% | — | 26% | 15% | 7/9, 53 yd |
| Bam KnightRB · Committee Back | 11.8 | −0.9 | 44% | — | 6% | 3% | 15 car, 80 yd · 2/2, 18 yd |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Featured Receiver | 9.7 | −4.2 | 57% | — | 24% | 17% | 5/8, 47 yd |
| Kyren WilliamsRB · Committee Back | 9.7 | −5.7 | 72% | — | 19% | 2% | 10 car, 50 yd · 3/6, 17 yd |
| Michael WilsonWR · Featured Receiver | 7.2 | −7.6 | 92% | — | 21% | 47% | 4/7, 32 yd |
| Jacoby BrissettQB · Starter QB | 6.9 | −9.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/35, 218 yd, 1 INT · 2 car, 2 yd |
| Davante AdamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.9 | +0.2 | 74% | — | 13% | 35% | 3/4, 39 yd |
| Tyler AllgeierRB · Committee Back | 5.8 | −5.9 | 56% | — | 6% | 0% | 18 car, 38 yd · 1/2, 10 yd |
| Elijah HigginsTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.8 | +1.4 | 44% | — | 9% | 1% | 3/3, 28 yd |
| Jalen BrooksWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.0 | −0.6 | 53% | — | 9% | 18% | 2/3, 30 yd |
| Tyler HigbeeTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | −1.7 | 83% | — | 13% | 11% | 4/4, 22 yd |
| Konata MumpfieldWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | −0.4 | 47% | — | 9% | 1% | 2/3, 15 yd |
| Devin DuvernayWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Simi FehokoWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Davis AllenTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −0.2 | 31% | — | 0% | — | 1 car, 0 yd |
| Alex BachmanWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:03) 38-C.Ryland 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Q4 0:03 · Cardinals · 4th & 6 at LA 25 · gained nothing · +0.61 EP · +39.7% win probability
157 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 173 plays across 21 drives, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 86 yards from the LA 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Cardinals0
Rams3How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
Cardinals3Rams3Cardinals6Rams3Cardinals6Rams9Cardinals9Rams9Cardinals12Rams9How the play was built
Under center, three in the backfield, a man in motion.
Six in the box.
Cardinals15Rams9How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
From outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback.
How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, seven in the box.
Thrown on the second read.
How the play was built
Shotgun, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the second read.
How the play was built
Under center, play action, nobody in motion.
Six rushed the passer, two of them blitzing, nine in the box.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket.
Cardinals15Rams15Cardinals15Rams16How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the second read.
Cardinals18Rams16Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Cardinals at Rams, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 24/35 | 218 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Knight | 15 | 80 | 5.3 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 18 | 38 | 2.1 | 0 | −4.1 |
| Jacoby Brissett |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | 7 | 9 | 53 | 0 | 26% | −3.9 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 5 | 8 | 47 | 0 | 24% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mack Wilson | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Gibbens | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Garrett Williams |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 25/33 | 222 | 2 | 0 | 3 | −2.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_06_ARI_LA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Rams closed -12.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 51.5; the game landed 34 — under by 17.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.7 |
| +1.7 |
| Michael Wilson | 4 | 7 | 32 | 0 | 21% | +0.4 |
| Jalen Brooks | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 9% | +2.2 |
| Elijah Higgins | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 9% | +1.2 |
| Bam Knight | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 6% | +1.3 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 6% | −0.2 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Max Melton | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Budda Baker | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dadrion Taylor-Demerson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Sweat | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Burch | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody Simon | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dante Stills | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 10 | 50 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Blake Corum | 9 | 42 | 4.7 | 0 | +1.8 |
| Davis Allen | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −4.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 6 | 7 | 80 | 0 | 22% | +1.0 |
| Davante Adams | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 | 13% | +3.5 |
| Colby Parkinson | 5 | 6 | 31 | 1 | 19% | +2.2 |
| Tyler Higbee | 4 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 13% | −3.8 |
| Blake Corum | 2 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 6% | +2.2 |
| Kyren Williams | 3 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 19% | −3.5 |
| Konata Mumpfield | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 9% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Landman | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Wallace | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Quentin Lake | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kam Curl | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Young | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Watson | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamren Kinchens | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Omar Speights | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen McCollough | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josaiah Stewart | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
