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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:27 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 2026 · Huntington Bank Field
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 6
It turned at Q4 0:42, 3rd and 5, on Jerry Jeudy — 23.5 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Cleveland Browns 13–10 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:42, Browns +23.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:42 · 3rd and 5
Jerry Jeudy
Browns
(:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 3-J.Jeudy to BAL 29 for 33 yards (24-M.Starks).
23.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Browns won this one — +0.02 expected points per carry, against Ravens at -0.56 expected points per carry.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Browns at 1 chunk play.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Browns won this one — 43% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Ravens at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — +0.14 expected points per dropback, against Browns at -0.21 expected points per dropback.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
(:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 3-J.Jeudy to BAL 29 for 33 yards (24-M.Starks).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
Win probability — this number changed
The win probability on this page changed: it was ESPN's model's and it is now the league play-by-play model's. The two models are fitted differently and do not produce the same number on the same play.
How the points landed
Andre Szmyt's 37-yard field goal with 0:00 left in the 4th put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Andre Szmyt37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.SunaharaLead never changed again+310–135 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ravenscategory by categoryBrowns
Ravens ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Browns, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.56 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 57 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Browns’s 60 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 2, Browns 2.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Ravens-0.6 ptsright on their number · +4.2 vs their -4.8 pts, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.49× that swing) · 57 snaps
Browns-2.0 ptsright on their number · −1.5 vs their -0.4 pts, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.26× that swing) · 60 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 23% to 77%
Tendencies room →Ravens55.0%right on their number · +5.1 vs their 49.9%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (+0.49× that swing) · 40 early downs
Browns55.8%inside their normal wobble · −2.1 vs their 57.9%, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (−0.51× that swing) · 43 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 50%
Tendencies room →Ravens31.6%right on their number · +3.1 vs their 28.5%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.37× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Browns18.9%right on their number · −0.1 vs their 19.0%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−0.01× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17% to 77%
Fourth Down room →Ravens33.3%right on their number · +3.3 vs their 30.0%, and they swing ±18.3 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Browns33.3%no read · no ruler yet — only 2 games of theirs this season
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 62%
Tendencies room →Ravens29.7%right on their number · −0.8 vs their 30.5%, and they swing ±12.2 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Browns18.4%inside their normal wobble · −4.7 vs their 23.1%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 34%
Tendencies room →Ravens24.3%leaned — got home · +6.4 vs their 17.9%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+1.04× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Browns23.7%leaned — got home · +5.5 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+1.06× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
CLE's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 23.7%, 5.5 points above their season mean of 18.2% and 1.1 times their own 5.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · BAL
19/31, 165 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
4.6 expected points added · -1.3% completion over expected
Passing · CLE
16/26, 164 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-6.9 expected points added · -0.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jerry Jeudy banked 5.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh CuevasTE · Rotational Receiver | 14.4 | +4.1 | 40% | — | 16% | 15% | 4/5, 44 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyler HuntleyQB · Starter QB | 13.4 | −1.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/31, 165 yd, 1 TD · 5 car, 28 yd |
| Zay FlowersWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.7 | −4.2 | 88% | — | 35% | 39% | 1 car, 1 yd · 6/11, 66 yd |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.9 | +5.3 | 62% | — | 16% | 26% | 4/4, 69 yd |
| Jaleel McLaughlinRB · Committee Back | 9.5 | −0.7 | 62% | — | 16% | 0% | 9 car, 41 yd · 4/4, 14 yd |
| Deshaun WatsonQB · Starter QB | 9.5 | −3.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/26, 164 yd · 8 car, 29 yd |
| Ja'Kobi LaneWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.0 | +1.8 | 54% | — | 16% | 21% | 4/5, 40 yd |
| Audric EstiméRB | 7.9 | +1.7 | 30% | — | 0% | — | 9 car, 19 yd, 1 TD |
| KC ConcepcionWR · Featured Receiver | 7.9 | −3.2 | 81% | — | 24% | 26% | 2 car, 2 yd · 4/6, 37 yd |
| Derrick HenryRB · Bell Cow Back | 5.0 | −12.4 | 58% | — | 3% | 0% | 17 car, 58 yd · 1/1, 2 yd |
| Justice HillRB | 3.9 | −0.3 | 42% | — | 10% | 0% | 3/3, 9 yd |
| Denzel BostonWR · Featured Receiver | 2.5 | −5.9 | 92% | — | 20% | 41% | 1/5, 15 yd |
| Tylan WallaceWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | +1.2 | 16% | — | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 12 yd |
| Harold Fannin Jr.TE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −1.6 | 89% | — | 12% | 5% | 1/3, 9 yd |
| Blake WhiteheartTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.2 | 27% | — | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −3.1 | 72% | — | 10% | 7% | 1/3, 4 yd |
| Michael BurtonRB | 0.2 | −1.6 | 16% | — | 4% | 0% | 1 car, 2 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Rasheen AliRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Devontez WalkerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.1 | 65% | — | 6% | 21% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Rashod BatemanWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 30% | — | 3% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| LaJohntay WesterWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Malachi CorleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 3-J.Jeudy to BAL 29 for 33 yards (24-M.Starks).
Q4 0:42 · Browns · 3rd & 5 at CLE 38 · gained 33 · +2.24 EP · +16.8% win probability
155 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 170 plays across 22 drives, manual charting on 165. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 66 yards from the BAL 34 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Ravens6
Browns0Ravens7Browns0Ravens10Browns0Ravens10Browns3How the play was built
Under center, two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Six in the box.
Ravens10Browns9Ravens10Browns10How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, five in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Ravens10Browns13Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Ravens at Browns, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | 19/31 | 165 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +4.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 17 | 58 | 3.4 | 0 | −8.9 |
| Tyler Huntley | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Zay Flowers |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 6 | 11 | 66 | 0 | 35% | +0.7 |
| Josh Cuevas | 4 | 5 | 44 | 1 | 16% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trenton Simpson | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylinn Hawkins | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Hamilton |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 16/26 | 164 | 0 | 0 | 5 | −6.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_06_BAL_CLE
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 39.5; the game landed 23 — under by 16.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.7 |
| +6.5 |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 | 16% | +5.7 |
| Justice Hill | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 10% | −1.3 |
| Mark Andrews | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 10% | −1.9 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Rashod Bateman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| Devontez Walker | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −0.8 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Malaki Starks | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Roquan Smith | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nnamdi Madubuike | 4 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Jones | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tavius Robinson | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Keyon Martin | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zion Young | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Deshaun Watson | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Audric Estimé | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 1 | −1.1 |
| KC Concepcion | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Michael Burton | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +2.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 4 | 4 | 69 | 0 | 16% | +5.9 |
| KC Concepcion | 4 | 6 | 37 | 0 | 24% | +0.6 |
| Denzel Boston | 1 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 20% | −2.0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 4 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 16% | −0.9 |
| Tylan Wallace | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 4% | +0.7 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 12% | −3.0 |
| Blake Whiteheart | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +0.6 |
| Michael Burton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Schwesinger | 5 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Emmanuel McNeil-Warren | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Quincy Williams | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hickman Jr. | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Kamara | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah McGuire | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Harden | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Maliek Collins | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jared Verse | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Easton Mascarenas-Arnold | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
