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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 2026 · Allegiant Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 6
It turned at Q4 8:13, 3rd and 8, on Tre Tucker — 16.8 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Buffalo Bills 33–30 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 8:13, Raiders +16.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 8:13 · 3rd and 8
Tre Tucker
Raiders
(8:13) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-T.Tucker for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Bills won this one — +0.01 expected points per carry, against Raiders at -0.28 expected points per carry.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Raiders owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 12 on third down, against Bills at 4 of 10 on third down.
Raidersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Bills won this one — no giveaways, against Raiders at 1 giveaway.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Raiders at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 16.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
(8:13) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-T.Tucker for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
Win probability — this number changed
The win probability on this page changed: it was ESPN's model's and it is now the league play-by-play model's. The two models are fitted differently and do not produce the same number on the same play.
How the points landed
James Cook's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 4:49 left in the 4th put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
13 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Billscategory by categoryRaiders
Bills ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Raiders, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 61 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Raiders’s 61 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Bills 6, Raiders 6.
Raiders outgained Bills 378-348 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
LV's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 33.3% in week 1 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 6.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 5 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 20.6 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
BUF's blitz rate sent, 41.5%, is past their previous high of 37.5% in week 5 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.5 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Bills2.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.9 vs their -2.1 pts, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.67× that swing) · 61 snaps
Raiders-2.7 ptsright on their number · −0.2 vs their -2.5 pts, and they swing ±2.4 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 30% to 74%
Tendencies room →Bills52.9%right on their number · +0.6 vs their 52.4%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.06× that swing) · 51 early downs
Raiders61.2%inside their normal wobble · +5.8 vs their 55.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.91× that swing) · 49 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 8% to 47%
Tendencies room →Bills27.8%right on their number · +0.0 vs their 27.7%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.00× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Raiders24.4%right on their number · +1.5 vs their 22.9%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.28× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18% to 87%
Fourth Down room →Bills—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Raiders0.0%leaned — took the kick · −34.7 vs their 34.7%, and they swing ±20.6 week to week (−1.68× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 5% to 51%
Tendencies room →Bills41.5%leaned — sent pressure · +6.4 vs their 35.0%, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (+1.42× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Raiders36.1%leaned — sent pressure · +9.1 vs their 27.0%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+1.07× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 35%
Tendencies room →Bills14.6%right on their number · −2.2 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Raiders16.7%inside their normal wobble · −3.6 vs their 20.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−0.63× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
LV's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 34.7 points below their season mean of 34.7% and 1.7 times their own 20.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · LV
23/41, 313 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
11.5 expected points added · -9.7% completion over expected
Passing · BUF
23/33, 255 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
10.7 expected points added · +5.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Tre Tucker banked 13.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre TuckerWR · Rotational Receiver | 26.7 | +13.4 | 70% | — | 18% | 31% | 5/7, 97 yd, 2 TD |
| James CookRB · Bell Cow Back | 24.3 | +6.1 | 66% | — | 10% | 0% | 22 car, 95 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 58 yd |
| Kirk CousinsQB · Starter QB | 18.5 | −1.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/41, 313 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT |
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 18.3 | −1.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/33, 255 yd, 2 TD · 5 car, 1 yd |
| Michael MayerTE · Featured Receiver | 16.5 | +2.5 | 79% | — | 23% | 10% | 7/9, 95 yd |
| Keon ColemanWR · Featured Receiver | 15.9 | +4.2 | 85% | — | 20% | 48% | 4/6, 59 yd, 1 TD |
| Ashton JeantyRB · Committee Back | 15.8 | −5.5 | 58% | — | 15% | 6% | 10 car, 22 yd, 1 TD · 4/6, 36 yd |
| Khalil ShakirWR · Featured Receiver | 13.4 | +0.9 | 60% | — | 20% | 15% | 4/6, 34 yd, 1 TD |
| Brock BowersTE · Featured Receiver | 11.0 | −7.5 | 98% | — | 23% | 34% | 4/9, 70 yd |
| Dalton KincaidTE · Alpha Receiver | 10.8 | −3.8 | 72% | — | 27% | 8% | 7/8, 38 yd |
| Mike Washington Jr.RB | 6.0 | −1.7 | 35% | — | 3% | 0% | 9 car, 43 yd · 1/1, 7 yd |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 4.7 | +1.0 | 18% | — | 7% | 1% | 1 car, 3 yd · 2/2, 24 yd |
| Josh PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | +0.5 | 25% | — | 7% | 26% | 1/2, 37 yd |
| Ray DavisRB | 1.9 | −0.2 | 13% | — | 3% | 1% | 1 car, 4 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Jalen NailorWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −4.0 | 64% | — | 10% | 15% | 1/4, 9 yd |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.0 | −0.4 | 69% | — | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 0 yd |
| Dylan LaubeRB | 0.9 | −0.8 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Keleki LatuTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Greg DortchWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Skyler BellWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.0 | 44% | — | 3% | 9% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jackson HawesTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 37% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Connor HeywardRB | 0.0 | — | 20% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Cody WhiteWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −5.1 | 21% | — | 5% | 4% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Dareke YoungWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Malik BensonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 12% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 6 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(8:13) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-T.Tucker for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 8:13 · Raiders · 3rd & 8 at BUF 11 · gained 11 · +3.15 EP · +21.1% win probability
169 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 182 plays across 20 drives, manual charting on 177. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
13 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 91 yards from the LV 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Bills3
Raiders0Bills3Raiders6Bills3Raiders7Bills6Raiders7Bills12Raiders7Bills13Raiders7Bills13Raiders10Bills13Raiders13Bills16Raiders13Bills22Raiders13Bills23Raiders13Bills23Raiders16How the play was built
Under center, empty backfield, a man in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, five in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Bills23Raiders22Bills23Raiders23How the play was built
Under center, play action, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, seven in the box.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
How the play was built
Under center, three in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Seven in the box.
Bills29Raiders23Bills30Raiders23Bills33Raiders23Bills33Raiders29Bills33Raiders30Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bills at Raiders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 23/33 | 255 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +10.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 22 | 95 | 4.3 | 1 | −0.0 |
| Ray Davis | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Ty Johnson |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keon Coleman | 4 | 6 | 59 | 1 | 20% | +5.3 |
| James Cook | 3 | 3 | 58 | 0 | 10% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrel Bernard | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Bishop | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Damar Hamlin |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 23/41 | 313 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +11.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_06_BUF_LV
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -5.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 53.5; the game landed 63 — over by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 3.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.3 |
| Josh Allen | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 | +0.0 |
| +5.0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 7 | 8 | 38 | 0 | 27% | −1.1 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 2 | 37 | 0 | 7% | +1.9 |
| Khalil Shakir | 4 | 6 | 34 | 1 | 20% | +2.6 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 7% | +4.0 |
| Ray Davis | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | +0.0 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Skyler Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Dorian Williams | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Deone Walker | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Gaines | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeWayne Carter | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dee Alford | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Benford | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Joe Andreessen | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Washington Jr. | 9 | 43 | 4.8 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 10 | 22 | 2.2 | 1 | −3.8 |
| Dylan Laube | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Tucker | 5 | 7 | 97 | 2 | 18% | +9.0 |
| Michael Mayer | 7 | 9 | 95 | 0 | 23% | +2.5 |
| Brock Bowers | 4 | 9 | 70 | 0 | 23% | +3.2 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 4 | 6 | 36 | 0 | 15% | +2.4 |
| Jalen Nailor | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 10% | −1.8 |
| Mike Washington Jr. | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | +0.3 |
| Cody White | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −2.2 |
| Dylan Laube | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 3% | −1.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nakobe Dean | 3 | 9 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Chinn | 9 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Treydan Stukes | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Quay Walker | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maxx Crosby | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taron Johnson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kwity Paye | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Stokes | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Pola-Mao | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thomas Booker | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
