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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 2026 · Lincoln Financial Field
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 6
It turned at Q2 1:56, 3rd and 15, on Tetairoa McMillan — 8.9 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Carolina Panthers 25–14. Biggest swing: Q2 1:56, Panthers +8.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:56 · 3rd and 15
Tetairoa McMillan
Panthers
(1:56) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 4-T.McMillan to CAR 36 for 21 yards (27-Q.Mitchell).
8.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Panthers won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Eagles at 0 chunk plays.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Panthers won this one — +0.12 expected points per snap, against Eagles at -0.17 expected points per snap.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Panthers won this one — +0.15 expected points per carry, against Eagles at -0.14 expected points per carry.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Panthers at 3 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
(1:56) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 4-T.McMillan to CAR 36 for 21 yards (27-Q.Mitchell).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
Win probability — this number changed
The win probability on this page changed: it was ESPN's model's and it is now the league play-by-play model's. The two models are fitted differently and do not produce the same number on the same play.
How the points landed
Ryan Fitzgerald's 47-yard field goal with 10:56 left in the 1st put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Ryan Fitzgerald47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.JansenLead never changed again+33–0Tommy Tremble19-yd TD catch19-yard touchdown catchfrom Bryce Young · kick no good, wide right+625–147 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Pantherscategory by categoryEagles
Panthers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 73 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Eagles’s 61 at 79%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 4, Eagles 2.
Panthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PHI's pass rate over expected, +10.7 pts, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 3.6 points clear of the next team along.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
PHI's play-action rate, 12.5%, is past their previous low of 16.1% in week 3 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
48 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 3.5 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
PHI's early-down pass rate, 75.6%, is past their previous high of 66.7% in week 5 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.9 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
CAR's sack or hit rate, 20.8%, is past their previous high of 15.4% in week 2 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 6.
48 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 5 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points. · +1.3σ from their own normal
CAR's early-down pass rate, 59.3%, is past their previous low of 60.5% in week 2 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 6.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 5 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 1.9 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Panthers7.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · +2.3 vs their 4.8 pts, and they swing ±4.1 week to week (+0.55× that swing) · 72 snaps
Eagles10.7 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +12.2 vs their -1.6 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+1.59× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 30% to 86%
Tendencies room →Panthers59.3%leaned — ran early · −2.2 vs their 61.5%, and they swing ±1.9 week to week (−1.16× that swing) · 54 early downs
Eagles75.6%leaned — passed early · +17.5 vs their 58.1%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (+1.60× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 6% to 44%
Tendencies room →Panthers20.9%inside their normal wobble · −4.3 vs their 25.2%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.58× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Eagles12.5%leaned — dropped back clean · −5.7 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±3.5 week to week (−1.62× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 7% to 60%
Fourth Down room →Panthers33.3%no read · no ruler yet — only 3 games of theirs this season
Eagles—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 62%
Tendencies room →Panthers39.6%right on their number · +2.5 vs their 37.1%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Eagles34.9%inside their normal wobble · +9.3 vs their 25.6%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (+0.94× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 29%
Tendencies room →Panthers20.8%leaned — got home · +7.8 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+1.26× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Eagles9.3%right on their number · −0.8 vs their 10.1%, and they swing ±3.7 week to week (−0.22× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
PHI's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 12.5%, 5.7 points below their season mean of 18.2% and 1.6 times their own 3.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · CAR
20/39, 281 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
4.0 expected points added · -8.2% completion over expected
Passing · PHI
26/45, 215 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-8.6 expected points added · -6.4% completion over expected
Receiving · CAR
6/9 for 86 yds, 0 TD
26% of team targets · 5.7 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Tommy Tremble banked 11.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational Receiver | 20.6 | +11.3 | 68% | — | 11% | 11% | 4/4, 46 yd, 2 TD |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.5 | −0.2 | 66% | — | 32% | 49% | 7/14, 75 yd, 1 TD |
| Bryce YoungQB · Starter QB | 19.8 | −0.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/39, 281 yd, 2 TD · 3 car, 6 yd |
| Chuba HubbardRB · Bell Cow Back | 19.1 | −3.6 | 94% | — | 6% | 0% | 28 car, 120 yd, 1 TD · 1/2, 1 yd |
| Jalen CokerWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.7 | −5.5 | 75% | — | 37% | 42% | 6/13, 97 yd |
| Dameon PierceRB · Bell Cow Back | 15.0 | −0.1 | 95% | — | 11% | 1% | 12 car, 35 yd, 1 TD · 4/5, 15 yd |
| Tetairoa McMillanWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.6 | −1.6 | 76% | — | 26% | 29% | 6/9, 86 yd |
| Tanner McKeeQB · Starter QB | 12.6 | +1.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 26/45, 215 yd, 1 TD · 1 car, 0 yd |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Featured Receiver | 12.1 | +0.9 | 81% | — | 18% | 15% | 6/8, 61 yd |
| Makai LemonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | −3.0 | 81% | — | 14% | 9% | 3/6, 19 yd |
| John Metchie IIIWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | −1.6 | 34% | — | 9% | 8% | 2/3, 24 yd |
| Dontayvion WicksWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | 0.0 | 62% | — | 9% | 17% | 2/4, 24 yd |
| David MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | +2.1 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Darius CooperWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −1.1 | 61% | — | 5% | 6% | 1/2, 9 yd |
| Elijah MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −0.9 | 12% | — | 5% | 3% | 1/2, 4 yd |
| Carson SteeleRB | 1.4 | −0.9 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Johnny MundtTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | 0.0 | 30% | — | 2% | 1% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Mitchell EvansTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.1 | −1.7 | 54% | — | 3% | 0% | 1 car, 1 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Darren WallerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.8 | 46% | — | 6% | 12% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Brycen TremayneWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 32% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Feleipe FranksTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Britain CoveyWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| E.J. JenkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Trevor EtienneRB | -0.1 | −0.7 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:56) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 4-T.McMillan to CAR 36 for 21 yards (27-Q.Mitchell).
Q2 1:56 · Panthers · 3rd & 15 at CAR 15 · gained 21 · +2.16 EP · +11.3% win probability
179 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 187 plays across 23 drives, manual charting on 182. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 92 yards from the CAR 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
187 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
187 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Panthers3
Eagles0Panthers9Eagles0Panthers10Eagles0Panthers10Eagles6Panthers10Eagles7How the play was built
Shotgun, empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Panthers13Eagles7How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Panthers19Eagles7Panthers19Eagles13Panthers19Eagles14Panthers25Eagles14Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Panthers at Eagles, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 20/39 | 281 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +4.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 28 | 120 | 4.3 | 1 | +5.1 |
| Bryce Young | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 | −5.4 |
| Mitchell Evans |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Coker | 6 | 13 | 97 | 0 | 37% | +0.9 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 6 | 9 | 86 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Okereke | 6 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Nick Scott | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Will Lee III |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner McKee | 26/45 | 215 | 1 | 0 | 3 | −8.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_06_CAR_PHI
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Panthers closed -3 and covered, winning by 11.
Total closed 39.5; the game landed 39 — under by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.4 |
| Trevor Etienne | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| 26% |
| +5.7 |
| Tommy Tremble | 4 | 4 | 46 | 2 | 11% | +4.8 |
| David Moore | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 | 3% | +2.2 |
| John Metchie III | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 9% | +0.6 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6% | −1.0 |
| Mitchell Evans | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Darren Waller | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −2.8 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 3 |
| Tre'von Moehrig | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Lloyd | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zakee Wheatley | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Akayleb Evans | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Simmons | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaelan Phillips | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Brycen Tremayne | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 12 | 35 | 2.9 | 1 | −0.3 |
| Tanner McKee | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 7 | 14 | 75 | 1 | 32% | −0.5 |
| Dallas Goedert | 6 | 8 | 61 | 0 | 18% | +4.4 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 9% | +1.8 |
| Makai Lemon | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 14% | −2.9 |
| Dameon Pierce | 4 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 11% | −2.7 |
| Darius Cooper | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 5% | −0.6 |
| Carson Steele | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5% | −1.0 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5% | −1.2 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2% | −0.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arnold Ebiketie | 1 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Mukuba | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Trotter Jr. | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Cooper DeJean | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zack Baun | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Byron Young | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinyon Mitchell | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Jihaad Campbell | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore II | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Davis | 0 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
