For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 2026 · Lambeau Field
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 6
It turned at Q2 2:00, 1st and 15, on Brandon Cisse — 13.6 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Green Bay Packers 23–13. Biggest swing: Q2 2:00, Packers +13.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 2:00 · 1st and 15
Brandon Cisse
Packers
(2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 88-C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by 2-B.Cisse at GB 18. 2-B.Cisse ran ob at GB 23 for 5 yards (3-G.Pickens).
13.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Packers won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Cowboys at 1 chunk play.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Packers won this one — 11 of 18 on third down, against Cowboys at 5 of 13 on third down.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.14 expected points per dropback, against Cowboys at -0.16 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Packers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Cowboys at 2 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 6.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
(2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 88-C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by 2-B.Cisse at GB 18. 2-B.Cisse ran ob at GB 23 for 5 yards (3-G.Pickens).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
Win probability — this number changed
The win probability on this page changed: it was ESPN's model's and it is now the league play-by-play model's. The two models are fitted differently and do not produce the same number on the same play.
How the points landed
Matthew Golden's 9-yard touchdown catch with 4:46 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Matthew Golden9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan LoveLead never changed again+70–77 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Cowboyscategory by categoryPackers
Packers ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 71 snaps at a 80% dropback rate against Packers’s 68 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 4, Packers 4.
Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DAL's early-down pass rate, 77.4%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 1.8 points clear of the next team along.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.9 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
DAL's blitz rate sent, 29.5%, is past their previous high of 29.0% in week 5 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 1.3 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
DAL's sack or hit rate, 18.2%, is past their previous high of 15.2% in week 1 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
GB's play-action rate turned over: 40.0% in week 5 against 15.9% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.0 points. · −0.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Cowboys5.1 ptsright on their number · +0.8 vs their 4.3 pts, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.13× that swing) · 70 snaps
Packers4.9 ptsright on their number · +1.8 vs their 3.1 pts, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (+0.32× that swing) · 68 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 35% to 88%
Tendencies room →Cowboys77.4%leaned — passed early · +10.7 vs their 66.7%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+1.35× that swing) · 53 early downs
Packers57.1%right on their number · −3.8 vs their 60.9%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−0.37× that swing) · 49 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11% to 50%
Tendencies room →Cowboys14.0%inside their normal wobble · −7.0 vs their 21.0%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.83× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
Packers15.9%right on their number · −3.9 vs their 19.8%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13% to 101%
Fourth Down room →Cowboys75.0%no read · no ruler yet — only 3 games of theirs this season
Packers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 44.2%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 70%
Tendencies room →Cowboys29.5%leaned — sent pressure · +1.8 vs their 27.8%, and they swing ±1.3 week to week (+1.41× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Packers35.1%right on their number · −0.5 vs their 35.6%, and they swing ±13.4 week to week (−0.04× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 30%
Tendencies room →Cowboys18.2%leaned — got home · +6.4 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+1.03× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Packers12.3%right on their number · −2.3 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
DAL's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 29.5%, 1.8 points above their season mean of 27.8% and 1.4 times their own 1.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 4
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · GB
23/41, 276 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
6.1 expected points added · -5.8% completion over expected
Passing · DAL
34/54, 258 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-8.4 expected points added · -3.1% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Ryan Flournoy banked 1.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew GoldenWR · Alpha Receiver | 22.4 | −8.2 | 84% | — | 33% | 52% | 6/13, 104 yd, 1 TD |
| Jordan LoveQB · Starter QB | 20.2 | −10.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/41, 276 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 12 yd, 1 TD |
| Ryan FlournoyWR · Rotational Receiver | 17.0 | +1.5 | 87% | — | 17% | 14% | 7/9, 40 yd, 1 TD |
| CeeDee LambWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.0 | −16.2 | 88% | — | 33% | 41% | 9/18, 70 yd |
| George PickensWR · Featured Receiver | 13.3 | −4.5 | 88% | — | 20% | 31% | 6/11, 73 yd |
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.0 | +0.4 | 73% | — | 4% | 0% | 11 car, 41 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 9 yd |
| Pierre StrongRB · Committee Back | 11.7 | −7.7 | 55% | — | 15% | 2% | 11 car, 28 yd · 5/6, 39 yd |
| Dak PrescottQB · Starter QB | 11.0 | −14.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 34/54, 258 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 2 car, 7 yd |
| Christian WatsonWR · Featured Receiver | 9.4 | −8.1 | 88% | — | 20% | 37% | 3/8, 64 yd |
| Tucker KraftTE · Featured Receiver | 8.7 | −8.2 | 77% | — | 20% | 8% | 5/8, 37 yd |
| Savion WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.1 | +0.2 | 53% | — | 10% | 2% | 2 car, 9 yd · 4/4, 32 yd |
| Brevyn Spann-FordTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.5 | −0.8 | 46% | — | 9% | 8% | 4/5, 35 yd |
| Hunter LuepkeRB | 3.9 | −0.6 | 14% | — | 6% | 1% | 3/3, 9 yd |
| Jake FergusonTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | −1.4 | 54% | — | 6% | 6% | 2/3, 13 yd |
| Tyler GoodsonRB | 1.9 | −5.3 | 14% | — | 6% | 1% | 2 car, 0 yd · 1/3, 9 yd |
| MarShawn LloydRB | 1.0 | −4.8 | 40% | — | 3% | 0% | 8 car, 10 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jonathan MingoWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 19% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| KaVontae TurpinWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Bo MeltonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 24% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| J. Michael SturdivantWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Coleman OwenWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Kaleb JohnsonRB | -0.2 | −0.7 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:53) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left intended for 0-M.Golden INTERCEPTED by 53-D.Winters at GB 42. 53-D.Winters for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left intended for 0-M.Golden INTERCEPTED by 53-D.Winters at GB 42. 53-D.Winters to GB 42 for no gain (0-M.Golden). GB-32-M.Lloyd was injured during the play.
Q1 1:53 · Packers · 2nd & 12 at GB 39 · gained nothing · -4.50 EP · −10.1% win probability
180 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 194 plays across 20 drives, manual charting on 189. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 90 yards from the GB 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
194 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
194 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Cowboys0
Packers6Cowboys0Packers7How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, five in the box.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
Cowboys0Packers10Cowboys0Packers16Cowboys0Packers17Cowboys6Packers17Cowboys7Packers17Cowboys7Packers20Cowboys7Packers23Cowboys13Packers23Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Cowboys at Packers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 34/54 | 258 | 1 | 2 | 1 | −8.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 11 | 41 | 3.7 | 1 | +2.4 |
| Dak Prescott | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | −2.0 |
| Tyler Goodson |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 6 | 11 | 73 | 0 | 20% | +4.0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 9 | 18 | 70 | 0 | 33% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Downs | 6 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Markquese Bell | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shemar James |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 23/41 | 276 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +6.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_06_DAL_GB
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Cowboys closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 53.5; the game landed 36 — under by 17.5.
Conditions and crew
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| −1.4 |
| −14.3 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 7 | 9 | 40 | 1 | 17% | +3.6 |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 | 9% | +1.9 |
| Jake Ferguson | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 6% | −0.5 |
| Javonte Williams | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 4% | −0.9 |
| Tyler Goodson | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 6% | −0.6 |
| Hunter Luepke | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 6% | −0.4 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Shavon Revel Jr. | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaishawn Barham | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Otito Ogbonnia | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DaRon Bland | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Juanyeh Thomas | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ameer Speed | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Joey Porter Jr. | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Pierre Strong | 11 | 28 | 2.5 | 0 | −2.0 |
| Jordan Love | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 1 | +3.6 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | 8 | 10 | 1.3 | 0 | −4.4 |
| Savion Williams | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Kaleb Johnson | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Golden | 6 | 13 | 104 | 1 | 33% | +1.5 |
| Christian Watson | 3 | 8 | 64 | 0 | 20% | +3.9 |
| Pierre Strong | 5 | 6 | 39 | 0 | 15% | +3.9 |
| Tucker Kraft | 5 | 8 | 37 | 0 | 20% | +0.9 |
| Savion Williams | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 10% | +2.3 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keisean Nixon | 8 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Evan Williams | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Javon Bullard | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Ty'Ron Hopper | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Isaiah McDuffie | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carrington Valentine | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brandon Cisse | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Lukas Van Ness | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Barryn Sorrell | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier McKinney | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
