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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:27 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 2026 · Wembley Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 6
It turned at Q4 3:59, 2nd and 4, on Travis Hunter — 22.2 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Houston Texans 34–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:59, Jaguars +22.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 3:59 · 2nd and 4
Travis Hunter
Jaguars
(3:59) (Shotgun) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 7-C.Stroud pass short right intended for 19-X.Hutchinson INTERCEPTED by 12-T.Hunter at JAX -5. Touchback. Penalty on HOU-79-A.Ersery, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
22.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 12 on third down, against Texans at 5 of 11 on third down.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 47% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Texans at 6 chunk plays.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Texans at 3 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 13 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
(3:59) (Shotgun) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 7-C.Stroud pass short right intended for 19-X.Hutchinson INTERCEPTED by 12-T.Hunter at JAX -5. Touchback. Penalty on HOU-79-A.Ersery, Ineligible Downfield Pass, decli
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
Win probability — this number changed
The win probability on this page changed: it was ESPN's model's and it is now the league play-by-play model's. The two models are fitted differently and do not produce the same number on the same play.
How the points landed
Ka'imi Fairbairn's 49-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Houston Texans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Ka'imi Fairbairn49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder K.Kroeger · snap A.BrinkmanLead never changed again+334–3111 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Texanscategory by categoryJaguars
Jaguars ahead 4–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.37 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 59 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 67 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Texans 6, Jaguars 5.
Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs 0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
JAX's pass rate over expected, +1.9 pts, is past their previous high of −1.8 pts in week 3 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 3.3 points. · +1.7σ from their own normal
JAX's early-down pass rate, 63.0%, is past their previous high of 56.3% in week 5 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.1 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
HOU's blitz rate sent, 37.2%, is past their previous high of 31.7% in week 3 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.3 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
HOU's sack or hit rate, 7.0%, is past their previous low of 9.1% in week 1 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
JAX's sack or hit rate, 5.7%, is past their previous low of 9.7% in week 2 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 13 pts
Over Expected room →Texans1.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · +2.7 vs their -0.9 pts, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 59 snaps
Jaguars1.9 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +5.6 vs their -3.7 pts, and they swing ±3.3 week to week (+1.72× that swing) · 67 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 36% to 81%
Tendencies room →Texans56.3%right on their number · −3.9 vs their 60.1%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 48 early downs
Jaguars63.0%leaned — passed early · +10.0 vs their 53.0%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+1.64× that swing) · 54 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 50%
Tendencies room →Texans14.3%leaned — dropped back clean · −7.6 vs their 21.9%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−1.08× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Jaguars18.6%inside their normal wobble · −5.7 vs their 24.3%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -41% to 91%
Fourth Down room →Texans0.0%inside their normal wobble · −25.0 vs their 25.0%, and they swing ±26.0 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Jaguars—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 62%
Tendencies room →Texans37.2%leaned — sent pressure · +14.4 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (+1.55× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Jaguars40.0%inside their normal wobble · +7.5 vs their 32.5%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (+0.66× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 37%
Tendencies room →Texans7.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −8.9 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−1.32× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Jaguars5.7%leaned — stayed blocked · −9.2 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−1.08× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
JAX's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 1.9 pts, 5.6 points above their season mean of -3.7 pts and 1.7 times their own 3.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · HOU
24/34, 312 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
13.9 expected points added · +11.5% completion over expected
Passing · JAX
24/41, 306 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
11.4 expected points added · -5.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jaylin Noel banked 12.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor LawrenceQB · Starter QB | 27.3 | +1.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/41, 306 yd, 4 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 11 yd |
| Bhayshul TutenRB · Committee Back | 24.7 | +10.6 | 58% | — | 10% | 0% | 12 car, 39 yd · 4/4, 48 yd, 2 TD |
| C.J. StroudQB · Starter QB | 23.0 | +1.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/34, 312 yd, 3 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 5 yd |
| Jaylin NoelWR · Rotational Receiver | 20.7 | +12.8 | 49% | — | 13% | 24% | 4/4, 107 yd, 1 TD |
| Travis HunterWR · Rotational Receiver | 15.9 | +8.6 | 13% | — | 10% | 6% | 4/4, 59 yd, 1 TD |
| Foster MoreauTE · Rotational Receiver | 14.7 | +7.3 | 62% | — | 6% | 3% | 2/2, 7 yd, 2 TD |
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Featured Receiver | 13.3 | −6.3 | 75% | — | 24% | 31% | 5/10, 83 yd |
| Jawhar JordanRB | 12.0 | +7.2 | 22% | — | 3% | 2% | 6 car, 43 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 7 yd |
| Nico CollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.9 | −0.3 | 73% | — | 16% | 28% | 1 car, 5 yd · 3/5, 74 yd |
| Parker WashingtonWR · Alpha Receiver | 10.4 | −10.3 | 73% | — | 27% | 41% | 4/11, 64 yd |
| Woody MarksRB · Bell Cow Back | 10.1 | −1.2 | 78% | — | 9% | 3% | 15 car, 56 yd · 2/3, 25 yd |
| Brenton StrangeTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.4 | −1.7 | 76% | — | 17% | 15% | 5/7, 44 yd |
| Nate BoerkircherTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.8 | +3.3 | 55% | — | 5% | 1% | 2/2, 8 yd, 1 TD |
| Dalton SchultzTE · Featured Receiver | 7.3 | −4.1 | 40% | — | 19% | 9% | 4/6, 33 yd |
| Marvin Harrison Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 6.4 | −0.9 | 19% | — | 13% | 19% | 3/4, 34 yd |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB | 5.5 | −2.1 | 30% | — | 2% | 1% | 11 car, 55 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Kayshon BoutteWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | −0.9 | 41% | — | 9% | 8% | 2/3, 16 yd |
| Xavier HutchinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | −3.0 | 54% | — | 9% | 5% | 2/3, 10 yd |
| Brevin JordanTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.9 | −0.4 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Cade StoverTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.5 | 0.0 | 21% | — | 0% | — | 2 car, 5 yd |
| LeQuint Allen Jr.RB | 0.1 | −0.5 | 11% | — | 0% | — | 1 car, 1 yd |
| Dare OgunbowaleRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Ameer AbdullahRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Brian Thomas Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.6 | 21% | — | 5% | 9% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Josh CameronWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 51% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.
Q4 0:03 · Texans · 4th & 1 at JAX 32 · gained nothing · +1.03 EP · +29.2% win probability
165 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 178 plays across 21 drives, manual charting on 173. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 79 yards from the JAX 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Texans6
Jaguars0Texans7Jaguars0How the play was built
Shotgun, empty backfield, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown as a checkdown.
Texans7Jaguars6Texans7Jaguars7How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Texans10Jaguars7Texans10Jaguars13Texans10Jaguars14How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Texans16Jaguars14Texans17Jaguars14Texans23Jaguars14Texans24Jaguars14Texans24Jaguars20Texans24Jaguars21Texans30Jaguars21Texans31Jaguars21Texans31Jaguars27Texans31Jaguars28How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Shotgun, a run-pass option, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, eight in the box.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
Texans31Jaguars31How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Texans34Jaguars31Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Texans at Jaguars, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 24/34 | 312 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +13.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woody Marks | 15 | 56 | 3.7 | 0 | −2.4 |
| Jawhar Jordan | 6 | 43 | 7.2 | 1 | +1.1 |
| C.J. Stroud |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylin Noel | 4 | 4 | 107 | 1 | 13% | +9.3 |
| Nico Collins | 3 | 5 | 74 | 0 | 16% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamari Lassiter | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Azeez Al-Shaair | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Derek Stingley Jr. |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 24/41 | 306 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +11.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_06_HOU_JAX
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Jaguars closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 65 — over by 22.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1 |
| 5 |
| 5.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.8 |
| Nico Collins | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Cade Stover | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | +1.1 |
| +5.1 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 13% | +2.4 |
| Dalton Schultz | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 | 19% | −1.0 |
| Woody Marks | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 9% | +1.4 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 9% | +0.8 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 9% | −5.8 |
| Jawhar Jordan | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Foster Moreau | 2 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 6% | +4.0 |
| Brevin Jordan | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 3% | −1.0 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Henry To'oTo'o | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tommy Togiai | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Calen Bullock | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Reed Blankenship | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danielle Hunter | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tremon Smith | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| M.J. Stewart | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 11 | 55 | 5.0 | 0 | +3.0 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 | +0.1 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 5 | 10 | 83 | 0 | 24% | −2.0 |
| Parker Washington | 4 | 11 | 64 | 0 | 27% | −0.7 |
| Travis Hunter | 4 | 4 | 59 | 1 | 10% | +6.7 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 4 | 4 | 48 | 2 | 10% | +7.4 |
| Brenton Strange | 5 | 7 | 44 | 0 | 17% | +0.6 |
| Nate Boerkircher | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 5% | +1.0 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.6 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foyesade Oluokun | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaevon Merriweather | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ventrell Miller | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Antonio Johnson | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarrian Jones | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Branson Combs | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Murray | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Hunter | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Travon Walker | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jourdan Lewis | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
