For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 2026 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 6
It turned at Q2 10:59, 2nd and 3, on Jack Cochrane — 9.7 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Kansas City Chiefs 22–6. Biggest swing: Q2 10:59, Chiefs +9.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 10:59 · 2nd and 3
Jack Cochrane
Chiefs
(10:59) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 84-K.Lambert-Smith INTERCEPTED by 43-J.Cochrane [97-A.Gillotte] at KC 35. 43-J.Cochrane pushed ob at LAC 17 for 48 yards (40-H.Rucci). Penalty on LAC-73-A.Harkey, Illegal Formation, declined.
9.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Chiefs won this one — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chargers at 27% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Chiefs won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Chargers at 1 chunk play.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.08 expected points per snap, against Chargers at -0.31 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Chiefs won this one — 1 giveaway, against Chargers at 3 giveaways.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
(10:59) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 84-K.Lambert-Smith INTERCEPTED by 43-J.Cochrane [97-A.Gillotte] at KC 35. 43-J.Cochrane pushed ob at LAC 17 for 48 yards (40-H.Rucci). Penalty on LAC-73-A.Harkey, Illega
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
Win probability — this number changed
The win probability on this page changed: it was ESPN's model's and it is now the league play-by-play model's. The two models are fitted differently and do not produce the same number on the same play.
How the points landed
Harrison Butker's 44-yard field goal with 11:25 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Harrison Butker44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.WinchesterLead never changed again+30–37 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chargerscategory by categoryChiefs
Chiefs ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 63 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 55 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 3, Chiefs 5.
Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.31.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
KC's blitz rate sent, 20.5%, is past their previous low of 22.0% in week 4 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 6.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 5 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
LAC's early-down pass rate turned over: 41.3% in week 5 against 61.4% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Chargers-2.2 ptsinside their normal wobble · +7.5 vs their -9.8 pts, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+0.95× that swing) · 63 snaps
Chiefs6.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.2 vs their 2.9 pts, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (+0.81× that swing) · 55 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 28% to 75%
Tendencies room →Chargers61.4%leaned — passed early · +9.7 vs their 51.6%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+1.06× that swing) · 44 early downs
Chiefs54.5%right on their number · +1.4 vs their 53.1%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 56%
Tendencies room →Chargers25.0%right on their number · −1.3 vs their 26.3%, and they swing ±3.4 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Chiefs28.1%inside their normal wobble · −7.1 vs their 35.2%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−0.90× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28% to 105%
Fourth Down room →Chargers25.0%inside their normal wobble · +12.5 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±14.4 week to week (+0.87× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Chiefs25.0%leaned — took the kick · −22.9 vs their 47.9%, and they swing ±21.9 week to week (−1.05× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 12% to 50%
Tendencies room →Chargers25.0%inside their normal wobble · −2.4 vs their 27.4%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Chiefs20.5%leaned — sat back · −7.0 vs their 27.4%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−1.20× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 42%
Tendencies room →Chargers9.4%inside their normal wobble · −9.1 vs their 18.5%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.98× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Chiefs18.2%right on their number · +3.4 vs their 14.8%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
KC's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 20.5%, 7.0 points below their season mean of 27.4% and 1.2 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 4 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · KC
23/30, 272 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
2.8 expected points added · +9.4% completion over expected
Passing · LAC
22/37, 204 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-14.0 expected points added · -9.9% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Xavier Worthy banked 4.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker IIIRB · Bell Cow Back | 27.9 | +3.4 | 74% | — | 10% | 0% | 19 car, 128 yd, 2 TD · 2/3, 11 yd |
| Xavier WorthyWR · Featured Receiver | 14.3 | +4.2 | 84% | — | 24% | 25% | 7/7, 73 yd |
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 10.5 | −5.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/30, 272 yd, 1 INT · 5 car, 16 yd |
| Travis KelceTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.3 | +0.1 | 66% | — | 17% | 30% | 4/5, 53 yd |
| Justin HerbertQB · Starter QB | 8.8 | −5.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/37, 204 yd, 1 INT · 5 car, 26 yd |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.3 | +3.4 | 64% | — | 10% | 14% | 3/3, 53 yd |
| Omarion HamptonRB · Receiving Back | 7.9 | −0.9 | 50% | — | 11% | 0% | 7 car, 18 yd · 4/4, 21 yd |
| Kimani VidalRB · Receiving Back | 7.0 | −1.4 | 37% | — | 11% | 0% | 7 car, 21 yd · 3/4, 19 yd |
| Quentin JohnstonWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.7 | +2.0 | 82% | — | 8% | 35% | 1/3, 57 yd |
| KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR · Alpha Receiver | 6.2 | −5.5 | 87% | — | 25% | 35% | 5/9, 32 yd |
| Charlie KolarTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.0 | −3.9 | 66% | — | 17% | 9% | 3/6, 20 yd |
| Cyrus AllenWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | +1.1 | 15% | — | 7% | 17% | 2/2, 27 yd |
| Oronde Gadsden IITE · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | −3.8 | 49% | — | 14% | 11% | 3/5, 17 yd |
| Emmett JohnsonRB · Receiving Back | 4.4 | −1.4 | 30% | — | 10% | 0% | 3 car, 6 yd · 2/3, 18 yd |
| Jalen RoyalsWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | −3.5 | 74% | — | 14% | 16% | 2/4, 24 yd |
| Theo Wease Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | −0.4 | 47% | — | 8% | 10% | 2/3, 21 yd |
| Ladd McConkeyWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | +1.1 | 12% | — | 3% | 5% | 1/1, 17 yd |
| Andrew ArmstrongWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | −2.5 | 69% | — | 7% | 12% | 1/2, 13 yd |
| Keaton MitchellRB | 0.4 | −1.8 | 25% | — | 3% | 0% | 2 car, 4 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Derius DavisWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.4 | −0.4 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Nikko RemigioWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Hayden RucciTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 13% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(10:59) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 84-K.Lambert-Smith INTERCEPTED by 43-J.Cochrane [97-A.Gillotte] at KC 35. 43-J.Cochrane pushed ob at LAC 17 for 48 yards (40-H.Rucci). Penalty on LAC-73-A.Harkey, Illegal Formation, declined.
Q2 10:59 · Chargers · 2nd & 3 at KC 42 · gained nothing · -7.86 EP · −15.4% win probability
156 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 23 drives, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 80 yards from the KC 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Chargers0
Chiefs3Chargers0Chiefs9Chargers3Chiefs9How the play was built
Under center, play action, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, seven in the box.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
Chargers3Chiefs15Chargers3Chiefs16Chargers3Chiefs19Chargers6Chiefs19Chargers6Chiefs22Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chargers at Chiefs, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 22/37 | 204 | 0 | 1 | 4 | −14.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Kimani Vidal | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Omarion Hampton |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Johnston | 1 | 3 | 57 | 0 | 8% | +4.6 |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith | 5 | 9 | 32 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarheeb Still | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Molden | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Jefferson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 23/30 | 272 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_06_LAC_KC
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 16.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 28 — under by 13.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 7 |
| 18 |
| 2.6 |
| 0 |
| −2.6 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| 25% |
| −16.0 |
| Omarion Hampton | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 11% | −0.2 |
| Theo Wease Jr. | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 8% | +2.8 |
| Charlie Kolar | 3 | 6 | 20 | 0 | 17% | −1.9 |
| Kimani Vidal | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 11% | +1.6 |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 14% | −3.3 |
| Ladd McConkey | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 3% | +1.2 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Daiyan Henley | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tuli Tuipulotu | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Hart | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Khalil Mack | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Dye | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Caleb Murphy | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Genesis Smith | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 19 | 128 | 6.7 | 2 | +2.8 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Emmett Johnson | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Worthy | 7 | 7 | 73 | 0 | 24% | +3.3 |
| Noah Gray | 3 | 3 | 53 | 0 | 10% | +2.7 |
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 5 | 53 | 0 | 17% | +3.2 |
| Cyrus Allen | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 7% | +0.6 |
| Jalen Royals | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 14% | −1.1 |
| Emmett Johnson | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 10% | −0.2 |
| Andrew Armstrong | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 7% | −4.9 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 10% | −0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bolton | 3 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drue Tranquill | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| George Karlaftis | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| L'Jarius Sneed | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Chamarri Conner | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Felix Anudike-Uzomah | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Roland-Wallace | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeffrey Bassa | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nohl Williams | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Peter Woods | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
