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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 2026 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 6
It turned at Q2 1:18 — 15.3 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New Orleans Saints 34–27. Biggest swing: Q2 1:18, Saints +15.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:18
Unnamed on the sheet
Saints
10-D.Carlson kicks 60 yards from NO 35 to NYG 5. 89-C.Jones to NYG 27 for 22 yards (44-I.Stalbird). FUMBLES (44-I.Stalbird), RECOVERED by NO-4-O.Delp at NYG 28.
15.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Saints won this one — 1 giveaway, against Giants at 4 giveaways.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Saints won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Giants at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 43% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Saints at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Giants owned this one and still lost it — +0.00 expected points per carry, against Saints at -0.17 expected points per carry.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 6.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
10-D.Carlson kicks 60 yards from NO 35 to NYG 5. 89-C.Jones to NYG 27 for 22 yards (44-I.Stalbird). FUMBLES (44-I.Stalbird), RECOVERED by NO-4-O.Delp at NYG 28.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
Win probability — this number changed
The win probability on this page changed: it was ESPN's model's and it is now the league play-by-play model's. The two models are fitted differently and do not produce the same number on the same play.
How the points landed
Alvin Kamara's 31-yard touchdown catch with 12:31 left in the 3rd put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Alvin Kamara31-yd TD catch31-yard touchdown catchfrom Tyler ShoughLead never changed again+717–10
Isaiah Likely24-yd TD catch24-yard touchdown catchfrom J.J. McCarthy · two-point no good+634–2411 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Saintscategory by categoryGiants
Giants ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Saints, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 67 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Giants’s 69 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Saints 4, Giants 5.
Giants outgained Saints 464-320 but lost the turnover battle 4-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NO's early-down pass rate, 37.3%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 6.4 points clear of the next team along.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.8 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
NO's pass rate over expected, −9.2 pts, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 0.3 points clear of the next team along.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
NYG's sack or hit rate, 3.1%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 1.2 points clear of the next team along.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points. · −1.0σ from their own normal
NYG's play-action rate, 7.8%, is past their previous low of 14.7% in week 4 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
51 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
NO's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 5 against 20.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 4 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 20.3 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
NO's play-action rate turned over: 3.8% in week 5 against 18.8% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.1 points. · +0.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Saints-9.2 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −6.5 vs their -2.7 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−1.05× that swing) · 67 snaps
Giants2.8 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +8.1 vs their -5.3 pts, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+1.02× that swing) · 67 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 15% to 94%
Tendencies room →Saints37.3%leaned — ran early · −20.1 vs their 57.3%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (−1.57× that swing) · 51 early downs
Giants73.6%leaned — passed early · +19.4 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±15.5 week to week (+1.25× that swing) · 53 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 42%
Tendencies room →Saints18.8%inside their normal wobble · +3.2 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Giants7.8%leaned — dropped back clean · −12.8 vs their 20.6%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−1.55× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 94%
Fourth Down room →Saints20.0%leaned — took the kick · −22.5 vs their 42.5%, and they swing ±20.3 week to week (−1.11× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Giants—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 87%
Tendencies room →Saints31.4%right on their number · −5.0 vs their 36.4%, and they swing ±13.8 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Giants53.1%inside their normal wobble · +11.6 vs their 41.5%, and they swing ±18.0 week to week (+0.65× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 27%
Tendencies room →Saints13.7%right on their number · +1.3 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Giants3.1%leaned — stayed blocked · −6.8 vs their 9.9%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−1.03× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
NO's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 37.3%, 20.1 points below their season mean of 57.3% and 1.6 times their own 12.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
New York Giants
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · NYG
11/21, 243 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
5.0 expected points added · +5.7% completion over expected
Passing · NYG
14/26, 152 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-12.0 expected points added · -15.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. banked 10.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik NabersWR · Alpha Receiver | 28.5 | +0.7 | 86% | — | 35% | 34% | 12/15, 165 yd |
| Tyler ShoughQB · Starter QB | 27.0 | +5.0 | 97% | — | 0% | — | 16/30, 144 yd, 3 TD · 5 car, 32 yd, 1 TD |
| Isaiah LikelyTE · Alpha Receiver | 23.9 | +3.8 | 91% | — | 26% | 30% | 6/11, 99 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB | 18.5 | +10.7 | 38% | — | 7% | 1% | 6 car, 18 yd, 1 TD · 2/3, 27 yd, 1 TD |
| J.J. McCarthyQB · Starter QB | 16.3 | +3.2 | 40% | — | 0% | — | 11/21, 243 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 26 yd |
| Alvin KamaraRB · Receiving Back | 14.9 | +5.4 | 26% | — | 13% | 7% | 7 car, 34 yd · 2/4, 35 yd, 1 TD |
| Chris OlaveWR · Featured Receiver | 14.3 | +1.3 | 58% | — | 23% | 29% | 4/7, 43 yd, 1 TD |
| Kendre MillerRB · Committee Back | 9.0 | −7.2 | 44% | — | 7% | 0% | 20 car, 70 yd · 2/2, 0 yd |
| Bryce LanceWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.9 | +0.8 | 50% | — | 13% | 14% | 2/4, 9 yd, 1 TD |
| Charlie JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.6 | +3.3 | 26% | — | 7% | 17% | 2/3, 66 yd |
| Devaughn VeleWR · Featured Receiver | 7.2 | −4.2 | 92% | — | 20% | 48% | 3/6, 42 yd |
| Jameis WinstonQB · Starter QB | 6.5 | −4.2 | 60% | — | 0% | — | 14/26, 152 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 3 car, 4 yd |
| Devin SingletaryRB | 4.3 | +1.2 | 40% | — | 2% | 0% | 4 car, 14 yd · 1/1, 19 yd |
| Malachi FieldsWR · Featured Receiver | 3.9 | −10.7 | 94% | — | 19% | 14% | 2/8, 19 yd |
| Oscar DelpTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | 0.0 | 43% | — | 7% | 2% | 2/2, 10 yd |
| Darnell MooneyWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −2.4 | 36% | — | 5% | 6% | 1 car, 20 yd · 0/2, 0 yd |
| CJ DonaldsonRB | 1.9 | −5.1 | 33% | — | 3% | 0% | 6 car, 39 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Barion BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.1 | 26% | — | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Najee HarrisRB | 0.2 | −1.8 | 14% | — | 0% | — | 4 car, 2 yd |
| Noah FantTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 58% | — | 3% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.9 | 58% | — | 7% | 5% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Thomas Fidone IITE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 38% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 16% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(12:31) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 41-A.Kamara for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 12:31 · Saints · 2nd & 8 at NYG 31 · gained 31 · +3.61 EP · +14.8% win probability
190 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 204 plays across 31 drives, manual charting on 199. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 31 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 93 yards from the NYG 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
204 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
204 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Saints0
Giants6Saints0Giants7Saints0Giants10Saints3Giants10How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Six rushed the passer, two of them blitzing, eight in the box.
Thrown on the second read.
Saints9Giants10Saints10Giants10How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, seven in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Saints16Giants10Saints17Giants10Saints23Giants10Saints24Giants10Saints27Giants10Saints33Giants10Saints34Giants10Saints34Giants16Saints34Giants18Saints34Giants24Saints34Giants27Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Saints at Giants, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | 16/30 | 144 | 3 | 0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendre Miller | 20 | 70 | 3.5 | 0 | −4.1 |
| CJ Donaldson | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 0 | −2.3 |
| Alvin Kamara |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 4 | 7 | 43 | 1 | 23% | +1.1 |
| Devaughn Vele | 3 | 6 | 42 | 0 | 20% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Werner | 5 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Martin Emerson | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 4 |
| Quincy Riley |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | 11/21 | 243 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +5.0 |
| Jameis Winston | 14/26 | 152 | 1 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_06_NO_NYG
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Saints closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 61 — over by 14.5.
Conditions and crew
| 7 |
| 34 |
| 4.9 |
| 0 |
| +0.1 |
| Tyler Shough | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 1 | +4.4 |
| −0.6 |
| Alvin Kamara | 2 | 4 | 35 | 1 | 13% | +1.9 |
| Oscar Delp | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 7% | −0.2 |
| Bryce Lance | 2 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 13% | +2.0 |
| Barion Brown | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Kendre Miller | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −1.6 |
| CJ Donaldson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Noah Fant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Juwan Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −1.9 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Carl Granderson | 1 | 4 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyree Wilson | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Stutsman | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Vernon Broughton | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Reid | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Blackmon | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| CJ Donaldson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| −12.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | 2 | 26 | 13.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Darnell Mooney | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 1 | +0.4 |
| Devin Singletary | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Jameis Winston | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 | +2.6 |
| Najee Harris | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | −3.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers | 12 | 15 | 165 | 0 | 35% | +2.4 |
| Isaiah Likely | 6 | 11 | 99 | 1 | 26% | −1.4 |
| Charlie Jones | 2 | 3 | 66 | 0 | 7% | +4.2 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 2 | 3 | 27 | 1 | 7% | +2.1 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 2% | +0.8 |
| Malachi Fields | 2 | 8 | 19 | 0 | 19% | −5.8 |
| Darnell Mooney | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jevon Holland | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tremaine Edmunds | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DJ Reader | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arvell Reese | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ar'Darius Washington | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deonte Banks | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Andru Phillips | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trace Ford | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shelby Harris | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
