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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 2026 · Gillette Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 6
It turned at Q3 8:17, 1st and 10, on TreVeyon Henderson — 8.7 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
New England Patriots 26–19. Biggest swing: Q3 8:17, Jets +8.7% win probability on one snap.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 8:17 · 1st and 10
TreVeyon Henderson
Jets
(8:17) (Shotgun) 32-T.Henderson right guard to NE 35 for 6 yards (31-D.Bailey; 91-J.Briggs). FUMBLES (31-D.Bailey), RECOVERED by NYJ-44-J.Sherwood at NE 36. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
8.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Patriots won this one — 9 of 15 on third down, against Jets at 3 of 10 on third down.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Patriots won this one — 2 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Jets at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Patriots at 2 giveaways.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Patriots at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
(8:17) (Shotgun) 32-T.Henderson right guard to NE 35 for 6 yards (31-D.Bailey; 91-J.Briggs). FUMBLES (31-D.Bailey), RECOVERED by NYJ-44-J.Sherwood at NE 36. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
Win probability — this number changed
The win probability on this page changed: it was ESPN's model's and it is now the league play-by-play model's. The two models are fitted differently and do not produce the same number on the same play.
How the points landed
Romeo Doubs's 42-yard touchdown catch with 4:18 left in the 1st put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Hunter Henry7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Drake Maye · kick no good, wide left+613–2310 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Jetscategory by categoryPatriots
Patriots ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 59 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Patriots’s 67 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Jets 4, Patriots 5.
Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NE's play-action rate, 14.3%, is past their previous low of 18.9% in week 3 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
NE's early-down pass rate, 48.0%, is past their previous low of 51.3% in week 2 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 7 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
NYJ's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 5 against 66.7% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 4 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 32.7 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
NYJ's sack or hit rate turned over: 29.5% in week 5 against 11.4% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points. · −0.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 13 pts
Over Expected room →Jets-4.1 ptsright on their number · −0.4 vs their -3.8 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 59 snaps
Patriots-4.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.2 vs their 0.1 pts, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.88× that swing) · 67 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 27% to 78%
Tendencies room →Jets55.3%right on their number · +2.6 vs their 52.7%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 47 early downs
Patriots48.0%leaned — ran early · −6.9 vs their 54.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.06× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 0% to 43%
Tendencies room →Jets15.2%inside their normal wobble · −6.3 vs their 21.4%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.76× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Patriots14.3%leaned — dropped back clean · −8.3 vs their 22.6%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−1.33× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -57% to 110%
Fourth Down room →Jets66.7%leaned — went for it · +40.0 vs their 26.7%, and they swing ±32.7 week to week (+1.22× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Patriots50.0%no read · no ruler yet — only 3 games of theirs this season
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 11% to 61%
Tendencies room →Jets31.4%inside their normal wobble · −5.7 vs their 37.1%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−0.65× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Patriots39.4%right on their number · +3.2 vs their 36.2%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+0.33× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 35%
Tendencies room →Jets11.4%right on their number · −3.3 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Patriots18.2%right on their number · +1.3 vs their 16.9%, and they swing ±3.6 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
NE's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 14.3%, 8.3 points below their season mean of 22.6% and 1.3 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · NYJ
20/30, 252 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
5.9 expected points added · +3.5% completion over expected
Passing · NE
18/32, 235 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
12.6 expected points added · -1.9% completion over expected
Receiving · NYJ
6/7 for 103 yds, 1 TD
24% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Omar Cooper Jr. banked 10.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake MayeQB · Starter QB | 23.8 | +3.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/32, 235 yd, 3 TD · 4 car, 24 yd |
| Omar Cooper Jr.WR · Featured Receiver | 22.3 | +10.9 | 82% | — | 24% | 35% | 6/7, 103 yd, 1 TD |
| DeMario DouglasWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.6 | +6.8 | 59% | — | 27% | 27% | 7/8, 86 yd, 1 TD |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 14.8 | +6.2 | 76% | — | 17% | 5% | 4/5, 48 yd, 1 TD |
| Braelon AllenRB · Bell Cow Back | 12.4 | +1.9 | 87% | — | 7% | 1% | 17 car, 78 yd · 2/2, 26 yd |
| Geno SmithQB · Starter QB | 12.0 | +1.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/30, 252 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, -1 yd |
| Romeo DoubsWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.2 | +8.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Garrett WilsonWR · Featured Receiver | 8.4 | −2.2 | 98% | — | 21% | 22% | 4/6, 44 yd |
| Mason TaylorTE · Featured Receiver | 7.3 | −2.1 | 55% | — | 21% | 24% | 4/6, 33 yd |
| Corey KinerRB | 5.7 | +0.3 | 18% | — | 0% | — | 11 car, 57 yd |
| A.J. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 5.7 | −12.0 | 76% | — | 33% | 37% | 3/10, 27 yd |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Committee Back | 3.6 | −3.6 | 60% | — | 0% | — | 14 car, 36 yd |
| Isaiah DavisRB | 3.6 | −0.8 | 13% | — | 3% | 0% | 7 car, 16 yd · 1/1, 10 yd |
| TreVeyon HendersonRB | 3.0 | −2.1 | 24% | — | 3% | 1% | 7 car, 31 yd · 1/1, 9 yd |
| Tim PatrickWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | −1.7 | 69% | — | 10% | 6% | 1/3, 15 yd |
| Kyle WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | +0.6 | 37% | — | 3% | 5% | 1/1, 12 yd |
| Kenyon SadiqTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | −2.0 | 35% | — | 10% | 13% | 1/3, 12 yd |
| Eli RaridonTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −4.4 | 57% | — | 10% | 8% | 1/3, 11 yd |
| Jelani WoodsTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.4 | 21% | — | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Isaiah WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.4 | −0.1 | 15% | — | 0% | — | 1 car, 4 yd |
| Cameron LatuTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 26% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Efton Chism IIIWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.0 | 62% | — | 3% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Kene NwangwuRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(8:17) (Shotgun) 32-T.Henderson right guard to NE 35 for 6 yards (31-D.Bailey; 91-J.Briggs). FUMBLES (31-D.Bailey), RECOVERED by NYJ-44-J.Sherwood at NE 36. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q3 8:17 · Patriots · 1st & 10 at NE 29 · gained 6 · -5.25 EP · −10.4% win probability
159 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 174 plays across 22 drives, manual charting on 169. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 71 yards from the NE 29 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Jets3
Patriots0How the play was built
Shotgun, empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Three rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, the receiver created it himself.
Jets3Patriots6Jets3Patriots7Jets3Patriots10Jets3Patriots16Jets3Patriots17Jets9Patriots17Jets10Patriots17How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Six in the box.
Jets13Patriots17Jets13Patriots23Jets16Patriots23Jets16Patriots26Jets19Patriots26Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Jets at Patriots, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 20/30 | 252 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +5.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braelon Allen | 17 | 78 | 4.6 | 0 | −3.2 |
| Isaiah Davis | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Isaiah Williams |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omar Cooper Jr. | 6 | 7 | 103 | 1 | 24% | +5.9 |
| Garrett Wilson | 4 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamien Sherwood | 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dane Belton | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Demario Davis |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 18/32 | 235 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +12.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_06_NYJ_NE
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Patriots closed -7.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 45 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1 |
| 4 |
| 4.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.1 |
| Geno Smith | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 | −3.2 |
| 21% |
| +3.9 |
| Mason Taylor | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 | 21% | +0.9 |
| Braelon Allen | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 7% | +1.5 |
| Tim Patrick | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 10% | +0.7 |
| Kenyon Sadiq | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 10% | −3.2 |
| Isaiah Davis | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3% | +0.9 |
| Jelani Woods | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +0.9 |
| 6 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Jowon Briggs | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kingsley Enagbare | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Azareye'h Thomas | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Bailey | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrell Jackson Jr. | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Cisco | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Corey Kiner | 11 | 57 | 5.2 | 0 | +1.6 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 14 | 36 | 2.6 | 0 | −1.9 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 | −6.7 |
| Drake Maye | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMario Douglas | 7 | 8 | 86 | 1 | 27% | +3.5 |
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 5 | 48 | 1 | 17% | +5.5 |
| Romeo Doubs | 1 | 1 | 42 | 1 | 3% | +4.1 |
| A.J. Brown | 3 | 10 | 27 | 0 | 33% | −7.4 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | +2.0 |
| Eli Raridon | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 10% | +0.0 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Efton Chism III | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Jones | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kevin Byard | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Gonzalez | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Elliss | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Craig Woodson | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cory Durden | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gabe Jacas | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charles Woods | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Dre'Mont Jones | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Milton Williams | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
