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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 2026 · Raymond James Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 6
It turned at Q4 1:46, 2nd and 10, on Jamel Dean — 47.6 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Pittsburgh Steelers 26–19. Biggest swing: Q4 1:46, Steelers +47.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:46 · 2nd and 10
Jamel Dean
Steelers
(1:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right intended for 2-E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by 35-J.Dean at TB 43. 35-J.Dean pushed ob at TB 3 for 40 yards (10-J.Daniels).
47.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Steelers at 3 chunk plays.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Steelers won this one — 37% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Buccaneers at 30% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Buccaneers at 2 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Steelers won this one — -0.04 expected points per carry, against Buccaneers at -0.24 expected points per carry.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
(1:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right intended for 2-E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by 35-J.Dean at TB 43. 35-J.Dean pushed ob at TB 3 for 40 yards (10-J.Daniels).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
Win probability — this number changed
The win probability on this page changed: it was ESPN's model's and it is now the league play-by-play model's. The two models are fitted differently and do not produce the same number on the same play.
How the points landed
Germie Bernard's 6-yard touchdown catch with 3:20 left in overtime put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Germie Bernard6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Aaron RodgersLead never changed again+726–1911 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Steelerscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Steelers ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 73 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 73 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 4, Buccaneers 2.
Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.30.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TB's play-action rate, 3.8%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 4.0 points clear of the next team along.
52 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.6 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
TB's sack or hit rate, 19.2%, is past their previous high of 16.2% in week 1 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
52 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.6 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
PIT's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 50.0% in week 5 against 25.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 4 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.5 points. · −1.0σ from their own normal
TB's pass rate over expected turned over: −5.8 pts in week 5 against +1.2 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
73 snaps this game, floor 20 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 3.5 points. · +0.9σ from their own normal
TB's early-down pass rate turned over: 40.8% in week 5 against 61.5% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
52 early downs this game, floor 15 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.1 points. · +0.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -12 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Steelers6.9 ptsinside their normal wobble · +2.6 vs their 4.3 pts, and they swing ±4.4 week to week (+0.59× that swing) · 73 snaps
Buccaneers1.2 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.2 vs their -2.0 pts, and they swing ±3.5 week to week (+0.93× that swing) · 73 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 34% to 80%
Tendencies room →Steelers63.2%right on their number · −0.0 vs their 63.2%, and they swing ±2.1 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 57 early downs
Buccaneers61.5%inside their normal wobble · +4.8 vs their 56.7%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+0.53× that swing) · 52 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 55%
Tendencies room →Steelers11.5%inside their normal wobble · −5.6 vs their 17.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
Buccaneers3.8%leaned — dropped back clean · −18.8 vs their 22.6%, and they swing ±12.6 week to week (−1.50× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -60% to 101%
Fourth Down room →Steelers25.0%inside their normal wobble · −10.4 vs their 35.4%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (−0.99× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Buccaneers0.0%inside their normal wobble · −20.8 vs their 20.8%, and they swing ±31.5 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 65%
Tendencies room →Steelers25.0%right on their number · −1.3 vs their 26.3%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
Buccaneers46.2%inside their normal wobble · +4.3 vs their 41.8%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 0% to 29%
Tendencies room →Steelers17.3%right on their number · +1.7 vs their 15.7%, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
Buccaneers19.2%leaned — got home · +6.8 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (+1.48× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
TB's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 3.8%, 18.8 points below their season mean of 22.6% and 1.5 times their own 12.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · PIT
33/49, 253 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-13.5 expected points added · +5.6% completion over expected
Passing · TB
22/43, 164 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-21.8 expected points added · -15.0% completion over expected
Receiving · PIT
11/12 for 87 yds, 1 TD
27% of team targets · 1.0 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Germie Bernard banked 10.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germie BernardWR · Alpha Receiver | 25.7 | +10.1 | 94% | — | 27% | 12% | 11/12, 87 yd, 1 TD |
| DK MetcalfWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.3 | −3.9 | 95% | — | 34% | 69% | 11/15, 93 yd |
| Emeka EgbukaWR · Alpha Receiver | 17.8 | −7.5 | 86% | — | 39% | 50% | 7/16, 48 yd, 1 TD |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 16.0 | −1.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 33/49, 253 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, -1 yd |
| Darnell WashingtonTE · Rotational Receiver | 12.5 | +0.1 | 71% | — | 14% | 15% | 4/6, 25 yd, 1 TD |
| Jalon DanielsQB · Starter QB | 11.2 | −7.5 | 100% | — | 2% | 0% | 22/43, 164 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 4 car, 39 yd · 1/1, -3 yd |
| Jaylen WarrenRB · Bell Cow Back | 9.8 | −3.2 | 75% | — | 9% | 2% | 14 car, 50 yd · 2/4, 28 yd |
| Rico DowdleRB | 7.9 | −1.6 | 27% | — | 9% | 0% | 7 car, 40 yd · 3/4, 9 yd |
| Chris Godwin Jr.WR · Featured Receiver | 7.7 | −2.8 | 92% | — | 20% | 20% | 4/8, 37 yd |
| Ted Hurst IIIWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.0 | −3.5 | 50% | — | 15% | 29% | 3/6, 40 yd |
| Bucky IrvingRB · Bell Cow Back | 6.9 | −7.5 | 85% | — | 7% | 0% | 19 car, 46 yd · 2/3, 3 yd |
| Kenny GainwellRB | 3.4 | +1.0 | 15% | — | 2% | 0% | 2 car, 17 yd · 1/1, 7 yd |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −0.8 | 72% | — | 7% | 9% | 2/3, 11 yd |
| Bauer SharpTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | +1.1 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tez JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | −1.3 | 34% | — | 7% | 2% | 2/3, 7 yd |
| Cade OttonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −1.0 | 100% | — | 5% | 0% | 1/2, 4 yd |
| Brandon SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 52% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Kaden WetjenWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Lew Nichols IIIRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Riley NowakowskiRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Travis HomerRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Ko KieftTE | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Kameron JohnsonWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
7 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 7 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right intended for 2-E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by 35-J.Dean at TB 43. 35-J.Dean pushed ob at TB 3 for 40 yards (10-J.Daniels).
Q4 1:46 · Buccaneers · 2nd & 10 at TB 37 · gained nothing · -6.89 EP · −45.0% win probability
190 snaps placed · 18 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 208 plays across 29 drives, manual charting on 202. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 29 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 70 yards from the TB 15 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
208 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
208 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Shotgun, empty backfield, a screen, nobody in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, six in the box.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, dropped.
Steelers0
Buccaneers3How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, seven in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Steelers0Buccaneers9Steelers0Buccaneers10Steelers0Buccaneers13Steelers3Buccaneers13Steelers3Buccaneers16Steelers9Buccaneers16Steelers10Buccaneers16Steelers13Buccaneers16How the play was built
Shotgun, empty backfield, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, five in the box.
Steelers16Buccaneers16How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Steelers19Buccaneers16How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, five in the box.
From outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback.
Steelers19Buccaneers19How the play was built
Under center, a run-pass option, a man in motion.
Six in the box.
How the play was built
Shotgun, empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Steelers25Buccaneers19Steelers26Buccaneers19How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, eight in the box.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
How the play was built
Shotgun, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Shotgun, empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, seven in the box.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Steelers at Buccaneers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 33/49 | 253 | 2 | 1 | 5 | −13.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 14 | 50 | 3.6 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Rico Dowdle | 7 | 40 | 5.7 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Aaron Rodgers |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 11 | 15 | 93 | 0 | 34% | +2.8 |
| Germie Bernard | 11 | 12 | 87 | 1 | 27% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payton Wilson | 7 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Ramsey | 8 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaquan Brisker |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalon Daniels | 22/43 | 164 | 1 | 2 | 5 | −21.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_06_PIT_TB
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Steelers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 38.5; the game landed 45 — over by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| -1 |
| -1.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.0 |
| +1.0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 9% | +0.4 |
| Darnell Washington | 4 | 6 | 25 | 1 | 14% | −3.8 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 7% | −1.8 |
| Rico Dowdle | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 9% | −1.5 |
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Asante Samuel Jr. | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Herbig | 5 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamel Dean | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 6 |
| Patrick Queen | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Heyward | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keeanu Benton | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Daylen Everette | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Bucky Irving | 19 | 46 | 2.4 | 0 | −6.3 |
| Jalon Daniels | 4 | 39 | 9.8 | 0 | +4.6 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emeka Egbuka | 7 | 16 | 48 | 1 | 39% | −11.5 |
| Ted Hurst III | 3 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 15% | +1.3 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 4 | 8 | 37 | 0 | 20% | −0.1 |
| Bauer Sharp | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 2% | +1.4 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2% | −0.4 |
| Tez Johnson | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 7% | −2.0 |
| Cade Otton | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5% | +0.4 |
| Bucky Irving | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7% | −1.5 |
| Jalon Daniels | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 2% | −1.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josiah Trotter | 5 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zyon McCollum | 7 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tykee Smith | 2 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keionte Scott | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Walker | 4 | 3 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob Parrish | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Yaya Diaby | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Rozeboom | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rueben Bain Jr. | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| A'Shawn Robinson | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
