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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 6 · Thu, Oct 15, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 6
It turned at Q4 1:31, 3rd and 1, on Kris Abrams-Draine — 36.8 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Denver Broncos 17–14 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:31, Broncos +36.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:31 · 3rd and 1
Kris Abrams-Draine
Broncos
(1:31) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 15-T.Horton INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Abrams-Draine at DEN 31. 31-K.Abrams-Draine to DEN 31 for no gain (15-T.Horton).
36.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Broncos won this one — no giveaways, against Seahawks at 3 giveaways.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Broncos at 1 chunk play.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Broncos won this one — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Seahawks at 1 touchdown on 2 trips.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — 40% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Broncos at 29% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
(1:31) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 15-T.Horton INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Abrams-Draine at DEN 31. 31-K.Abrams-Draine to DEN 31 for no gain (15-T.Horton).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Wil Lutz's 53-yard field goal with 4:57 left in overtime put Denver Broncos ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Wil Lutz53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder J.Crawshaw · snap M.FraboniLead never changed again+314–176 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Seahawkscategory by categoryBroncos
Seahawks ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Broncos, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 81 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Broncos’s 56 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 2, Broncos 2.
Seahawks outgained Broncos 355-169 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
DEN's sack or hit rate, 26.3%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 2.0 points clear of the next team along.
57 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
SEA's play-action rate, 12.3%, is past their previous low of 25.7% in week 5 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
57 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points. · −1.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Seahawks-3.0 ptsright on their number · +1.3 vs their -4.3 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 80 snaps
Broncos-3.5 ptsright on their number · −0.4 vs their -3.1 pts, and they swing ±3.1 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 56 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 16% to 85%
Tendencies room →Seahawks62.9%inside their normal wobble · +12.3 vs their 50.6%, and they swing ±13.5 week to week (+0.91× that swing) · 62 early downs
Broncos43.9%leaned — ran early · −9.3 vs their 53.2%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−1.15× that swing) · 41 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 55%
Tendencies room →Seahawks12.3%leaned — dropped back clean · −17.2 vs their 29.5%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−1.75× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
Broncos23.3%right on their number · +1.6 vs their 21.8%, and they swing ±3.2 week to week (+0.49× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -72% to 149%
Fourth Down room →Seahawks33.3%right on their number · −5.0 vs their 38.3%, and they swing ±43.3 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Broncos—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 10.0%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 8% to 61%
Tendencies room →Seahawks23.3%right on their number · +2.1 vs their 21.3%, and they swing ±4.3 week to week (+0.48× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Broncos33.3%right on their number · −2.9 vs their 36.2%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 6% to 34%
Tendencies room →Seahawks16.7%inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 21.6%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Broncos26.3%leaned — got home · +6.4 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+1.16× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
SEA's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 12.3%, 17.2 points below their season mean of 29.5% and 1.8 times their own 9.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · SEA
27/51, 278 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-6.7 expected points added · -4.6% completion over expected
Passing · DEN
Bo NixQB
17/27, 107 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-6.1 expected points added · -0.9% completion over expected
Receiving · SEA
12/16 for 134 yds, 0 TD
35% of team targets · 11.4 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
RJ Harvey banked 3.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Alpha Receiver | 25.4 | +1.7 | 92% | — | 35% | 43% | 12/16, 134 yd |
| RJ HarveyRB · Receiving Back | 14.6 | +3.3 | 40% | — | 17% | 0% | 6 car, 25 yd, 1 TD · 3/4, 31 yd |
| J.K. DobbinsRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.6 | −0.4 | 52% | — | 13% | 0% | 17 car, 41 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 5 yd |
| Rashid ShaheedWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.8 | −1.1 | 46% | — | 17% | 31% | 1 car, 2 yd · 5/8, 66 yd |
| Sam DarnoldQB · Starter QB | 11.0 | −4.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 27/51, 278 yd, 2 INT · 2 car, 19 yd |
| Cooper KuppWR · Featured Receiver | 10.0 | −3.4 | 85% | — | 22% | 18% | 5/10, 50 yd |
| George HolaniRB | 8.0 | +2.3 | 58% | — | 0% | — | 5 car, 20 yd, 1 TD |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Alpha Receiver | 6.4 | −3.5 | 65% | — | 29% | 51% | 4/7, 24 yd |
| Emanuel WilsonRB · Committee Back | 5.2 | −2.7 | 32% | — | 2% | 0% | 14 car, 52 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| AJ BarnerTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | −0.5 | 93% | — | 9% | 4% | 3/4, 16 yd |
| Bo NixQB · Starter QB | 4.5 | −6.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/27, 107 yd · 4 car, 2 yd |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | −0.3 | 77% | — | 13% | 31% | 2/3, 19 yd |
| Evan EngramTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | +0.6 | 52% | — | 8% | 8% | 2/2, 13 yd |
| Marvin Mims Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | −3.5 | 27% | — | 17% | 40% | 2/4, 13 yd |
| Velus Jones Jr.RB | 2.9 | −0.3 | 11% | — | 2% | 0% | 4 car, 20 yd · 1/1, -1 yd |
| Tory HortonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | −4.6 | 46% | — | 11% | 7% | 1/5, 13 yd |
| Troy FranklinWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −0.3 | 52% | — | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Tyler BadieRB | 0.6 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Adam PrenticeRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Irvin CharlesWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Brady RussellRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Eric SaubertTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.0 | 19% | — | 2% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:31) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 15-T.Horton INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Abrams-Draine at DEN 31. 31-K.Abrams-Draine to DEN 31 for no gain (15-T.Horton).
Q4 1:31 · Seahawks · 3rd & 1 at DEN 39 · gained nothing · -3.84 EP · −35.2% win probability
177 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 189 plays across 25 drives, manual charting on 183. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 79 yards from the DEN 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
189 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
189 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Seahawks3
Broncos0Seahawks3Broncos6Seahawks3Broncos7Seahawks3Broncos13Seahawks3Broncos14Seahawks9Broncos14Seahawks11Broncos14How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, seven in the box.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Under center, two in the backfield, no huddle, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, seven in the box.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Seahawks14Broncos14Seahawks14Broncos17Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Seahawks at Broncos, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 27/51 | 278 | 0 | 2 | 5 | −6.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emanuel Wilson | 14 | 52 | 3.7 | 0 | +0.5 |
| George Holani | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 1 | +1.1 |
| Velus Jones Jr. |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 12 | 16 | 134 | 0 | 35% | +11.4 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 5 | 8 | 66 | 0 | 17% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernest Jones | 5 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrice Knight | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Emmanwori |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 17/27 | 107 | 0 | 0 | 2 | −6.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_06_SEA_DEN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Seahawks closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 31 — under by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
| 4 |
| 20 |
| 5.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.3 |
| Sam Darnold | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 | +1.8 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −4.1 |
| +1.1 |
| Cooper Kupp | 5 | 10 | 50 | 0 | 22% | −0.1 |
| AJ Barner | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 9% | −1.5 |
| Tory Horton | 1 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 11% | −2.9 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.9 |
| Eric Saubert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.8 |
| Velus Jones Jr. | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 2% | −0.9 |
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Ty Okada | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devon Witherspoon | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Leonard Williams | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Jobe | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Murphy II | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Love | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Derick Hall | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 17 | 41 | 2.4 | 1 | −4.7 |
| RJ Harvey | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 1 | +2.3 |
| Tyler Badie | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +2.9 |
| Bo Nix | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | −2.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Harvey | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 17% | +2.1 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 4 | 7 | 24 | 0 | 29% | −2.2 |
| Courtland Sutton | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 13% | +1.0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 17% | −0.1 |
| Evan Engram | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 8% | +1.3 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 13% | −1.5 |
| Troy Franklin | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Singleton | 4 | 9 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jones | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahdae Barron | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kris Abrams-Draine | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Taylor Rapp | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devon Key | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Quan McMillian | 5 | 0 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Zach Allen | 2 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 2 |
| Que Robinson | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nik Bonitto | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
