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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 2026 · Lucas Oil Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 6
It turned at Q4 10:25, 4th and 12 — 28.7 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Tennessee Titans 26–20. Biggest swing: Q4 10:25, Titans +28.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 10:25 · 4th and 12
Unnamed on the sheet
Titans
(10:25) 8-R.Sanchez punt is BLOCKED by 36-J.Chestnut, Center-46-L.Rhodes, RECOVERED by TEN-7-O.Oladejo at IND 14. 7-O.Oladejo for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND-8-R.Sanchez was injured during the play. PENALTY on TEN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
28.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Titans at 1 chunk play.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Titans won this one — 1 giveaway, against Colts at 3 giveaways.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 15 on third down, against Titans at 3 of 10 on third down.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Titans at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
(10:25) 8-R.Sanchez punt is BLOCKED by 36-J.Chestnut, Center-46-L.Rhodes, RECOVERED by TEN-7-O.Oladejo at IND 14. 7-O.Oladejo for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND-8-R.Sanchez was injured during the play. PENALTY on TEN, Unsports
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
Win probability — this number changed
The win probability on this page changed: it was ESPN's model's and it is now the league play-by-play model's. The two models are fitted differently and do not produce the same number on the same play.
How the points landed
Joey Slye's 49-yard field goal with 2:07 left in the 4th put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Joey Slye49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap M.CoxLead never changed again+323–2010 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Titanscategory by categoryColts
Colts ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Titans, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 44 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Colts’s 77 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Titans 2, Colts 4.
Colts outgained Titans 399-187 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
TEN's play-action rate, 34.8%, is past their previous high of 29.2% in week 2 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
23 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
TEN's sack or hit rate, 22.0%, is past their previous high of 19.2% in week 3 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
50 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Titans-3.6 ptsright on their number · +2.6 vs their -6.2 pts, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (+0.28× that swing) · 44 snaps
Colts-3.6 ptsright on their number · −0.6 vs their -3.0 pts, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 77 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 26% to 87%
Tendencies room →Titans44.1%leaned — ran early · −12.4 vs their 56.5%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (−1.04× that swing) · 34 early downs
Colts57.6%right on their number · +1.7 vs their 55.9%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.28× that swing) · 59 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 57%
Tendencies room →Titans34.8%leaned — faked the run · +11.4 vs their 23.4%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+1.51× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Colts28.0%right on their number · −1.5 vs their 29.5%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32% to 92%
Fourth Down room →Titans0.0%inside their normal wobble · −14.6 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±17.2 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Colts33.3%inside their normal wobble · −10.7 vs their 44.0%, and they swing ±17.9 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 51%
Tendencies room →Titans28.0%leaned — sent pressure · +5.0 vs their 23.0%, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (+1.09× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Colts26.1%right on their number · +4.3 vs their 21.8%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.49× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 33%
Tendencies room →Titans22.0%leaned — got home · +8.4 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+1.09× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Colts4.3%inside their normal wobble · −7.7 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
TEN's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 34.8%, 11.4 points above their season mean of 23.4% and 1.5 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · IND
22/42, 269 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-4.2 expected points added · -8.0% completion over expected
Passing · TEN
Cam WardQB
11/22, 102 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-3.6 expected points added · -20.1% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Carnell Tate banked 5.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan TaylorRB · Bell Cow Back | 21.1 | +0.1 | 78% | — | 11% | 0% | 21 car, 94 yd, 1 TD · 2/4, 57 yd |
| Carnell TateWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.0 | +5.5 | 74% | — | 32% | 65% | 6/7, 70 yd, 1 TD |
| Keenan AllenWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.2 | −1.5 | 71% | — | 29% | 28% | 8/11, 82 yd |
| Daniel JonesQB · Starter QB | 13.8 | −6.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/42, 269 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 3 car, 30 yd |
| Josh DownsWR · Featured Receiver | 8.7 | −5.8 | 86% | — | 21% | 20% | 1 car, 7 yd · 4/8, 40 yd |
| Tony PollardRB · Bell Cow Back | 7.6 | −2.1 | 76% | — | 5% | 0% | 19 car, 76 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.1 | +2.5 | 37% | — | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 1 yd, 1 TD |
| Deion BurksWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.8 | +3.3 | 18% | — | 5% | 9% | 1 car, 7 yd · 2/2, 41 yd |
| Cam WardQB · Starter QB | 6.8 | −3.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 11/22, 102 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 7 yd |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 5.2 | −4.2 | 59% | — | 32% | 28% | 3/7, 22 yd |
| Laquon TreadwellWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | −4.3 | 93% | — | 13% | 19% | 2/5, 21 yd |
| Will MalloryTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −7.4 | 52% | — | 16% | 24% | 2/6, 20 yd |
| Seth McGowanRB | 2.7 | +0.7 | 23% | — | 0% | — | 4 car, 27 yd |
| Tyjae SpearsRB | 1.8 | +0.1 | 24% | — | 5% | 0% | 1 car, 1 yd · 1/1, 7 yd |
| Pharaoh BrownTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Elic AyomanorWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −1.6 | 61% | — | 9% | 7% | 1/2, 3 yd |
| Anthony GouldWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Daniel BellingerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.6 | 48% | — | 9% | 2% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Calvin RidleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.8 | 61% | — | 9% | 7% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Chimere DikeWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 17% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Julius ChestnutRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(10:25) 8-R.Sanchez punt is BLOCKED by 36-J.Chestnut, Center-46-L.Rhodes, RECOVERED by TEN-7-O.Oladejo at IND 14. 7-O.Oladejo for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND-8-R.Sanchez was injured during the play. PENALTY on TEN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q4 10:25 · Colts · 4th & 12 at IND 37 · gained nothing · -6.13 EP · −27.9% win probability
159 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 169 plays across 21 drives, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 75 yards from the IND 20 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Shotgun, a man in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
Titans0
Colts6Titans0Colts7Titans0Colts10Titans0Colts13Titans3Colts13Titans6Colts13How the play was built
Under center, play action, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, eight in the box.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
Titans12Colts13Titans13Colts13Titans19Colts13Titans20Colts13How the play was built
Under center, two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Six in the box.
Titans20Colts19Titans20Colts20How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, seven in the box.
Thrown on the first read.
Titans23Colts20How the play was built
Shotgun, empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, five in the box.
How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, four in the box.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Titans26Colts20Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Titans at Colts, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 11/22 | 102 | 1 | 1 | 0 | −3.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 19 | 76 | 4.0 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Cam Ward | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Tyjae Spears |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carnell Tate | 6 | 7 | 70 | 1 | 32% | +5.8 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 3 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amani Hooker | 7 | 6 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tony Adams | 8 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Anthony Hill Jr. |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 22/42 | 269 | 1 | 2 | 6 | −4.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_06_TEN_IND
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Colts closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 46 — over by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.5 |
| 32% |
| −5.9 |
| Tyjae Spears | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 5% | +1.6 |
| Elic Ayomanor | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9% | −1.7 |
| Tony Pollard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.6 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9% | −1.2 |
| Calvin Ridley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9% | −1.6 |
| 3 |
| 6 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Cedric Gray | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeffery Simmons | 3 | 3 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Harris | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cody Barton | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrell Burgess | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cordale Flott | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Joshua Williams | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 21 | 94 | 4.5 | 1 | −4.8 |
| Daniel Jones | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Seth McGowan | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Deion Burks | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Josh Downs | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 8 | 11 | 82 | 0 | 29% | +4.9 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 2 | 4 | 57 | 0 | 11% | +3.2 |
| Deion Burks | 2 | 2 | 41 | 0 | 5% | +4.4 |
| Josh Downs | 4 | 8 | 40 | 0 | 21% | +0.5 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 13% | −2.9 |
| Will Mallory | 2 | 6 | 20 | 0 | 16% | −5.2 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3% | +0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akeem Davis-Gaither | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Haulcy | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adetomiwa Adebawore | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Walley | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryce Boettcher | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Camryn Bynum | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Cam Taylor-Britt | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylahn Tuimoloau | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Kapena Gushiken | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeForest Buckner | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
