For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:27 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 6 · Mon, Oct 19, 2026 · Levi's Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 6
It turned at Q4 2:00, 4th and 3, on Jayden Daniels — 16.1 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
San Francisco 49ers 23–17. Biggest swing: Q4 2:00, 49ers +16.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:00 · 4th and 3
Jayden Daniels
49ers
(2:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 13-T.Burks (6-M.Mustapha).
16.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
49ers won this one — +0.33 expected points per carry, against Commanders at -0.16 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
49ers won this one — 7 of 14 on third down, against Commanders at 3 of 12 on third down.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.21 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.01 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
49ers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Commanders at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
(2:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 13-T.Burks (6-M.Mustapha).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
Win probability — this number changed
The win probability on this page changed: it was ESPN's model's and it is now the league play-by-play model's. The two models are fitted differently and do not produce the same number on the same play.
How the points landed
George Kittle's 11-yard touchdown catch with 10:58 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
George Kittle11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Brock PurdyLead never changed again+70–77 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Commanderscategory by category49ers
49ers ahead 8–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Commanders, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 58 snaps at a 78% dropback rate against 49ers’s 60 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 4, 49ers 4.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's early-down pass rate, 72.1%, is past their previous high of 60.4% in week 2 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
WAS's sack or hit rate, 8.8%, is past their previous low of 12.8% in week 3 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 2.7 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
WAS's pass rate over expected, +5.8 pts, is past their previous high of +0.7 pts in week 3 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.3 points. · +1.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 9 pts
Over Expected room →Commanders5.8 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +7.4 vs their -1.7 pts, and they swing ±4.3 week to week (+1.73× that swing) · 58 snaps
49ers2.4 ptsright on their number · −0.5 vs their 2.9 pts, and they swing ±2.2 week to week (−0.24× that swing) · 60 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 37% to 78%
Tendencies room →Commanders72.1%leaned — passed early · +14.5 vs their 57.6%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+1.78× that swing) · 43 early downs
49ers54.5%right on their number · +1.6 vs their 53.0%, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (+0.39× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16% to 63%
Tendencies room →Commanders20.0%inside their normal wobble · −2.2 vs their 22.2%, and they swing ±3.5 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
49ers11.8%inside their normal wobble · −11.7 vs their 23.5%, and they swing ±15.4 week to week (−0.76× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -50% to 114%
Fourth Down room →Commanders75.0%leaned — went for it · +23.8 vs their 51.3%, and they swing ±23.2 week to week (+1.02× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
49ers50.0%inside their normal wobble · +25.0 vs their 25.0%, and they swing ±28.9 week to week (+0.87× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 61%
Tendencies room →Commanders44.1%right on their number · −1.5 vs their 45.6%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
49ers37.8%inside their normal wobble · +6.0 vs their 31.8%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 39%
Tendencies room →Commanders8.8%leaned — stayed blocked · −4.6 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±2.7 week to week (−1.74× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
49ers20.0%right on their number · +3.0 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.34× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
WAS's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 72.1%, 14.5 points above their season mean of 57.6% and 1.8 times their own 8.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · WAS
29/40, 300 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
2.6 expected points added · +17.6% completion over expected
Passing · SF
21/29, 264 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
3.7 expected points added · +7.2% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Stefon Diggs banked 5.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Committee Back | 30.7 | −3.4 | 85% | — | 34% | 7% | 16 car, 64 yd, 2 TD · 9/10, 53 yd |
| Jayden DanielsQB · Starter QB | 21.0 | −0.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 29/40, 300 yd, 2 TD · 4 car, 10 yd |
| George KittleTE · Alpha Receiver | 17.9 | −3.6 | 89% | — | 28% | 30% | 5/8, 69 yd, 1 TD |
| Brock PurdyQB · Starter QB | 17.4 | −6.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/29, 264 yd, 1 TD · 5 car, 28 yd |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Featured Receiver | 16.4 | +5.0 | 61% | — | 20% | 15% | 6/7, 44 yd, 1 TD |
| Rachaad WhiteRB · Committee Back | 15.7 | +2.9 | 69% | — | 14% | 3% | 7 car, 27 yd · 4/5, 30 yd, 1 TD |
| Chig OkonkwoTE · Featured Receiver | 13.9 | +3.8 | 76% | — | 20% | 13% | 7/7, 69 yd |
| Mike EvansWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.4 | +2.0 | 40% | — | 17% | 39% | 3/5, 94 yd |
| Treylon BurksWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.6 | −0.1 | 55% | — | 17% | 28% | 4/6, 66 yd |
| Antonio WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.0 | +0.1 | 67% | — | 11% | 25% | 3/4, 50 yd |
| Kaelon BlackRB | 4.7 | −1.3 | 23% | — | 3% | 0% | 8 car, 34 yd · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | +1.9 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jordan WatkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | +1.6 | 76% | — | 3% | 6% | 1/1, 22 yd |
| Austin EkelerRB | 2.7 | −0.8 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Brandin CooksWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | −2.0 | 52% | — | 7% | 5% | 1/2, 13 yd |
| Kyle JuszczykRB | 2.0 | −1.6 | 56% | — | 7% | 13% | 1/2, 10 yd |
| Dyami BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.2 | 49% | — | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| John BatesTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | 0.0 | 37% | — | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Jeremy McNicholsRB | 1.3 | −3.6 | 18% | — | 0% | — | 5 car, 13 yd |
| Jordan JamesRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Luke FarrellTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 48% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Jacob CowingWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 24% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Colson YankoffTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Luke McCaffreyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.1 | 12% | — | 3% | 10% | 0/1, 0 yd |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 13-T.Burks (6-M.Mustapha).
Q4 2:00 · Commanders · 4th & 3 at SF 17 · gained nothing · -3.00 EP · −22.1% win probability
156 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 168 plays across 19 drives, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 80 yards from the WAS 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Commanders0
49ers6Commanders049ers7Commanders349ers7Commanders349ers13Commanders349ers19Commanders349ers20Commanders349ers23Commanders949ers23Commanders1049ers23Commanders1649ers23Commanders1749ers23How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Five rushed the passer, one of them blitzing, six in the box.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Three rushed the passer, three in the box.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Commanders at 49ers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 29/40 | 300 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +2.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Jayden Daniels |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chig Okonkwo | 7 | 7 | 69 | 0 | 20% | +2.7 |
| Treylon Burks | 4 | 6 | 66 | 0 | 17% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Styles | 7 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Frankie Luvu | 2 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Amik Robertson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 21/29 | 264 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +3.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_06_WAS_SF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -7.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 51.5; the game landed 40 — under by 11.5.
Conditions and crew
| 4 |
| 10 |
| 2.5 |
| 0 |
| −1.2 |
| Austin Ekeler | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| +0.1 |
| Antonio Williams | 3 | 4 | 50 | 0 | 11% | +4.3 |
| Stefon Diggs | 6 | 7 | 44 | 1 | 20% | +4.3 |
| Rachaad White | 4 | 5 | 30 | 1 | 14% | +1.7 |
| Terry McLaurin | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 | 3% | +1.9 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.3 |
| Austin Ekeler | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6% | −0.8 |
| John Bates | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Luke McCaffrey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jeremy Reaves | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| K'Lavon Chaisson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Odafe Oweh | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kain Medrano | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasul Douglas | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Daron Payne | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dorance Armstrong | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 16 | 64 | 4.0 | 2 | +5.4 |
| Kaelon Black | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Brock Purdy | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 | +7.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 3 | 5 | 94 | 0 | 17% | +5.7 |
| George Kittle | 5 | 8 | 69 | 1 | 28% | +0.8 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 9 | 10 | 53 | 0 | 34% | −6.0 |
| Jordan Watkins | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 3% | +2.2 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 7% | −0.9 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 7% | −0.2 |
| Kaelon Black | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden Dugger | 8 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fred Warner | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ji'Ayir Brown | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keion White | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Mustapha | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Deommodore Lenoir | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Osa Odighizuwa | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Graham | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mykel Williams | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Romello Height | 0 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
