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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:38 PM ET · 1 to play · 13 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 25, 2026 · M&T Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 7
It turned at Q1 13:45, 3rd and 9, on Zay Flowers — 14.4 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Cincinnati Bengals 35–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:45, Ravens +14.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:45 · 3rd and 9
Zay Flowers
Ravens
(13:45) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Bengals won this one — 5 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Ravens at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bengals won this one — +0.33 expected points per snap, against Ravens at -0.09 expected points per snap.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bengals won this one — 57% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Ravens at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bengals won this one — +0.59 expected points per dropback, against Ravens at +0.09 expected points per dropback.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Ravens.
(13:45) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
Win probability — this number changed
The win probability on this page changed: it was ESPN's model's and it is now the league play-by-play model's. The two models are fitted differently and do not produce the same number on the same play.
How the points landed
Tee Higgins's 13-yard touchdown catch with 4:33 left in the 3rd put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Tee Higgins13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe BurrowLead never changed again+714–138 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Bengalscategory by categoryRavens
Bengals ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.59 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 51 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Ravens’s 65 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 5, Ravens 4.
Ravens outgained Bengals 359-357 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
CIN's pass rate over expected, +11.5 pts, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 7 — 2.1 points clear of the next team along.
51 snaps this game, floor 20 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 3.0 points. · +1.7σ from their own normal
BAL's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, is past their previous high of 50.0% in week 3 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 7.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 22.2 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
8 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Bengals11.5 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +5.1 vs their 6.4 pts, and they swing ±3.0 week to week (+1.70× that swing) · 51 snaps
Ravens1.7 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.6 vs their -3.9 pts, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+0.69× that swing) · 65 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 25% to 91%
Tendencies room →Bengals62.5%right on their number · +1.5 vs their 61.0%, and they swing ±11.5 week to week (+0.13× that swing) · 40 early downs
Ravens55.3%right on their number · +4.7 vs their 50.6%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+0.48× that swing) · 47 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 50%
Tendencies room →Bengals—Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 16.6%.
Ravens—Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 28.5%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20% to 93%
Fourth Down room →Bengals0.0%no read · no ruler yet — only 3 games of theirs this season
Ravens66.7%leaned — went for it · +30.6 vs their 36.1%, and they swing ±22.2 week to week (+1.38× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 62%
Tendencies room →Bengals—Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 17.3%.
Ravens—Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 30.5%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 32%
Tendencies room →Bengals15.0%right on their number · −2.5 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.49× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Ravens18.8%right on their number · +0.7 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+0.13× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
CIN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 11.5 pts, 5.1 points above their season mean of 6.4 pts and 1.7 times their own 3.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 48 never used
No offense snaps recorded for Cincinnati Bengals in this game.
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 48
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 48 never used
No offense snaps recorded for Baltimore Ravens in this game.
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 48
Who moved the needle
Passing · BAL
23/34, 298 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
3.5 expected points added · -1.8% completion over expected
Passing · CIN
22/30, 292 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
18.2 expected points added · +15.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Zay Flowers banked 10.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe BurrowQB | 28.9 | +10.3 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Zay FlowersWR | 27.7 | +10.9 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Tee HigginsWR | 26.8 | +10.8 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR | 17.2 | +3.2 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Tyler HuntleyQB | 15.1 | −1.7 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Drew SampleTE | 10.4 | +7.3 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Chase BrownRB · Committee Back | 9.8 | −2.8 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Mike GesickiTE | 7.6 | +4.3 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Samaje PerineRB | 7.6 | +3.3 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Justice HillRB · Receiving Back | 6.3 | −0.9 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Derrick HenryRB · Committee Back | 5.9 | −6.4 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Erick AllTE | 5.6 | +1.4 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Ja'Kobi LaneWR | 5.5 | −4.8 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Josh CuevasTE | 5.5 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Mark AndrewsTE | 5.3 | −2.4 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Rashod BatemanWR | 5.3 | −3.8 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| LaJohntay WesterWR | 2.5 | +1.2 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Rasheen AliRB | 1.9 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Mitchell TinsleyWR | 1.7 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Tahj BrooksRB | 0.6 | −0.7 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Matthew HibnerTE | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Dohnte MeyersWR | 0.0 | −5.2 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
22 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(13:45) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 13:45 · Ravens · 3rd & 9 at CIN 48 · gained 48 · +5.30 EP · +16.7% win probability
151 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 161 plays across 20 drives. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 88 yards from the CIN 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedThe charting release published no play detail for this snap.
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Bengals0
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Bengals20Ravens13Bengals21Ravens13The charting release published no play detail for this snap.
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Bengals27Ravens13Bengals28Ravens13The charting release published no play detail for this snap.
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Bengals34Ravens13Bengals35Ravens13The charting release published no play detail for this snap.
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Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bengals at Ravens, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 22/30 | 292 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +18.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Samaje Perine | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 1 | −0.5 |
| Joe Burrow |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 6 | 7 | 148 | 1 | 25% | +11.9 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 5 | 7 | 62 | 1 | 25% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrett Carter | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bryan Cook | 6 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Demetrius Knight Jr. |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | 23/34 | 298 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +3.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_07_CIN_BAL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bengals closed -3 and covered, winning by 22.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 48 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 2 |
| 12 |
| 6.0 |
| 0 |
| +1.3 |
| Tahj Brooks | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 | −2.1 |
| +5.8 |
| Erick All | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 11% | +1.9 |
| Drew Sample | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1 | 7% | +3.2 |
| Chase Brown | 4 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 18% | −1.7 |
| Mitchell Tinsley | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | +0.4 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 4% | +1.4 |
| Dohnte Meyers | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −2.7 |
| 2 |
| 6 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| D.J. Ivey | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| B.J. Hill | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Battle | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Boye Mafe | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Daxton Hill | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Murphy | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Kiser | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 17 | 45 | 2.6 | 0 | −6.0 |
| Rasheen Ali | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Tyler Huntley | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 | −2.8 |
| Justice Hill | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 8 | 11 | 137 | 1 | 32% | +5.9 |
| Josh Cuevas | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 9% | −0.5 |
| Rashod Bateman | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 12% | +2.3 |
| Justice Hill | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 12% | −0.1 |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 15% | +1.4 |
| Mark Andrews | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 12% | +0.4 |
| LaJohntay Wester | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 3% | +1.3 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6% | +0.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roquan Smith | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trenton Simpson | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Hamilton | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Wiggins | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| K'Von Wallace | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malaki Starks | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ethan Burke | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marlon Humphrey | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Travis Jones | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Teddye Buchanan | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
