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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:38 PM ET · 1 to play · 13 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 25, 2026 · Nissan Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 7
It turned at Q4 0:28, 1st and 10, on Harold Fannin Jr. — 22.4 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Cleveland Browns 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:28, Browns +22.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:28 · 1st and 10
Harold Fannin Jr.
Browns
(:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 44-H.Fannin to TEN 19 for 36 yards (23-K.Winston).
22.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Browns won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Titans at 5 chunk plays.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Browns won this one — 56% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Titans at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Browns won this one — +0.24 expected points per carry, against Titans at -0.14 expected points per carry.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Browns won this one — +0.15 expected points per snap, against Titans at -0.06 expected points per snap.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
(:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 44-H.Fannin to TEN 19 for 36 yards (23-K.Winston).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
Win probability — this number changed
The win probability on this page changed: it was ESPN's model's and it is now the league play-by-play model's. The two models are fitted differently and do not produce the same number on the same play.
How the points landed
Andre Szmyt's 32-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Andre Szmyt32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.SunaharaLead never changed again+327–249 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Brownscategory by categoryTitans
Browns ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 66 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Titans’s 62 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Browns 5, Titans 5.
Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
CLE's early-down pass rate, 52.7%, is past their previous low of 53.8% in week 1 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
55 early downs this game, floor 15 — 7 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.2 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
CLE's sack or hit rate turned over: 23.7% in week 6 against 12.1% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 7 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points. · −1.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Browns-5.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · −3.9 vs their -1.1 pts, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−0.69× that swing) · 66 snaps
Titans-9.3 ptsright on their number · −2.6 vs their -6.6 pts, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 62 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 86%
Tendencies room →Browns52.7%leaned — ran early · −4.4 vs their 57.1%, and they swing ±4.2 week to week (−1.06× that swing) · 55 early downs
Titans42.6%inside their normal wobble · −12.0 vs their 54.5%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (−0.99× that swing) · 47 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 43%
Tendencies room →Browns—Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 19.0%.
Titans—Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 23.4%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30% to 64%
Fourth Down room →Browns0.0%no read · no ruler yet — only 3 games of theirs this season
Titans—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 14.6%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 51%
Tendencies room →Browns—Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 23.1%.
Titans—Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 23.0%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 33%
Tendencies room →Browns12.1%inside their normal wobble · −5.2 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.99× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Titans18.4%inside their normal wobble · +4.1 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.57× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
CLE's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 52.7%, 4.4 points below their season mean of 57.1% and 1.1 times their own 4.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 48 never used
No offense snaps recorded for Cleveland Browns in this game.
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 48
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 48 never used
No offense snaps recorded for Tennessee Titans in this game.
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 48
Who moved the needle
Passing · CLE
25/36, 308 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
4.6 expected points added · +6.9% completion over expected
Passing · TEN
Cam WardQB
20/31, 181 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
5.9 expected points added · +1.6% completion over expected
Receiving · CLE
6/9 for 91 yds, 0 TD
26% of team targets · -0.6 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Quinshon Judkins banked 12.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony PollardRB · Committee Back | 36.5 | +10.6 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Quinshon JudkinsRB · Committee Back | 23.4 | +12.6 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| KC ConcepcionWR | 23.2 | +5.9 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Deshaun WatsonQB | 18.2 | +5.5 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Harold Fannin Jr.TE | 13.1 | +2.4 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Dylan SampsonRB | 10.7 | +3.7 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Carnell TateWR | 9.9 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Elic AyomanorWR | 7.4 | −2.0 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Jerry JeudyWR | 6.1 | +1.3 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Cam WardQB | 5.7 | −10.3 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Denzel BostonWR | 5.7 | −7.1 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Gunnar HelmTE | 5.4 | −0.4 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonWR | 4.7 | −3.8 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Michael CarterRB | 2.4 | −0.4 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Daniel BellingerTE | 1.4 | −1.4 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Jaleel McLaughlinRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Malachi CorleyWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Julius ChestnutRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Chimere DikeWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
19 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 44-H.Fannin to TEN 19 for 36 yards (23-K.Winston).
Q4 0:28 · Browns · 1st & 10 at CLE 45 · gained 36 · +1.18 EP · +23.2% win probability
163 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 173 plays across 22 drives. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 78 yards from the CLE 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedThe charting release published no play detail for this snap.
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Browns27Titans24Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Browns at Titans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 25/36 | 308 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +4.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinshon Judkins | 17 | 96 | 5.6 | 2 | +3.7 |
| Dylan Sampson | 6 | 45 | 7.5 | 0 | +1.3 |
| KC Concepcion |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC Concepcion | 8 | 10 | 129 | 0 | 29% | +7.8 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 6 | 9 | 91 | 0 | 26% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Hickman Jr. | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quincy Williams | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carson Schwesinger |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 20/31 | 181 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +5.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_07_CLE_TEN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Browns closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Total closed 36.5; the game landed 51 — over by 14.5.
Conditions and crew
| 3 |
| 23 |
| 7.7 |
| 0 |
| −0.2 |
| Deshaun Watson | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 1 | +2.7 |
| −0.6 |
| Dylan Sampson | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 9% | +2.6 |
| Denzel Boston | 3 | 8 | 27 | 0 | 23% | −7.1 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 11% | +0.3 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.5 |
| 4 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Grant Delpit | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sam Williams | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Harden | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyson Campbell | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Emmanuel McNeil-Warren | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Winston Reid | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malachi Corley | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 25 | 129 | 5.2 | 3 | −2.7 |
| Michael Carter | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Cam Ward | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carnell Tate | 5 | 7 | 69 | 0 | 23% | +2.0 |
| Elic Ayomanor | 3 | 7 | 44 | 0 | 23% | +2.6 |
| Tony Pollard | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 10% | +1.4 |
| Gunnar Helm | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 13% | +1.4 |
| Michael Carter | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | +1.0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 4 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 20% | −4.3 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7% | −2.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Winston Jr. | 8 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Hill Jr. | 5 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Harris | 1 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joshua Williams | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amani Hooker | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cedric Gray | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeffery Simmons | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cordale Flott | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Oluwafemi Oladejo | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Franklin-Myers | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
