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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2026 Week 7 · Thu, Oct 22, 2026 · Soldier Field
FinalThe verdict · 2026 Week 7
It turned at Q2 0:03, 1st and 10, on Rhamondre Stevenson — 14.0 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
Chicago Bears 30–24. Biggest swing: Q2 0:03, Patriots +14.0% win probability on one snap.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:03 · 1st and 10
Rhamondre Stevenson
Patriots
(:03) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 38-R.Stevenson for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Bears won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Patriots at 4 chunk plays.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bears won this one — -0.11 expected points per carry, against Patriots at -0.34 expected points per carry.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bears won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Patriots at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bears won this one — no giveaways, against Patriots at 1 giveaway.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market saw this game the same way — never more than 4 points apart.
(:03) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 38-R.Stevenson for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
Win probability — this number changed
The win probability on this page changed: it was ESPN's model's and it is now the league play-by-play model's. The two models are fitted differently and do not produce the same number on the same play.
How the points landed
Cairo Santos's 43-yard field goal with 9:58 left in the 1st put Chicago Bears ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Cairo Santos43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder T.Taylor · snap S.DalyLead never changed again+30–310 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categoryBears
Bears ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 49 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Bears’s 65 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 4, Bears 4.
Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs 0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
NE's early-down pass rate, 68.3%, is past their previous high of 56.5% in week 3 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 7 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points. · +2.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
6 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots3.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.3 vs their 0.1 pts, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+0.67× that swing) · 49 snaps
Bears3.7 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.9 vs their -0.3 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.60× that swing) · 65 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 30% to 74%
Tendencies room →Patriots68.3%off script — passed early · +13.4 vs their 54.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+2.06× that swing) · 41 early downs
Bears52.0%right on their number · +0.0 vs their 52.0%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.00× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 5% to 56%
Tendencies room →Patriots—Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 22.6%.
Bears—Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 32.0%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 105%
Fourth Down room →Patriots—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Bears—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 60.7%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 11% to 69%
Tendencies room →Patriots—Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 36.2%.
Bears—Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 41.1%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11% to 48%
Tendencies room →Patriots15.4%right on their number · −1.5 vs their 16.9%, and they swing ±3.6 week to week (−0.42× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Bears14.3%right on their number · −4.5 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±11.5 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NE's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 68.3%, 13.4 points above their season mean of 54.9% and 2.1 times their own 6.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · NE
24/31, 321 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
10.6 expected points added · +15.3% completion over expected
Passing · CHI
22/33, 308 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
13.6 expected points added · +6.7% completion over expected
Receiving · CHI
4/4 for 130 yds, 1 TD
13% of team targets · 12.8 expected points added
Receiving · NE
5/5 for 93 yds, 1 TD
17% of team targets · 8.7 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Luther Burden III banked 15.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake MayeQB · Starter QB | 27.4 | +12.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/31, 321 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 26 yd, 1 TD |
| Luther Burden IIIWR · Rotational Receiver | 23.7 | +15.3 | 61% | — | 13% | 16% | 1 car, 7 yd · 4/4, 130 yd, 1 TD |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Committee Back | 22.5 | +11.1 | 69% | — | 17% | 10% | 6 car, 22 yd · 5/5, 93 yd, 1 TD |
| Caleb WilliamsQB · Starter QB | 22.1 | +4.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/33, 308 yd, 2 TD · 5 car, 18 yd |
| Colston LovelandTE · Alpha Receiver | 19.9 | −1.8 | 84% | — | 40% | 47% | 7/12, 69 yd, 1 TD |
| D'Andre SwiftRB · Bell Cow Back | 19.0 | −0.1 | 86% | — | 13% | 0% | 22 car, 78 yd, 1 TD · 4/4, 12 yd |
| Eli RaridonTE · Rotational Receiver | 14.6 | +6.8 | 54% | — | 13% | 14% | 3/4, 56 yd, 1 TD |
| Hunter HenryTE · Featured Receiver | 14.1 | +3.1 | 76% | — | 23% | 13% | 7/7, 71 yd |
| Rome OdunzeWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.9 | +1.5 | 94% | — | 17% | 27% | 4/5, 69 yd |
| A.J. BrownWR · Featured Receiver | 7.8 | −3.3 | 91% | — | 20% | 53% | 3/6, 48 yd |
| Cole KmetTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.8 | +0.7 | 55% | — | 10% | 8% | 3/3, 28 yd |
| DeMario DouglasWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.3 | −0.3 | 65% | — | 13% | 8% | 3/4, 23 yd |
| TreVeyon HendersonRB | 4.3 | +0.2 | 24% | — | 7% | 0% | 3 car, 9 yd · 2/2, 14 yd |
| Efton Chism IIIWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | +1.3 | 63% | — | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 16 yd |
| Roschon JohnsonRB | 1.3 | +0.1 | 14% | — | 0% | — | 2 car, 13 yd |
| Corey KinerRB | 1.3 | −0.4 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Zavier ScottRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Kalif RaymondWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.7 | 70% | — | 7% | 6% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Jahdae WalkerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Zavion ThomasWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kyle WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.0 | 39% | — | 3% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:52) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 82-E.Raridon for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 3:52 · Patriots · 1st & 15 at CHI 30 · gained 30 · +3.54 EP · +10.6% win probability
158 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 171 plays across 20 drives. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 80 yards from the CHI 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
No personnel grouping was recorded for this game, so the film shows the play detail without a groupings breakdown rather than a column of dashes.
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedThe charting release published no play detail for this snap.
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Patriots0Bears9Patriots0Bears10The charting release published no play detail for this snap.
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Patriots21Bears30The charting release published no play detail for this snap.
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Patriots24Bears30Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Bears, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 24/31 | 321 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +10.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 1 | +1.3 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 | −2.2 |
| Corey Kiner |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 5 | 5 | 93 | 1 | 17% | +8.7 |
| Hunter Henry | 7 | 7 | 71 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Elliss | 8 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Craig Woodson | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marcus Jones |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 22/33 | 308 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +13.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2026_07_NE_CHI
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bears closed -3 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 50.5; the game landed 54 — over by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
| 4 |
| 13 |
| 3.3 |
| 0 |
| −1.1 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| 23% |
| +5.4 |
| Eli Raridon | 3 | 4 | 56 | 1 | 13% | +1.0 |
| A.J. Brown | 3 | 6 | 48 | 0 | 20% | +1.5 |
| DeMario Douglas | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 13% | +0.3 |
| Efton Chism III | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 3% | +1.0 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 7% | −0.0 |
| Kyle Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.5 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Kevin Byard | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charles Woods | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Spillane | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cory Durden | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Gonzalez | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Muasau | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Reed | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 22 | 78 | 3.5 | 1 | −1.4 |
| Caleb Williams | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Luther Burden III | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luther Burden III | 4 | 4 | 130 | 1 | 13% | +12.8 |
| Colston Loveland | 7 | 12 | 69 | 1 | 40% | +2.8 |
| Rome Odunze | 4 | 5 | 69 | 0 | 17% | +6.3 |
| Cole Kmet | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 10% | +1.8 |
| D'Andre Swift | 4 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 13% | −2.4 |
| Kalif Raymond | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −2.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Thieneman | 3 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| D'Marco Jackson | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Cam Lewis | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Hardy | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyler Gordon | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrique Stevenson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Devin Bush | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Booker | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylon Johnson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noah Sewell | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
