Expected stats aren't perfect, but they remain one of the best ways to identify hitters before the box scores catch up.
Using June Statcast data, these five hitters have produced significantly better underlying metrics than their actual production. If the quality of contact continues, July could look much different than June.
Miguel Vargas
The breakout may already be underway.
June:
• .405 wOBA
• .450 xwOBA
Vargas has quietly been one of baseball's best hitters this month from a quality-of-contact standpoint. He's barreling baseballs at an elite rate while continuing to control the strike zone, and the underlying metrics suggest there may still be another level coming. If this approach holds, his production could become impossible to ignore.
Fantasy Verdict: Strong trade target before the rest of your league catches on.
Alec Burleson
Burleson has done almost everything right except receive the results his contact quality deserves.
June:
• .386 wOBA
• .422 xwOBA
He's also carrying just a .260 BABIP this month despite posting a .294 BABIP across the previous three seasons. That combination of elite expected production and below-normal batted-ball luck makes him one of the clearest positive regression candidates in baseball. Better fortune on balls in play could quickly unlock another offensive surge.
Fantasy Verdict: Buy before the BABIP normalizes.
Fernando Tatis Jr.
The surface numbers have been solid, but the underlying metrics suggest even more is coming.
June: