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MLB Analysis
5 Bats to BUY to Bolster Your Fantasy Baseball Playoff Run
Five hitters whose underlying numbers point to more production ahead, making them prime trade targets before the fantasy baseball playoffs.
The fantasy baseball playoffs are approaching, and at this point in the season, buying the right hitter can completely change a roster.
Instead of simply chasing whoever has been hottest recently, we can look for hitters whose underlying production suggests their results haven't fully reflected how well they're actually hitting the baseball .
Using FanGraphs data from July 8 through August 8 , these five hitters stand out through a combination of wOBA, expected wOBA (xwOBA), exit velocity, barrel rate, and BABIP .
Every player on this list has an xwOBA above his actual wOBA. In other words, the quality of contact and overall underlying performance suggest there could be even more production coming.
Abreu might be the most obvious buy on the entire list.
A .379 wOBA over the last month is already excellent. The crazy part is that his expected production has been substantially better, with a .415 xwOBA .
The biggest number here is the .212 BABIP . Abreu has managed to produce at an extremely high level despite getting very little help when putting the ball in play.
And this isn't a case where we're blindly assuming every low BABIP must regress. His contact quality gives us an actual reason to expect better results.
Abreu has posted a 91.0 mph average exit velocity with an absurd 19.7% barrel rate , the highest of these five hitters. Nearly one out of every five batted balls being barreled is legitimate impact contact.
That's an extremely attractive combination for fantasy: excellent current production, elite barrel frequency, and a BABIP that leaves considerable room for better results.
If his batted-ball luck begins moving in the other direction while he maintains anything close to this quality of contact, Abreu could have a monster finish.
Alonso's actual results haven't come particularly close to matching the underlying numbers.
His .330 wOBA is solid, but his .389 xwOBA creates a massive 59-point gap between actual and expected production.
The contact quality explains why.
Alonso owns a 93.7 mph average exit velocity , second highest among these five hitters, while barreling 15.9% of his batted balls.
That's exactly the type of profile we want to target rather than sell because of a relatively ordinary stretch of surface-level production.
His .288 BABIP isn't nearly as extreme as Abreu's, so the buy case isn't entirely dependent on batted-ball luck improving. It's more about trusting the underlying quality of contact.
A hitter consistently impacting the baseball this hard while generating barrels at this rate should generally produce more damage than a .330 wOBA suggests.
Alonso remains exactly the type of power bat worth acquiring before the fantasy playoffs.
Lewis is different from the first two names because there isn't a massive expected-stat discrepancy screaming regression.
Instead, he's simply crushing the baseball.
Lewis has produced a .384 wOBA since July 8, and his .388 xwOBA essentially confirms that the production has been legitimate.
That's important.
We're not buying Lewis because we need something to change. We're buying because the underlying metrics support what he's already doing.
His 92.6 mph average exit velocity is excellent, while his 13.9% barrel rate gives him the type of impact-contact profile capable of producing significant fantasy value down the stretch.
Even his .299 BABIP looks relatively normal compared with the rest of his profile.
There's very little statistical smoke and mirrors here. Lewis has hit like an excellent offensive player over this stretch, and the expected numbers agree.
Sometimes the best buy isn't someone waiting for positive regression.
Sometimes it's simply a player whose breakout-level production appears legitimate.
Tatis owns a .375 wOBA over this stretch with a .381 xwOBA , meaning his excellent recent production has essentially been exactly what the quality of his plate appearances says it should be.
But the number that immediately jumps off the page is 94.2 mph average exit velocity .
That's the highest of all five hitters on this list.
His 11.1% barrel rate isn't quite as outrageous as Abreu or Alonso, but combining that barrel production with the hardest average contact of this entire group gives Tatis an extremely strong foundation.
His .303 BABIP also provides little reason to dismiss the stretch as unsustainable batted-ball fortune.
The actual production is excellent.
The expected production is excellent.
The baseball is being hit extraordinarily hard.
There isn't much more we need.
I've continued to view Tatis as a buy, and nothing in the July 8-August 8 data changes that stance.
Greene might have the most interesting profile of anyone here.
At first glance, the 86.5 mph average exit velocity stands out for the wrong reason. It's easily the lowest of these five hitters.
But then look at everything else.
Greene has managed a massive 17.7% barrel rate , second only to Abreu among this group.
His actual .321 wOBA also sits well below his .375 xwOBA , creating a substantial 54-point gap .
Then there's the .271 BABIP .
Taken together, the profile suggests Greene's overall results haven't captured the damage he's been capable of producing on his best contact.
The lower average exit velocity makes this a less straightforward profile than Alonso or Tatis, but a hitter barreling the baseball 17.7% of the time while carrying a .375 xwOBA deserves attention.
For fantasy managers looking for someone whose perceived value may be lower than his underlying offensive performance, Greene belongs firmly on the shopping list.
Final Thoughts
The goal this late in the fantasy season isn't simply to find five good hitters. It's to identify players whose current market value may still undersell what their underlying performance suggests they can provide during the fantasy playoffs.
The five profiles aren't identical.
Abreu has the most extreme BABIP combined with the highest barrel rate. Alonso has one of the largest wOBA/xwOBA discrepancies while absolutely hammering the baseball. Lewis looks less like a regression candidate and more like a legitimately excellent hitter worth trusting. Tatis continues to produce elite contact quality and remains a buy. And Greene combines a major expected-production gap with a huge barrel rate.
Based strictly on the July 8-August 8 data, all five have something worth buying into.
