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5 Underperforming Hitters Who Could Take Over October
MLB Analysis
5 Underperforming Hitters Who Could Take Over October
Five hitters are already producing, but their underlying numbers suggest another level could be coming. I broke down what could make them difference-makers.
October is rarely about which hitter had the best numbers over the first six months.
It is about who gets hot at the right time.
That is exactly what I was looking for here.
I went through FanGraphs data from August 1 through September 20 searching for hitters whose recent production may still be underselling how well they are actually hitting the baseball. I wanted strong underlying contact quality, encouraging expected statistics and profiles that could translate into a massive finish when the games matter most.
Some of these players have already been very good. That is what makes the numbers even more interesting.
Fernando Tatis Jr., Jake Bauers, Jackson Merrill, Alec Bohm and Wilyer Abreu have all shown something beneath their surface production that caught my attention.
Here are five hitters I think could be ready to make serious noise down the stretch and into October.
Calling a hitter with a .975 OPS and 163 wRC+ an underperformer sounds ridiculous.
Then I looked at Fernando Tatis Jr.'s expected numbers.
His .408 wOBA is already elite, but it still sits 28 points below his .436 xwOBA. His .622 slugging percentage also trails a massive .647 xSLG.
In other words, the results have been great and the quality of contact has been even better.
Tatis has barreled 18.0% of his batted balls while producing a 53.3% hard-hit rate. He has averaged 94.5 mph in exit velocity with a 115.5 mph maximum exit velocity.
The bat-tracking numbers make the profile even more absurd.
Tatis has averaged 76.9 mph of bat speed with a 67.5% fast-swing rate. That combination of bat speed, barrels and consistent hard contact gives him the type of offensive ceiling very few hitters can match.
He has also done this while running a .256 BABIP.
I don't need to predict some enormous Tatis breakout because, statistically, the breakout is already happening.
What interests me is that his underlying numbers suggest this version of Tatis may actually have another gear.
If that continues into October, he has the type of power profile capable of completely changing a series.
Jake Bauers is probably the name on this list that will surprise people the most.
It shouldn't.
His recent underlying numbers have been excellent.
Bauers has produced a .415 wOBA and .416 xwOBA since August 1, meaning the expected data essentially agrees completely with what he has done offensively.
The power indicators are even more interesting.
He has posted a 16.8% barrel rate and 48.1% hard-hit rate while generating a .548 xSLG. His average exit velocity sits at 90.3 mph, and he has reached 110.2 mph at the top end.
There is also an important difference between Bauers and some of the other hitters here.
His value isn't coming from an unsustainably high batting average.
Bauers has hit .269 during this stretch, but his enormous .453 OBP has helped drive a .941 OPS and 163 wRC+. He has walked in 18.7% of his plate appearances.
That plate discipline matters in October.
Pitchers become better. Matchups become tougher. At-bats become more valuable. A hitter who can control the strike zone while still producing a barrel rate north of 16% becomes extremely dangerous.
Bauers may not have the superstar name recognition of some of the other hitters here.
Jackson Merrill has already been crushing the baseball.
I still think the results could have been better.
Merrill's .391 wOBA trails his .411 xwOBA, while his .578 slugging percentage sits nearly 50 points below his .627 xSLG.
That's a pretty significant gap for someone who has already produced a .926 OPS and 152 wRC+.
The contact quality explains why.
Merrill has a 16.8% barrel rate and 48.2% hard-hit rate with a 93.3 mph average exit velocity. He has also produced a 105.8 mph EV90, another indication that the top end of his contact has been consistently loud.
And unlike a pure power hitter who has to live with massive strikeout totals, Merrill has struck out in just 23.5% of his plate appearances during this stretch.
His bat-tracking profile backs it up too.
Merrill has averaged 73.8 mph of bat speed while squaring up 38.4% of his contact, the best mark among these five hitters.
That is what I love about the profile.
This isn't simply someone running into a few home runs.
Merrill is combining impact contact with the ability to consistently get the barrel onto the baseball.
He's already producing at an elite level.
The expected numbers suggest there could still be more coming.
Alec Bohm is a different type of hitter than Tatis or Merrill.
I'm not looking at his profile and expecting an explosion of home runs.
I'm looking at a hitter whose quality of contact gives him a chance to become extremely valuable when every plate appearance starts carrying more weight.
Bohm has posted a .376 wOBA against a .391 xwOBA during this sample.
His expected slugging percentage tells an even more interesting story.
Bohm has slugged .455, but Statcast puts his xSLG at .513.
That's a 58-point difference.
His 8.8% barrel rate isn't overwhelming, but he has still hit 47.4% of his batted balls hard while averaging 90.3 mph in exit velocity.
Bohm has also struck out in only 11.3% of his plate appearances.
That's where this profile gets interesting for October.
High-contact hitters who consistently hit the ball hard create opportunities. Bohm doesn't need to sell out for power to impact a game.
Put the ball in play. Hit it hard. Force the defense to make plays.
His expected numbers indicate that approach has deserved slightly better results than it has produced.
I wouldn't be surprised if some of those missing results arrive at exactly the right time.
Wilyer Abreu might be my favorite combination of production and underlying upside on this list.
The surface numbers are good.
The contact profile is better.
Abreu has posted a .370 wOBA against a .382 xwOBA while his .503 slugging percentage trails a .517 xSLG.
He has barreled 13.1% of his batted balls and produced a 49.2% hard-hit rate.
Nearly half of his batted balls have been hit hard.
That is something I pay attention to.
Abreu's 90.5 mph average exit velocity doesn't immediately jump off the page, but his hardest contact has been excellent. His EV90 sits at 105.3 mph and his maximum exit velocity reached 110.8 mph.
He's also produced a .281 BABIP.
That matters because there isn't anything in these numbers screaming that Abreu has been surviving on an enormous amount of batted-ball luck.
Instead, I see a hitter with legitimate power, strong hard-contact numbers and expected production slightly ahead of his already-solid results.
A 137 wRC+ means he has already been 37% better than league average offensively during this stretch.
There could still be more.
Why I'm Watching These Five in October
Not every underperforming hitter is a breakout candidate.
Sometimes poor results are simply poor results.
That's why I care so much about what is happening underneath the traditional numbers.
With these five, I see reasons to believe.
Tatis has produced superstar results while carrying an even more ridiculous .436 xwOBA.
Merrill's .627 xSLG suggests his power production could have been substantially better.
Bauers has paired elite plate discipline with a 16.8% barrel rate.
Bohm continues to combine contact with nearly a 50% hard-hit rate.
Abreu's expected production remains ahead of his actual production despite an already strong 137 wRC+.
October baseball is a tiny sample.
One scorching week can change an entire postseason.
I don't know which hitter will be the one everyone is talking about when October ends.
But if I'm looking for five bats whose recent underlying numbers suggest another level could still be coming, these are the five I'm watching. Looking for MORE fantasy baseball insight? Check out our ARTICLES page
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