The second half of the fantasy baseball season is where evaluating results becomes increasingly dangerous.
A few strong starts can make a pitcher look like a completely different arm, especially when you're staring at a shiny ERA in your fantasy lineup. But with trade deadlines approaching, this is exactly when fantasy managers should be looking beyond ERA and asking whether that production is actually sustainable.
Using FanGraphs data from July 16 through August 11 , these five pitchers stand out as some of the biggest overachievers to begin the second half. Each has produced a strong surface-level ERA, but the underlying numbers tell a much less convincing story.
If another manager in your league is willing to value them based on what they've done recently, now may be the perfect opportunity to sell.
1. Tomoyuki Sugano — Colorado Rockies
Second-Half ERA: 3.47 FIP: 5.70 | xFIP: 4.18 | xERA: 7.17 K/9: 5.01 | K%: 14.0% | BABIP: .225 | LOB%: 96.4%
Nobody on this list has a more obvious collection of regression indicators than Tomoyuki Sugano.
Sugano has managed a 3.47 ERA since July 16, which looks perfectly usable for fantasy purposes. Almost everything underneath that ERA, however, points in the opposite direction.
Start with the 96.4% strand rate .
Nearly every runner Sugano has allowed to reach base has been stranded. That's an enormous reason he's been able to keep runs off the board despite his other underlying numbers. Pair that with a .225 BABIP , and he's benefited from an extremely favorable combination of balls in play becoming outs and the runners who do reach base failing to score.
The strikeout profile gives him very little margin for error, either. Sugano has generated just 5.01 K/9 with a 14.0% strikeout rate over this stretch. His 3.2% walk rate has helped, but when you're missing this few bats, you're heavily dependent on what happens once contact is made.
And the ERA estimators aren't buying the results whatsoever.
His 5.70 FIP sits more than two full runs above his 3.47 ERA. His 4.18 xFIP also points toward regression, while his 7.17 xERA is easily the most alarming number in the entire profile.
Sugano's second-half ERA might look solid in a trade offer.
That's exactly why I'd be trying to move him now.
SELL LEVEL: EXTREME
2. Grant Holmes — Atlanta Braves
Second-Half ERA: 3.04 FIP: 4.21 | xFIP: 4.29 | xERA: 5.43 K/9: 6.08 | BB/9: 3.04 | BABIP: .284 | LOB%: 84.4%
Grant Holmes has delivered a 3.04 ERA to begin the second half, but his underlying performance looks much closer to that of a pitcher with an ERA in the 4s—or potentially worse.
His 4.21 FIP and 4.29 xFIP are almost identical, and both sit more than a full run above his actual ERA. His 5.43 xERA creates an even larger gap.
The strikeout production isn't strong enough to dismiss those warning signs.
Holmes has struck out only 16.2% of hitters , producing 6.08 K/9 , while walking 8.1%. That leaves him with an 8.1% K-BB% , which isn't the type of dominant skill foundation you'd want supporting an ERA around 3.00.
He's also stranded 84.4% of baserunners .
That has been a major part of Holmes limiting the damage, but if more of those runners begin coming around to score, his ERA can move toward the underlying estimators quickly.
Even the batted-ball profile from this stretch gives reason for caution. Holmes has allowed a 50.0% medium-contact rate and 44.0% hard-contact rate , with only 6.0% of contact classified as soft.
The fantasy production has been valuable.
The process hasn't been nearly as impressive.
If another manager sees a pitcher carrying a 3.04 second-half ERA and is willing to pay accordingly, this is a strong sell-high opportunity.
SELL LEVEL: HIGH
3. Merrill Kelly — Arizona Diamondbacks
Second-Half ERA: 3.08 FIP: 5.07 | xFIP: 4.20 | xERA: 5.22 K/9: 7.18 | BB/9: 4.10 | BABIP: .282 | LOB%: 75.5%
Merrill Kelly's profile is a little different because he hasn't needed an absurd strand rate or BABIP to manufacture his 3.08 ERA .
Instead, the biggest warning signs come from the enormous gap between that ERA and his defense-independent metrics.
Kelly owns a 5.07 FIP , 4.20 xFIP , and 5.22 xERA over the period. Every one of those numbers is substantially worse than the ERA fantasy managers see on the surface.
His control has also been problematic.
Kelly has issued 4.10 BB/9 , resulting in an 11.1% walk rate . With a 19.4% strikeout rate, that leaves him with only an 8.3% K-BB% .
That isn't an especially comfortable combination.
His batted-ball profile hasn't been dominant, either. Kelly has allowed 42.3% medium contact and 42.3% hard contact , while generating a 35.9% ground-ball rate.
His .282 BABIP isn't nearly as extreme as Sugano's, and his 75.5% strand rate isn't screaming regression by itself. That's important because Kelly isn't simply appearing on this list due to one obviously unsustainable number.
It's the overall combination that's concerning.
A 3.08 ERA looks excellent. A pitcher simultaneously carrying a 5.07 FIP, 5.22 xERA, double-digit walk rate and modest strikeout rate looks considerably less appealing.
Kelly has given fantasy managers good results.
I'd use those results to explore the trade market.
SELL LEVEL: HIGH
4. Sean Manaea — New York Mets
Second-Half ERA: 3.03 FIP: 5.07 | xFIP: 4.14 | xERA: 5.07 K/9: 9.71 | K%: 25.6% | BABIP: .324 | LOB%: 88.2%
Sean Manaea is easily the most interesting name on this list because there are legitimate positives in his underlying profile.
Unlike several of the other pitchers here, Manaea is actually missing bats.
His 9.71 K/9 and 25.6% strikeout rate are excellent, and his 16.8% K-BB% is comfortably the best mark among these five pitchers.
That's the good news.
The problem is that his 3.03 ERA still isn't supported by several of the major run-prevention metrics.
Manaea has a 5.07 FIP , 4.14 xFIP , and 5.07 xERA since July 16. His FIP and xERA are both more than two runs higher than his actual ERA.
His 88.2% strand rate has played an enormous role in maintaining that ERA. Manaea has actually dealt with a relatively high .324 BABIP , so this isn't a case where everything put into play is conveniently finding a glove. Instead, he's repeatedly escaped situations with runners on base without allowing them to score.
His batted-ball numbers add another layer of concern. Manaea has allowed a 47.4% hard-contact rate , the highest among these five pitchers, while generating just 10.3% soft contact .
There's enough swing-and-miss ability here that I wouldn't dump Manaea for anything available.
But fantasy managers shouldn't automatically assume the 3.03 ERA represents his current level of performance, either.
Of the five pitchers on this list, Manaea is the one I'd demand the strongest return for because the strikeouts provide a legitimate skill worth holding.
Still, if another manager is valuing him as a 3.00-ERA starter, I'm listening.
SELL LEVEL: MODERATE
5. Randy Dobnak — Kansas City Royals
Second-Half ERA: 2.05 FIP: 4.74 | xFIP: 3.58 | xERA: 4.74 K/9: 5.13 | K%: 13.4% | BABIP: .279 | LOB%: 86.3%
Finally, we have the lowest ERA on the entire list.
Randy Dobnak has posted a ridiculous 2.05 ERA over this stretch.
The underlying numbers aren't remotely as dominant.
His 4.74 FIP and 4.74 xERA are each more than 2.5 runs higher than his actual ERA . Even his more favorable 3.58 xFIP still points toward significant regression from a 2.05 mark.
Like Sugano, Dobnak isn't generating many strikeouts.
He has produced just 5.13 K/9 with a 13.4% strikeout rate . His 8.9% walk rate leaves him with only a 4.5% K-BB% , the worst mark among these five pitchers.
That means Dobnak has been surviving while putting very few hitters away himself.
His 86.3% strand rate has helped tremendously, as has a .279 BABIP .
There's also an interesting contradiction within his batted-ball profile. Dobnak has generated a strong 54.7% ground-ball rate , which certainly helps explain some of his success, but only 9.2% of the contact against him has been classified as soft . Meanwhile, 41.4% has been hard contact.
The ground balls give him something to work with.
The lack of strikeouts gives him very little room when those batted balls stop cooperating.
A 2.05 ERA is an extremely attractive number to put in front of another fantasy manager.
I'd be doing exactly that before the deadline.
SELL LEVEL: HIGH
The Bottom Line
The goal here isn't to say these five pitchers suddenly can't help a fantasy roster. It's recognizing the difference between what has happened and what the underlying performance suggests should have happened.
Since July 16:
Tomoyuki Sugano: 3.47 ERA → 5.70 FIP / 7.17 xERA Grant Holmes: 3.04 ERA → 4.21 FIP / 5.43 xERA Merrill Kelly: 3.08 ERA → 5.07 FIP / 5.22 xERA Sean Manaea: 3.03 ERA → 5.07 FIP / 5.07 xERA Randy Dobnak: 2.05 ERA → 4.74 FIP / 4.74 xERA
That's exactly the type of disconnect fantasy managers should be searching for around the trade deadline.
Sugano is the clearest sell of the group because a .225 BABIP and 96.4% strand rate are doing enormous work behind an already weak strikeout profile. Dobnak's 2.05 ERA similarly creates an opportunity to sell results that his underlying numbers haven't supported.
Manaea deserves more caution because his strikeout production is legitimately strong, but even his ERA estimators show substantial regression risk.
Fantasy trade deadlines are about extracting value before the rest of your league sees what's coming.
These five pitchers have given you the results. Now may be the time to sell those results before regression arrives.