2026-27 Projections
2026-27 · nine categories, honest uncertainty · updated Oct 31, 2026
Victor Wembanyama owns the board: he projects 15.9 category z above replacement, clearing Nikola Jokić by 0.8. 415 players are projected, and 328 more sit honestly parked on the fringe.
Tight cone. Jokić sits 0.8 behind on five more minutes a night.
415 projected players on the board · 328 on the fringe
Sorted by 9-cat value, best first
| # | Player | Cone | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Victor Wembanyama  C · SAS · 22y | tight | 15.9 | 31.7 | —85% | |||||||||
| 2 | Nikola Jokić  C · DEN · 31y | tight | 15.1 | 36.4 | —85% | |||||||||
| 3 | Luka Dončić  G · LAL · 27y | tight | 13.4 | 36.2 | —70% | |||||||||
| 4 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander  G · OKC · 28y | tight | 12.6 | 32.7 | —85% | |||||||||
| 5 | Kawhi Leonard  F · TOR · 35y | tight | 11.7 | 32.1 | —70% | |||||||||
| 6 | Tyrese HaliburtonRET  G · IND · 26y | hazy | 11.6 | 33.0 | —55% | |||||||||
| 7 | Jamal Murray G · DEN · 29y | tight | 11.2 | 37.2 | —77% | |||||||||
| 8 | Tyrese Maxey  G · PHI · 25y | tight | 11.1 | 37.3 | —73% | |||||||||
| 9 | Jayson TatumRET  F · BOS · 28y | steady | 10.3 | 34.9 | —76% | |||||||||
| 10 | Anthony Edwards  G · MIN · 25y | tight | 10.3 | 34.9 | —68% | |||||||||
| 11 | Anthony DavisRET  C · WAS · 33y | hazy | 10.2 | 32.9 | —42% | |||||||||
| 12 | Donovan Mitchell  G · CLE · 30y | tight | 10.2 | 34.0 | —73% | |||||||||
| 13 | Stephen Curry  G · GSW · 38y | tight | 10.2 | 29.2 | —57% | |||||||||
| 14 | Cooper Flagg  G · DAL · 19y | tight | 10.0 | 33.9 | —73% | |||||||||
| 15 | Cade Cunningham  G · DET · 25y | tight | 9.7 | 33.6 | —70% | |||||||||
| 16 | Brandon Miller  F · CHA · 23y | tight | 9.5 | 34.4 | —69% | |||||||||
| 17 | Giannis Antetokounmpo  F · MIA · 31y | tight | 9.3 | 34.2 | —72% | |||||||||
| 18 | Jalen Johnson  F · ATL · 24y | tight | 9.3 | 34.5 | —75% | |||||||||
| 19 | Derrick White G · BOS · 32y | tight | 9.3 | 34.1 | —85% | |||||||||
| 20 | Kyrie IrvingRET G · DAL · 34y | hazy | 9.3 | 31.1 | —35% | |||||||||
| 21 | Desmond Bane  G · ORL · 28y | tight | 9.0 | 34.8 | —75% | |||||||||
| 22 | Scottie Barnes F · TOR · 25y | tight | 9.0 | 33.2 | —80% | |||||||||
| 23 | Evan Mobley C · CLE · 25y | tight | 9.0 | 33.7 | —70% | |||||||||
| 24 | Karl-Anthony Towns  C · NYK · 30y | tight | 8.9 | 31.2 | —77% | |||||||||
| 25 | Trey Murphy III  G · NOP · 26y | tight | 8.8 | 33.2 | —71% |
Each line is our minutes forecast multiplied by per-minute rates built from recent seasons. Tested on past seasons it had not seen, the real result landed inside the shaded range 82% of the time. 26 teams' minutes do not yet add up to a believable night (BKN 204, BOS 208, CHA 217, CHI 191, CLE 179, DAL 200, DEN 215, DET 210, GSW 194, HOU 197, IND 196, LAL 190, MEM 217, MIA 199, MIN 199, NOP 214, NYK 195, OKC 182, ORL 217, PHX 202, POR 181, SAC 210, SAS 212, TOR 175, UTA 190 and WAS 201 of the 240 a team plays), so each line holds at the player's own role and the night stays short until the depth chart fills in.
Roles that moved
Reading the rotation tree’s last 7 days.
2026-27 NBA rest-of-season projections: top 50
| Rank | Player | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Victor WembanyamaC · SAS | 25.8 | 11.5 | 3.4 |
| 2 | Nikola JokićC · DEN | 25.4 | 12.2 | 9.8 |
| 3 | Luka DončićG · LAL | 33.8 | 7.7 | 8.2 |
| 4 | Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · OKC | 29.2 | 4.5 | 6.0 |
| 5 | Kawhi LeonardF · TOR | 23.4 | 6.3 | 3.4 |
| 6 | Tyrese HaliburtonG · IND | 19.5 | 4.0 | 8.5 |
| 7 | Jamal MurrayG · DEN | 25.0 | 4.7 | 6.9 |
| 8 | Tyrese MaxeyG · PHI | 24.6 | 4.2 | 6.1 |
| 9 | Jayson TatumF · BOS | 24.6 | 8.4 | 5.7 |
| 10 | Anthony EdwardsG · MIN | 29.4 | 5.2 | 4.0 |
| 11 | Anthony DavisC · WAS | 21.3 | 9.9 | 2.9 |
| 12 | Donovan MitchellG · CLE | 25.7 | 4.8 | 5.5 |
| 13 | Stephen CurryG · GSW | 24.5 | 3.8 | 4.6 |
| 14 | Cooper FlaggG · DAL | 26.1 | 6.8 | 5.6 |
| 15 | Cade CunninghamG · DET | 23.5 | 5.7 | 9.1 |
| 16 | Brandon MillerF · CHA | 23.6 | 5.6 | 3.7 |
| 17 | Giannis AntetokounmpoF · MIA | 27.4 | 11.2 | 5.9 |
| 18 | Jalen JohnsonF · ATL | 21.3 | 9.7 | 7.3 |
| 19 | Derrick WhiteG · BOS | 15.8 | 4.5 | 5.4 |
| 20 | Kyrie IrvingG · DAL | 21.0 | 4.1 | 4.3 |
| 21 | Desmond BaneG · ORL | 20.8 | 4.8 | 4.4 |
| 22 | Scottie BarnesF · TOR | 19.0 | 7.4 | 5.8 |
| 23 | Evan MobleyC · CLE | 19.7 | 9.3 | 3.7 |
| 24 | Karl-Anthony TownsC · NYK | 20.0 | 11.3 | 3.0 |
| 25 | Trey Murphy IIIG · NOP | 18.1 | 5.3 | 3.5 |
| 26 | James HardenG · CLE | 21.2 | 5.0 | 7.4 |
| 27 | Paul GeorgeF · BOS | 16.6 | 5.7 | 4.0 |
| 28 | Kevin DurantF · HOU | 24.0 | 5.3 | 4.3 |
| 29 | Tyler HerroG · MIL | 22.8 | 5.4 | 5.0 |
| 30 | Amen ThompsonG · HOU | 18.9 | 7.8 | 5.3 |
| 31 | AJ DybantsaF · WAS | 15.0 | 4.9 | 2.7 |
| 32 | Chet HolmgrenC · OKC | 16.2 | 8.3 | 1.8 |
| 33 | Austin ReavesG · LAL | 22.8 | 4.8 | 5.6 |
| 34 | Alperen SengunC · HOU | 21.9 | 9.4 | 6.3 |
| 35 | Joel EmbiidC · PHI | 23.5 | 8.5 | 4.3 |
| 36 | Bam AdebayoC · MIA | 18.5 | 9.2 | 3.5 |
| 37 | Jalen DurenC · DET | 19.5 | 10.3 | 2.5 |
| 38 | Trae YoungG · WAS | 22.0 | 3.5 | 10.0 |
| 39 | Jalen WilliamsG · OKC | 18.9 | 5.2 | 4.9 |
| 40 | Walker KesslerC · LAL | 11.8 | 10.0 | 1.8 |
| 41 | OG AnunobyF · NYK | 16.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 |
| 42 | Franz WagnerF · ORL | 23.2 | 6.4 | 4.5 |
| 43 | Michael Porter Jr.F · BKN | 21.1 | 6.6 | 2.5 |
| 44 | Darryn PetersonG · UTA | 13.9 | 4.9 | 3.3 |
| 45 | Jalen SuggsG · ORL | 15.1 | 4.5 | 5.5 |
| 46 | LaMelo BallG · MIN | 17.2 | 4.5 | 6.5 |
| 47 | Josh GiddeyG · CHI | 15.9 | 8.0 | 9.0 |
| 48 | Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · ATL | 19.4 | 3.7 | 3.4 |
| 49 | Onyeka OkongwuC · ATL | 14.2 | 7.5 | 2.9 |
| 50 | Dejounte MurrayG · NOP | 16.9 | 5.4 | 6.3 |