What are you trying to do?
Six guides, in the order they build on each other. (6 of 6)
Step 1 of 6
Anatomy of a prop
What are all these numbers on one line actually telling me?
A prop is three separate claims — a player, a number, and a price — and only the price says what the book thinks the odds are.
$90.91
is all a $100 ticket collects at −110. The rest is the price of being allowed to bet.
Step 2 of 6
Expected value & de-vigging
Is this price cheap or expensive, and by how much?
Strip the book's cut out of the two prices and you get the fair line. The gap between fair and what you can actually bet is the whole edge.
−$4.55
the rent, per $100, on a true coin flip taken at −110
Step 3 of 6
Arbitrage
Can two books disagree enough that I win either way?
When the two implied probabilities add to less than 100%, the pair pays whatever happens — and the hard part is execution, not arithmetic.
+0.73%
locked on a +105 / −102 pair, whichever side lands
Step 4 of 6
Kelly staking
I found an edge — how much of the roll does it deserve?
Kelly turns an edge into a fraction of the bankroll. Bet the whole fraction and variance eventually takes the roll; bet a quarter of it and you survive to compound.
4.55%
of the bankroll is FULL Kelly on a coin flip priced +110 — most bet a quarter of it
Step 5 of 6
Closing-line value
Was that a good bet, or did I just get lucky?
The closing price is the sharpest estimate anyone has. Beat it repeatedly and the win rate follows; miss it repeatedly and a hot month is all you had.
+$4.33
extra on a winner, per $100, for betting −105 on something that closed −110
Step 6 of 6
Sharp money & line movement
The line moved the wrong way — what does the respected money know?
When the tickets pile onto one side and the number moves the other way, the money and the crowd disagree. That disagreement is the signal.
—
No headline number, honestly — this one is a read, not a formula, and a figure invented for it would be the only fabricated thing on the page.
Every word, defined once
Juice, limits, steam, de-vig, middling — each one written as a single self-contained sentence, with the source of its arithmetic named. It is the fastest way to read any of the six guides above without stopping.