Betting Desk · Track Record
Public Pick Ledger
Closing-line value measures how smart you were the day you placed the bet, not how lucky you got. Every edge the engine surfaces is logged the moment it appears and graded against the closing line once the market settles. No cherry-picking, no deleted losers — the ledger keeps itself.
Across 12,980 graded picks the engine's price averaged +0.57% of closing-line value — but it only beat the close 37% of the time, so that average is carried by the size of the wins, not their frequency.
The white mark is a coin flip. We land to the left of it — the close beat our price more often than not. The average is still positive because the times we won, we won by more than we lost by. Both facts are on the page; neither one is the whole story on its own.
Where the market opened, where it closed
163 games · 15 books · 1,830 stamped open/close pairs
112 of 163 games moved at least a full point between the book's own open and its own close, across 15 books. The market moved hardest on San Diego Padres, 5.0 points of win probability from open to close.
We also hold stamped totals (61,532 rows) and spreads (48,848 rows) for these games and are not drawing them. Their closing rows do not mark which of the twenty-odd stored numbers was the game's actual line, so reading one would mean picking a closing total by guess. 30 more rows carried a placeholder price rather than a real one and were dropped rather than averaged in.
How we know the close
Two bases, both statedThe close is now the book's own final number on 163 games — stamped by the book when it took the price down, not sampled by us.
Picks graded against the last price we saw before the game started. Close enough to be useful, and it is what every number above is built on today.
Closing prices stamped by the book itself, across 163 games. As these fill in, closing-line value stops being an estimate.
By edge tier
How our proprietary edges fared — sorted by edge strength, win or lose.
- Record
- 157-199
- Avg CLV
- +2.57%
- Decided
- 356
- Settled
- 1,959
- Record
- 270-247
- Avg CLV
- -0.03%
- Decided
- 517
- Settled
- 1,085
- Record
- 3312-3136
- Avg CLV
- +0.24%
- Decided
- 6,448
- Settled
- 9,936
Win rate is over decided picks (pushes excluded). CLV is over picks with a captured closing price. Every surfaced edge is counted — none are dropped, win or lose.
By sportsbook
Where our graded edges actually beat the close — ranked by average closing-line value.
Under 20graded picks a book's rate is noise, not a read — these are shown for completeness but never ranked among the mature books.
Beat-close is the share of a book's graded edges whose locked number beat where the market settled; avg CLV is the no-vig probability gap. Every book we surfaced an edge at is counted — win or lose, no prices withheld. One operator gets one row even when we stored its name several ways, and a book we no longer price keeps its record with the date of its last price stated rather than quietly disappearing.
Beating the Close
The engine's realized closing-line value, night by night.
Methodology
Every edge starts as a de-vigged fair line built from the sharpest available market consensus. When the engine finds a price that beats that fair line, it logs the offer — sport, market, side, book, price, and timestamp — exactly once. After the game starts, a settle pass captures the closing price at that same book and computes the realized closing-line value. Positive CLV means the locked number beat where the market settled; that is the honest, repeatable proof a process works.
Every graded pick
| Pick | Tier | Result | Book | Your line | Close | CLV | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLBh2h — Away | Lean | — | -700 | +120 | -92.50% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Home | Elite | — | +1100 | -136 | +85.54% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBtotals — Under 6.5 | Elite | — | +150 | +120 | +12.00% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBspreads — Home 1.5 | Lean | — | BD Bodog | -240 | -220 | -2.67% | Aug 9 |
| MLBspreads — Home 1.5 | Lean | — | -240 | -220 | -2.67% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Away | Lean | — | -235 | +102 | -41.70% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBteam_totals:Tampa Bay Rays — Over 3.5 | Elite | — | -110 | +100 | -4.76% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Away | Elite | — | -182 | -192 | +1.85% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Home | Lean | — | +210 | +170 | +6.90% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Home | Lean | — | -116 | -138 | +7.38% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Home | Strong | — | +170 | +165 | -17.78% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Home | Elite | — | +185 | +170 | +66.25% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Home | Strong | — | +170 | +178 | +61.92% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBspreads — Home 1.5 | Strong | — | BD Bodog | +120 | +100 | +9.09% | Aug 9 |
| MLBspreads — Home 1.5 | Strong | — | +120 | +100 | +9.09% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBspreads — Away -1.5 | Elite | — | +100 | -125 | +10.00% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Away | Lean | — | -700 | -210 | -29.17% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBtotals — Over 6.5 | Lean | — | +105 | -145 | +17.58% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBspreads — Home -1.5 | Lean | — | SB Sportsbetting.ag | +160 | +159 | +0.38% | Aug 9 |
| MLBspreads — Home -1.5 | Lean | — | +160 | +159 | +0.38% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBspreads — Home -1.5 | Strong | — | +170 | +155 | +5.56% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBDominic Canzone — Under 1.5 | Lean | — | -125 | -125 | +1.82% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBalternate_spreads — Away 1.5 | Lean | — | -195 | -195 | 0.00% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBalternate_totals — Over 6.5 | Lean | — | -145 | -145 | 0.00% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBalternate_totals — Under 5.5 | Lean | — | +200 | +200 | 0.00% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBTaylor Ward — Under 0.5 | Lean | — | +105 | +105 | 0.00% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBGeorge Kirby — Under 5.5 | Lean | — | -110 | -110 | 0.00% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBChandler Simpson — Over 1.5 | Lean | — | +105 | +105 | 0.00% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBalternate_spreads — Away -1.5 | Lean | — | +190 | +190 | 0.00% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBalternate_totals — Under 6.5 | Lean | — | +138 | +138 | 0.00% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBalternate_spreads — Home 1.5 | Lean | — | -195 | -195 | 0.00% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBGriffin Jax — Under 5.5 | Strong | — | -110 | -120 | +3.97% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBTaylor Ward — Over 0.5 | Lean | — | -110 | -165 | +15.87% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBGeorge Kirby — Over 5.5 | Lean | — | +110 | -120 | +12.70% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBCedric Mullins — Under 0.5 | Lean | — | +110 | +110 | 0.00% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBJonathan Aranda — Under 1.5 | Lean | — | -125 | -135 | +3.29% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBGriffin Jax — Under 4.5 | Elite | — | -125 | -165 | +10.77% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBGriffin Jax — Under 5.5 | Strong | — | -107 | -124 | +6.62% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBtotals — Under 7.5 | Lean | — | -120 | -125 | +1.82% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBtotals — Under 7.5 | Lean | — | -122 | -122 | 0.00% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBtotals — Under 6.5 | Elite | — | -750 | +140 | -111.76% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBtotals — Under 7 | Lean | — | +100 | -115 | +6.52% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBtotals — Under 7.5 | Lean | — | -105 | -125 | +7.80% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBtotals — Under 7.5 | Lean | — | BD Bodog | -105 | -125 | +7.80% | Aug 9 |
| MLBtotals — Over 7.5 | Lean | — | +105 | +109 | -1.95% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Away | Strong | — | -541 | +119 | -5.80% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Away | Lean | — | -230 | +126 | -8.65% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h_1st_5_innings — Away | Lean | — | +110 | +110 | 0.00% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBalternate_totals — Under 6.5 | Lean | — | +135 | +135 | 0.00% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBtotals — Over 7 | Lean | — | -105 | -120 | +6.10% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBspreads — Away 1.5 | Lean | — | -190 | -210 | +3.28% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Home | Strong | — | +455 | -155 | +70.36% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Home | Elite | — | -132 | -175 | +10.59% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Away | Elite | — | BD Bodog | +160 | +147 | +5.00% | Aug 9 |
| MLBh2h — Away | Elite | — | +160 | +147 | +5.00% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Away | Elite | — | +710 | +108 | +74.32% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Away | Elite | — | +725 | +105 | +75.15% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Home | Elite | — | -400 | -139 | -37.55% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Away | Elite | — | BD Bodog | +1000 | +124 | +79.64% | Aug 9 |
| MLBh2h — Away | Elite | — | +1000 | +124 | +79.64% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Home | Elite | — | +600 | -154 | +76.44% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBtotals — Under 9.5 | Elite | — | -175 | -130 | -12.59% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Home | Lean | — | -1420 | +117 | -102.72% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Home | Lean | — | -1150 | +116 | -98.72% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Away | Elite | — | +135 | +131 | +1.70% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Home | Elite | — | +155 | -180 | +39.00% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Away | Elite | — | +410 | +133 | +54.31% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Away | Elite | — | +700 | +105 | +87.19% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Away | Elite | — | +700 | +106 | +88.56% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBtotals — Under 9.5 | Lean | — | +110 | -130 | +15.75% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBtotals — Under 8.5 | Lean | — | +110 | -130 | +15.75% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBtotals — Under 9.5 | Elite | — | +120 | -130 | +19.58% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBtotals — Under 9.5 | Elite | — | +137 | -120 | +22.64% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Away | Lean | — | +140 | +157 | -7.08% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Away | Lean | — | +140 | +145 | -2.08% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Away | Elite | — | +464 | +131 | +49.78% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Home | Elite | — | +170 | +114 | +20.74% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Home | Elite | — | +170 | +120 | +18.52% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Away | Strong | — | +155 | +145 | +2.00% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Away | Elite | — | +150 | +152 | -0.80% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Home | Elite | — | BD Bodog | +180 | +107 | +26.07% | Aug 9 |
| MLBh2h — Home | Elite | — | +180 | +107 | +26.07% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Away | Elite | — | +156 | +156 | +8.57% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBtotals — Over 9.5 | Lean | — | -108 | +100 | -3.85% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBtotals — Over 9.5 | Lean | — | -104 | -106 | -0.91% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBtotals — Over 8.5 | Lean | — | +170 | -115 | +30.76% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBtotals — Under 10.5 | Lean | — | -150 | -210 | +11.43% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBtotals — Under 9.5 | Strong | — | BD Bodog | +115 | -120 | +14.73% | Aug 9 |
| MLBtotals — Under 9.5 | Strong | — | +115 | -118 | +14.07% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBtotals — Under 9.5 | Strong | — | +115 | -120 | +14.73% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBspreads — Away 1.5 | Elite | — | -115 | -175 | +15.95% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBspreads — Away 1.5 | Elite | — | BD Bodog | -115 | -175 | +15.95% | Aug 9 |
| MLBspreads — Away 1.5 | Elite | — | -115 | -170 | +15.05% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBspreads — Away 1.5 | Elite | — | -115 | -175 | +15.95% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Home | Lean | — | -380 | -140 | -35.71% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Home | Lean | — | -170 | -136 | -9.26% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Home | Lean | — | -162 | -140 | -6.00% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Home | Elite | — | -293 | +138 | -77.44% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Home | Elite | — | +190 | -155 | +43.27% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Home | Elite | — | +195 | -154 | +44.09% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Home | Elite | — | -140 | -162 | +5.66% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Home | Elite | — | +145 | -166 | +7.95% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBspreads — Home 1.5 | Lean | — | -105 | -105 | 0.00% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBalternate_spreads — Home 2.5 | Lean | — | -160 | -160 | 0.00% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBtotals — Under 8.5 | Lean | — | +105 | +105 | 0.00% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBtotals — Under 8.5 | Lean | — | -110 | -110 | 0.00% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBspreads — Home 1.5 | Lean | — | BT BetUS | -105 | -105 | 0.00% | Aug 9 |
| MLBalternate_totals — Under 9.5 | Lean | — | -150 | -150 | 0.00% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBalternate_totals — Over 7.5 | Lean | — | -135 | -135 | -4.44% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBalternate_totals — Over 9.5 | Lean | — | +140 | +140 | 0.00% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBtotals — Under 8.5 | Lean | — | -105 | -105 | +2.38% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBShohei Ohtani — Over 1.5 | Lean | — | +200 | +200 | 0.00% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBRyan Waldschmidt — Under 0.5 | Lean | — | +210 | +210 | -47.62% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBtotals — Under 8.5 | Lean | — | -110 | -110 | +5.49% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBtotals — Under 8.5 | Lean | — | -110 | -110 | 0.00% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBBrandon Pfaadt — Under 5.5 | Lean | — | +115 | +115 | 0.00% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBalternate_spreads — Home 4.5 | Lean | — | -375 | -375 | 0.00% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Home | Lean | — | +162 | +162 | 0.00% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBtotals — Under 8.5 | Lean | — | -109 | -109 | 0.00% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBFreddie Freeman — Under 1.5 | Lean | — | +125 | +125 | -25.00% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBMookie Betts — Under 1.5 | Lean | — | +105 | -150 | +18.70% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBMookie Betts — Under 1.5 | Lean | — | -140 | -140 | 0.00% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBRyan Waldschmidt — Under 0.5 | Lean | — | +165 | -118 | +30.28% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBtotals — Under 8.5 | Lean | — | +105 | -115 | +8.80% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBtotals — Over 8.5 | Lean | — | +105 | -115 | +8.80% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBtotals — Over 8.5 | Lean | — | +108 | -115 | +10.12% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBtotals — Under 7.5 | Elite | — | -101 | -119 | +7.53% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBtotals — Under 7.5 | Elite | — | +100 | -120 | +8.33% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBtotals — Under 10.5 | Elite | — | +150 | -185 | +38.38% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBspreads — Away -1.5 | Lean | — | +102 | -121 | +9.58% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Home | Lean | — | -345 | +125 | -74.44% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Away | Strong | — | -550 | -190 | +3.90% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Away | Lean | — | -170 | -195 | +4.75% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Away | Lean | — | -105 | -184 | +2.82% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Home | Lean | — | -280 | -144 | -24.85% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Home | Lean | — | +120 | +108 | +5.45% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Away | Strong | — | -175 | +140 | -52.73% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Home | Strong | — | -310 | +122 | -67.85% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Away | Elite | — | +101 | -114 | +6.61% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Away | Elite | — | +267 | -148 | +54.34% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Away | Elite | — | +270 | -155 | +55.54% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Away | Elite | — | -140 | +135 | -37.08% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Home | Strong | — | -160 | -140 | +51.02% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Home | Elite | — | -152 | +124 | -35.11% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Home | Elite | — | -135 | +115 | -23.51% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBtotals — Under 7.5 | Elite | — | +135 | +105 | +12.77% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBtotals — Under 5.5 | Elite | — | +135 | +190 | -23.40% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBspreads — Home -1.5 | Elite | — | +155 | +149 | -19.14% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Home | Strong | — | -300 | +135 | -95.83% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Away | Lean | — | -140 | +137 | -38.25% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Home | Strong | — | -253 | -140 | -19.64% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Home | Lean | — | -140 | -124 | +38.76% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Away | Lean | — | -115 | -120 | +3.97% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Away | Lean | — | -900 | +142 | -36.78% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Home | Elite | — | +155 | -160 | +36.27% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Home | Lean | — | -280 | -145 | -10.70% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Home | Lean | — | +160 | +115 | +2.27% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBh2h — Away | Lean | — | -235 | +143 | -8.00% | Aug 9 | |
| MLBspreads — Away 1.5 | Elite | — | +108 | -163 | 0.00% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBh2h — Away | Elite | — | +205 | +111 | 0.00% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBtotals — Under 7.5 | Lean | — | +105 | -110 | 0.00% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBtotals — Under 7.5 | Lean | — | -109 | -109 | 0.00% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBalternate_totals — Over 9 | Lean | — | +185 | +185 | 0.00% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBh2h — Away | Elite | — | +112 | +131 | 0.00% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBteam_totals:Chicago White Sox — Under 3.5 | Lean | — | -115 | -115 | 0.00% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBalternate_spreads — Away -3.5 | Strong | — | +210 | +210 | +1.59% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBspreads — Away 1.5 | Lean | — | -158 | -158 | 0.00% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBalternate_totals — Under 7.5 | Lean | — | -105 | -105 | 0.00% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBh2h — Away | Lean | — | -155 | -155 | 0.00% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBalternate_totals — Under 8 | Lean | — | -124 | -124 | 0.00% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBalternate_spreads — Home -2.5 | Lean | — | +210 | +210 | +3.13% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBJose Ramirez — Under 1.5 | Lean | — | +125 | +125 | 0.00% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBalternate_totals — Under 8 | Lean | — | -124 | -124 | 0.00% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBspreads — Home -1.5 | Lean | — | +160 | +160 | 0.00% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBalternate_totals — Over 7 | Lean | — | -128 | -128 | 0.00% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBalternate_totals — Under 6.5 | Lean | — | +155 | +155 | 0.00% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBAnthony Kay — Over 3.5 | Lean | — | -130 | -130 | -1.64% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBMasyn Winn — Under 1.5 | Strong | — | +100 | +100 | -23.08% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBBrandon Nimmo — Under 1.5 | Lean | — | +100 | +100 | 0.00% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBJordan Walker — Over 1.5 | Lean | — | -105 | -105 | +4.76% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBtotals — Under 7.5 | Lean | — | +110 | +110 | 0.00% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBRiley Greene — Under 1.5 | Lean | — | +105 | +105 | 0.00% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBLuis Campusano — Under 0.5 | Lean | — | +110 | +110 | 0.00% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBspreads — Home 1.5 | Elite | — | YW YouWager | -150 | -150 | 0.00% | Aug 8 |
| MLBspreads — Away 1.5 | Strong | — | -140 | -140 | 0.00% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBspreads — Home -1.5 | Lean | — | +160 | +160 | +1.14% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBYordan Alvarez — Under 0.5 | Lean | — | +200 | +200 | 0.00% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBalternate_spreads — Home 3.5 | Elite | — | -195 | -195 | 0.00% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBBraden Montgomery — Over 0.5 | Lean | — | -118 | -118 | 0.00% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBtotals — Under 9.5 | Lean | — | -109 | -109 | 0.00% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBtotals — Under 7.5 | Lean | — | -105 | -105 | 0.00% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBtotals — Under 9.5 | Lean | — | -109 | -109 | 0.00% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBtotals — Over 9.5 | Lean | — | +105 | +105 | 0.00% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBalternate_spreads — Away -3.5 | Lean | — | +205 | +205 | +1.61% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBteam_totals:Chicago White Sox — Over 3.5 | Lean | — | +116 | +116 | -1.89% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBtotals — Under 7.5 | Lean | — | -109 | -109 | 0.00% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBalternate_totals — Over 10.5 | Lean | — | +130 | +130 | 0.00% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBJake Bauers — Over 0.5 | Lean | — | -135 | -135 | 0.00% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBtotals — Under 7.5 | Lean | — | -105 | -105 | 0.00% | Aug 8 | |
| MLBspreads — Home -1.5 | Lean | — | +160 | +160 | 0.00% | Aug 8 |
Result is the real game outcome (the stat the prop settled on); CLV is the no-vig probability gap between your locked price and the closing price. A dash means that dimension is not yet determinable — never a guess.