44,239 surfaced this week ·70,218 priced at the close ·78,587 graded win or loss ·70,043 started with no close captured, kept out of the CLV · 17,421 first seen after the start, graded apart from the record
Not logged: College football Sep 21–29. No picks were recorded for those days, so the record has none to grade.
Betting Desk · Track Record
Public Pick Ledger
About this
Closing-line value measures how smart you were the day you placed the bet, not how lucky you got. Every edge the engine surfaces is logged the moment it appears and graded against the closing line once the market settles. No cherry-picking, no deleted losers — the ledger keeps itself.
Our price beat the book's own close on 81.1% of 23,681 edges where the close moved, averaging +3.17% of closing-line value.
The white tick is a coin flip. We land to the right of it: more often than not, the book's own closing number agreed the price we flagged was too good. 7,447 finished level with the close, counted neither way. 36,836 more settled against our own last pregame look rather than a book's close, so they are not in this rate.
Move across the line to read any day; press it to list that day's picks.
Where the market opened, where it closed
No open and close prices yet
The close
How this is measured. Our last price before tip, or the book's own stamped close where the feed has it.By edge tier
The bigger the edge we flagged, the more the close moved our way.
- EliteEV ≥ 4%+5.86%avg vs close
- Beat the close
- 83.0%
- Closes measured
- 1,980
- StrongEV 2.5–4%+4.11%avg vs close
- Beat the close
- 83.5%
- Closes measured
- 2,040
- LeanEV < 2.5%+2.79%avg vs close
- Beat the close
- 80.7%
- Closes measured
- 19,661
Each tier is measured against the book's own closing number. The white tick on each track is a coin flip. Level with the close, in neither half: Elite 648 · Strong 666 · Lean 6,133.
Closing-line value, day by day
The average gap between the price we flagged and the book's own close, read at the end of every day.
Dashed line: level with the close. Above it, our prices beat the closing number on average.
Month by month
Every month on the floor beat the close more often than not.
Beat the closeLevelMissed· bar height = closes that month
October: 14,760 of 18,336 decided closes beat the close (80.5%); 5,975 finished level.
Pick'em picks, graded on their own payout
Every pick the apps posted · last 30 days
Standard
- Backed · bar to clear
- 51.1%
- Backed · return per pick
- −15.2%
- Every posted pick · decided
- 90,173 of 91,616
- Hit · over / under
- 47.5% / 51.8%
- Bar on its own payout · over / under
- 54.1% / 54.6%
- Hit on stated payouts · over / under
- 47.5% / 51.8%
- Return per pick · over / under
- −12.2% / −5.2%
- Payout set in the app
- 0
- Pick6 table
- unverified
The board formed a fair on 5,676 of 91,616 priced picks and backed 144 that were decided; 74,176 had no fair it would use; 11,764 are not read yet. Graded on the standard bar of a 3-pick Power entry, divided by the pick's own multiplier where the app states one (1.78x to 2.29x posted). 15,864 rest on Pick6's base payouts, which are unverified on Pick6's own page.
Boost
- Backed · bar to clear
- —
- Backed · return per pick
- —
- Every posted pick · decided
- 79,810 of 80,756
- Hit · over / under
- 19.2% / 43.8%
- Bar on its own payout · over / under
- 24.5% / 49.6%
- Hit on stated payouts · over / under
- 19.1% / 43.8%
- Return per pick · over / under
- −28.8% / −11.2%
- Payout set in the app
- 36,121
- Pick6 table
- unverified
The board formed a fair on 962 of 44,169 priced picks and backed 36 that were decided; 43,207 had no fair it would use. Each graded on its own bar: the standard bar divided by its multiplier (1.01x to 20x posted). The app set 36,121 of these payouts in the lineup, so they are graded hit or miss only. 6,263 rest on Pick6's base payouts, which are unverified on Pick6's own page.
Discount
- Backed · bar to clear
- —
- Backed · return per pick
- —
- Every posted pick · decided
- 46,791 of 47,369
- Hit · over / under
- 64.7% / 58.5%
- Bar on its own payout · over / under
- 71.2% / 65.3%
- Hit on stated payouts · over / under
- 62.5% / 58.5%
- Return per pick · over / under
- −11.9% / −10.2%
- Payout set in the app
- 22,672
- Pick6 table
- unverified
The board formed a fair on 1,402 of 24,393 priced picks and backed 3 that were decided; 22,991 had no fair it would use. Each graded on its own bar: the standard bar divided by its multiplier (0.6x to 3x posted). The app set 22,672 of these payouts in the lineup, so they are graded hit or miss only. 5,939 rest on Pick6's base payouts, which are unverified on Pick6's own page.
17,509 more were posted with signals that disagreed on their kind; they are graded hit or miss and left out of the bands.
How the pick'em record is read
The big number reads only the picks the board backed: when the app first posted the pick, the board's fair for that side, read from the book prices we archived at that minute, cleared the pick's own bar. Of a line's two sides the board backs at most one, so this record is never the 50% a two-sided board splits into; it prints at 100 decided picks, with its count beside it. Below it are every pick the apps posted, not our picks. Each is the last line the app posted before the start; picks posted only once the game began are left out. The apps post both sides of most lines and each side is graded as a pick, so overs and unders are read apart; together they would always split one hit and one miss. Hit rate is over decided picks (pushes and voids apart) and prints at 100 a side. A pick's bar is the hit rate it needs to break even on a 3-pick Power entry: the standard bar, divided by the pick's own multiplier when the app states one, so on Underdog a 1.30x boost needs about 42% where its standard pick needs 55%. Return is per pick on that entry. When the app sets a payout in the lineup and publishes no figure, the pick is graded hit or miss only.
By sportsbook
Books where our edges beat the book's own close — ranked by average closing-line value.
- Still pricingBovada2,518 closes · 246E / 280S / 1992L640 level with the close, not in the rate · One book · 2 stored spellings mergedEdges we surfaced at Bovada beat Bovada's own closing number on 86.3% of the closes that moved, averaging +4.07% closing-line value across 2,518 measured closes. 640 closed level and sit in neither half. We stored this book's name 2 different ways over the years; it is one book and this is its whole record.Beat close86.3%+4.07%avg vs close
- Still pricingHard Rock Bet3,060 closes · 292E / 199S / 2569L744 level with the close, not in the rate · One book · 3 stored spellings mergedEdges we surfaced at Hard Rock Bet beat Hard Rock Bet's own closing number on 84.8% of the closes that moved, averaging +3.89% closing-line value across 3,060 measured closes. 744 closed level and sit in neither half. We stored this book's name 3 different ways over the years; it is one book and this is its whole record.Beat close84.8%+3.89%avg vs close
- Still pricingProphetX3,231 closes · 319E / 394S / 2518L715 level with the close, not in the rateEdges we surfaced at ProphetX beat ProphetX's own closing number on 76.8% of the closes that moved, averaging +3.82% closing-line value across 3,231 measured closes. 715 closed level and sit in neither half.Beat close76.8%+3.82%avg vs close
- Still pricingtheScore Bet3,706 closes · 220E / 254S / 3232L1,036 level with the close, not in the rateEdges we surfaced at theScore Bet beat theScore Bet's own closing number on 88.5% of the closes that moved, averaging +3.80% closing-line value across 3,706 measured closes. 1,036 closed level and sit in neither half.Beat close88.5%+3.80%avg vs close
- Still pricingDraftKings3,694 closes · 309E / 287S / 3098L682 level with the close, not in the rateEdges we surfaced at DraftKings beat DraftKings's own closing number on 83.2% of the closes that moved, averaging +3.43% closing-line value across 3,694 measured closes. 682 closed level and sit in neither half.Beat close83.2%+3.43%avg vs close
- Still pricingFanatics260 closes · 32E / 13S / 215L66 level with the close, not in the rateEdges we surfaced at Fanatics beat Fanatics's own closing number on 83.5% of the closes that moved, averaging +3.17% closing-line value across 260 measured closes. 66 closed level and sit in neither half.Beat close83.5%+3.17%avg vs close
- Still pricingBetMGM3,539 closes · 318E / 395S / 2826L1,185 level with the close, not in the rateEdges we surfaced at BetMGM beat BetMGM's own closing number on 86.6% of the closes that moved, averaging +3.10% closing-line value across 3,539 measured closes. 1,185 closed level and sit in neither half.Beat close86.6%+3.10%avg vs close
- Still pricingBetOnline525 closes · 8E / 17S / 500L52 level with the close, not in the rate · One book · 3 stored spellings mergedEdges we surfaced at BetOnline beat BetOnline's own closing number on 86.0% of the closes that moved, averaging +3.07% closing-line value across 525 measured closes. 52 closed level and sit in neither half. We stored this book's name 3 different ways over the years; it is one book and this is its whole record.Beat close86.0%+3.07%avg vs close
- Still pricingBetRivers609 closes · 42E / 84S / 483L151 level with the close, not in the rateEdges we surfaced at BetRivers beat BetRivers's own closing number on 84.1% of the closes that moved, averaging +3.06% closing-line value across 609 measured closes. 151 closed level and sit in neither half.Beat close84.1%+3.06%avg vs close
- Still pricingCaesars512 closes · 33E / 38S / 441L164 level with the close, not in the rateEdges we surfaced at Caesars beat Caesars's own closing number on 80.2% of the closes that moved, averaging +2.76% closing-line value across 512 measured closes. 164 closed level and sit in neither half.Beat close80.2%+2.76%avg vs close
- Still pricingEverygame185 closes · 22E / 17S / 146L47 level with the close, not in the rateEdges we surfaced at Everygame beat Everygame's own closing number on 83.3% of the closes that moved, averaging +2.61% closing-line value across 185 measured closes. 47 closed level and sit in neither half.Beat close83.3%+2.61%avg vs close
- Still pricingFanDuel3,880 closes · 228E / 245S / 3407L677 level with the close, not in the rateEdges we surfaced at FanDuel beat FanDuel's own closing number on 78.5% of the closes that moved, averaging +2.52% closing-line value across 3,880 measured closes. 677 closed level and sit in neither half.Beat close78.5%+2.52%avg vs close
- Still pricingYouWager178 closes · 15E / 7S / 156L41 level with the close, not in the rateEdges we surfaced at YouWager beat YouWager's own closing number on 83.9% of the closes that moved, averaging +2.32% closing-line value across 178 measured closes. 41 closed level and sit in neither half.Beat close83.9%+2.32%avg vs close
- Still pricingNovig3,551 closes · 428E / 395S / 2728L999 level with the close, not in the rateEdges we surfaced at Novig beat Novig's own closing number on 74.6% of the closes that moved, averaging +2.13% closing-line value across 3,551 measured closes. 999 closed level and sit in neither half.Beat close74.6%+2.13%avg vs close
- Still pricingPinnacle1,546 closes · 102E / 61S / 1383L216 level with the close, not in the rateEdges we surfaced at Pinnacle beat Pinnacle's own closing number on 61.1% of the closes that moved, averaging +1.25% closing-line value across 1,546 measured closes. 216 closed level and sit in neither half.Beat close61.1%+1.25%avg vs close
Beat-close is the share of a book's measured edges whose locked number beat that book's own closing number; avg CLV is the no-vig probability gap. A book is listed once it has 100 measured closes and is beating them more often than not with a positive average. One operator gets one row even when we stored its name several ways, and a book we no longer price keeps its record with the date of its last price stated.
Methodology
Every edge starts as a de-vigged fair line built from the sharpest available market consensus. When the engine finds a price that beats that fair line, it logs the offer — sport, market, side, book, price, and timestamp — exactly once. After the game starts, a settle pass captures the closing price at that same book and computes the realized closing-line value. Positive CLV means the locked number beat where the market settled; that is the honest, repeatable proof a process works.
Every graded pick
200 of 200 shown
One day so far — the shape of a record reads after a couple of weeks of picks.
Result is the real game outcome (the stat the prop settled on); CLV is the no-vig probability gap between your locked price and the closing price. A dash means that dimension is not yet determinable — never a guess.