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Overlapping cross-book lines: the window where both legs win, the locked baseline, and the price of every lottery — ranked by EV.
The Scout’s Notebook
A middle is a pair of bets on overlapping lines — an Over at a low number and an Under at a higher one — that returns a locked baseline either way and a jackpot if the final result lands in the gap between them. It is a low-cost lottery, not a guaranteed win.
Most middles cost a sliver of vig to hold and pay a large multiple when the number lands inside the window. The card makes the trade explicit: what a full cycle costs, what the jackpot is, and the market-implied probability of the result finishing in the gap.
An arbitrage locks a guaranteed profit no matter the result, while a middle usually costs a small amount to hold and only turns a profit when the final number lands between the two lines. Middles trade a certain small loss for a shot at a large payout.
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