Key Numbers, in plain words
A key number is a final margin that happens much more often than the numbers around it. In football, scoring comes in threes and sevens, so games end by 3 and by 7 far more than by 2, 4, 5 or 8. Lines that sit on or move across those numbers carry more weight than the half point suggests.
We counted every completed NFL game in our archive, regular season and playoffs, from Sep 1999 to Oct 26, 2026: 7,383 games. 1,119 of them ended by exactly 3, which is 15.2%, and 668 by exactly 7, which is 9.0%. The next most common margin, 6, came up 6.1% of the time.
That is why a move from -2.5 to -3, or from -6.5 to -7, is a big move, and why books charge more to buy a half point onto or off those numbers. It is also why teasers that cross both 3 and 7 were once so popular, and why books have since repriced them. Rules change and scoring shifts over time, so treat these as a long-run pattern, not a promise about Sunday.
The idea, drawn
Worked example · from our data
Where NFL games actually end
- Games
- 7,383
- Ended by 3
- 1,119 (15.2%)
- Ended by 7
- 668 (9.0%)
- Window
- Sep 1999 to Oct 26, 2026
- Margin of exactly 3: 1,119 / 7,383 = 15.2%.
- Margin of exactly 7: 668 / 7,383 = 9.0%.
- Together: 1,787 / 7,383 = 24.2%, about one game in four.
A spread that crosses 3 or 7 changes the result of far more bets than one that crosses 5.
Our NFL results archive: every completed game, regular season and playoffs, Sep 1999 to Oct 26, 2026. Counted Oct 29, 2026.