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NFL BETTING · HIT RATES
How often every player clears the number the desks are hanging — last 5, last 10, and season, graded against real game logs. Where no desk posts him, the line is his own season median and the row says so. Missed weeks are excluded, never counted as zeros.
The Scout’s Notebook
An NFL prop hit rate is how often a player has cleared a given number over a sample — his last 5 games, his last 10, or the full season. In season the board grades each player against the number the sportsbooks are actually hanging for his next game, and prints how many desks agree on it. Where no desk posts that family for that player, it falls back to his own season median, says how many desks were checked and when, and calls that number ours rather than a price.
Most families on this board will re-anchor to a real book number once game-day odds are posted. Six never will: quarterback hits, passes defended, field goals attempted, field goals from 40+, field goals from 50+ and longest field goal are absent from both odds catalogues we pull, so no book anywhere posts them. Those boards say so on their own masthead and stay research tools — real, gradeable history with no bet behind it.
Every rate is graded per game from regular-season logs. A week a player missed is excluded rather than counted as a zero, pushes on the number are dropped from the denominator, and fewer than three graded games shows a dash instead of a percentage.
From the sportsbooks, where they post it: the board reads every desk's newest price for that player's next game, takes the line the most desks agree on, breaks a tie toward the lower number and shows the depth beside it — "2 of 8 desks". Where no desk posts him in that family, the row falls back to his own season median snapped to a half point, marks that number ours, and says how many desks were checked and when.
No. Most families read a posted line the moment the desks hang one, but quarterback hits, passes defended, field goals attempted, field goals from 40+, field goals from 50+ and longest field goal have no market in either odds catalogue, so those six boards grade against our own median permanently. They are research boards: the history is real, but there is no bet to place on them.
A hit rate is a description of what already happened, not a forecast. It becomes useful when the role behind it is stable and the number it is graded against is close to the number you can actually bet — which is why this board shows games played beside every window and flags any window shorter than its own name.
Dynatyze Betting is analytics and education for people 21 and over. It is not a sportsbook: no wager is ever placed on Dynatyze — the tools help you find and price the best available bet elsewhere. If gambling stops being fun, help is free and confidential at 1-800-GAMBLER.
