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NFL BETTING · HIT RATES
How often every player clears his own season median — last 5, last 10, and season, graded against real game logs. Missed weeks are excluded, never counted as zeros.
The Scout’s Notebook
An NFL prop hit rate is how often a player has cleared a given number over a sample — his last 5 games, his last 10, or the full season. Between seasons there are no NFL prop lines to measure against, so this board grades every player against his own season median instead and labels that number a proxy on every row.
Most families on this board will re-anchor to a real book number once game-day odds ingest. Six never will: quarterback hits, passes defended, field goals attempted, field goals from 40+, field goals from 50+ and longest field goal are absent from both odds catalogues we pull, so no book anywhere posts them. Those boards say so on their own masthead and stay research tools — real, gradeable history with no bet behind it.
Every rate is graded per game from regular-season logs. A week a player missed is excluded rather than counted as a zero, pushes on the number are dropped from the denominator, and fewer than three graded games shows a dash instead of a percentage.
Because it is the player's own season median snapped to a half point, not a number a sportsbook posted. Between NFL seasons no book hangs player props at all, so grading against a median is the only honest way to show hit rates — and the board labels every line proxy rather than letting it read as a market number.
No. Most do, but quarterback hits, passes defended, field goals attempted, field goals from 40+, field goals from 50+ and longest field goal have no market in either odds catalogue, so those six boards will keep grading against the proxy line permanently. They are research boards: the history is real, but there is no bet to place on them.
A hit rate is a description of what already happened, not a forecast. It becomes useful when the role behind it is stable and the number it is graded against is close to the number you can actually bet — which is why this board shows games played beside every window and flags any window shorter than its own name.
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