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Reading every designed carry of the season — the lane each back runs through, and what each front actually gives up there.
The Scout’s Notebook
A rushing gap matchup asks a narrower question than a yards-per-carry average does: not whether a defense is good against the run, but whether it is bad in the specific lanes a specific back actually runs through. A front can give up half a yard more than the league overall and still be a poor matchup for a runner whose carries all go somewhere that front holds up.
Everything on this desk is arithmetic over stored play-by-play. No projection, no model, no simulation — a lane rate is carries and yards divided, and the swing beside a back's name is the difference between what this front gives up in his lanes and what an average front does.
Small samples are the whole risk in a split like this, so the desk refuses rather than rounds. A defensive lane with too few carries against it shows a dash instead of a rate, a back's own lane needs a share of his real workload before it counts, and if the lanes that survive those floors no longer cover enough of what he actually does, the matchup number is withheld — because a weighted number built on a third of a workload says more about the gaps than about the matchup.
Read the swing as a modifier, not a forecast. It is what this front is worth on top of what the back's own season rate already tells you, which is why both numbers sit on the row: a runner at 5.15 a carry with a +0.28 swing and one at 3.28 with a +0.66 are different bets even though the second has the bigger edge.
Because a season yards-per-carry allowed is one number for seven very different lanes, and defenses are rarely bad in all of them. The board's own opening example is a front that gave up half a yard more than the league overall while being worth +0.44 to one back and −0.33 to another — the same front, the same season, opposite conclusions.
That the sample behind that lane is too small to publish a rate. It is a measurement refusing to be made, not a zero and not a missing value, and the lane is excluded from the weighted number rather than being counted as average.
No, and it should not be read as if it does. The lanes are where the ball went and what was given up there; the offensive line, the game script and the score are not in this number. It is one input to a rushing read, sized to be checked against the others rather than to replace them.
Learn more: The coverage room — the passing twin
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