NFL Betting Desk · The Dynatyze Line
The Line's NFL Report Card
Every settled NFL moneyline gets graded against the close — the last pregame quote, the sharpest number a market ever prints. No cherry-picking, no deleted misses.
Does the number come true?
Our fair probability vs how often those bets actually hit.
Across 60 settled bets, our fair number lands inside its 95% band in 0 of 1 bucket carrying 25+ bets, and across all 5 buckets it sits 30.3pp off the diagonal, bet-weighted. Our heaviest bucket priced 35 bets near 54%; they hit 14% — 40pp from the number we quoted.
Every +EV bet we surfaced, graded win or loss against the game log — grouped by our fair probability, not cherry-picked. Settles where a box score can prove it: NFL.
50 NFL games graded so far — read everything below as direction, not verdict. A credible long-run read arrives around 100+ games.
The record, week by week
Click a column for that week’s detail · bar height = beat-close rate, bar width is fixed
W2 is the best week on the board: 75% of that slate's leans were confirmed by the close. A column is greyed when fewer than 8 games have settled — it is drawn, but never coloured as a verdict.
When The Line disagrees with the crowd
Bucketed by how much harder The Line leaned than the field at open.
- Avg CLV
- -1.62%
- Avg edge
- 0.4pp
- Avg CLV
- -10.20%
- Avg edge
- 1.4pp
Every settled game counted — confirmed or not.
Is The Line calibrated?
Predicted (open) probability vs where the market actually closed.
Not plotted: the 70–80% bin with 1 read. A bin needs eight reads before its closing figure is drawn — a verdict from one game is not a verdict.
Recently graded
Tennessee Titans vs CHI0.659→48-21.8115NFL
Indianapolis Colts vs DET0.363→56-13.2415
Denver Broncos vs MIN1.370→65-5.5515NFL
Dallas Cowboys vs NO1.248→38-22.6915NFL
Philadelphia Eagles vs CIN0.357→58+1.5715NFL
Kansas City Chiefs vs SEA1.052→48-6.0415NFL
Arizona Cardinals at GB1.756→49-9.7615NFL
New York Jets vs NYG0.141→44+7.7915NFL
Jacksonville Jaguars vs TB1.447→39-16.5115NFL
Atlanta Falcons at MIA0.465→69+6.4915NFL
Houston Texans at CAR0.756→52-4.5214NFL
Baltimore Ravens vs WAS0.760→63+5.8015NFLThe home sidefield0.069→60-13.651
Los Angeles Chargers vs LAR0.465→60-6.8614NFL
San Francisco 49ers at LV0.246→39-16.7414NFL
New England Patriots at CLE0.457→56-0.6914NFL
Pittsburgh Steelers at BUF0.644→45+3.8614Tennessee Titans vs SEA0.937→42+13.8214Arizona Cardinals vs DAL0.252→46-13.7215NFLKansas City Chiefs at TB0.368→64-4.8915NFL
Cincinnati Bengals vs CHI0.147→38-24.4115NFLNew England Patriots vs PHI0.053→53+0.0015NFL
Miami Dolphins vs NYG0.361→62+1.4615NFL
New Orleans Saints at LAR0.948→48+2.8015NFL
Cleveland Browns vs BUF0.459→57-2.1415NFLIndianapolis Colts vs ATL0.564→62-2.9515NFL
Minnesota Vikings vs BAL0.761→57-5.6015NFL
Detroit Lions vs WAS0.049→49+0.0015Denver Broncos vs GB0.668→70+2.9812NFLJacksonville Jaguars vs CAR0.347→45-3.2412NFLPittsburgh Steelers vs NYJ0.054→45-20.2412
Seattle Seahawks vs DAL0.659→56-4.3215NFLBaltimore Ravens vs PHI0.537→37+2.5515NFLNew Orleans Saints vs JAX1.357→58+3.5115NFL
Los Angeles Rams at KC0.256→55-2.2115NFL
Chicago Bears vs CLE0.439→41+6.5615NFL
Carolina Panthers at BUF0.660→59-0.5815NFL
New York Giants vs MIN0.346→47+3.6515Miami Dolphins at WAS0.362→61+0.2411NFLNew York Jets vs TB0.331→33+7.3411NFLDenver Broncos at ATL0.437→40+8.0611Tennessee Titans at SF0.168→71+3.1913NFLLos Angeles Chargers at HOU0.348→50+4.7613NFL
Las Vegas Raiders vs ARI0.245→41-8.4113NFLIndianapolis Colts at NE0.159→61+2.9413NFLCincinnati Bengals vs DET0.471→70+0.2513NFL
Green Bay Packers at PIT0.257→58+0.9413Arizona Cardinals vs CAR0.152→53+1.6714What “the close” means here
On 41 games the close is now the book's own final number, stamped the moment it came down.
Games graded on the last number we saw before kickoff. Every grade above sits on this basis today.
Closing prices the book itself stamped, across 41 games. As these fill in, this record stops being graded against an estimate.